11 ms·

Tesla delays new 'affordable EV/stripped down Model Y' in the US

54 points by TheAlchemist 1y ago

darthrupert 1y ago
>Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years It's nowhere even close to solving it, and it's also no longer even the best at trying. Elon Musk is a pathological liar.
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  Yep. Everybody with a brain knows that. The richest man on the planet is a tech con man. And yet, this post will get flagged and downvoted into oblivion. How did we get there ? As for those downvoting - nope, I'm not hating for him or anything like that. It's just that I like to tell my kids that good guys can win. And Elon is not that.
  - BLKNSLVR 1y ago
    I was willing to forgive Elon some of his eccentricities. Until he repeated, more than once, obviously egregious untruths of Trump's. I will admit I was late to the realisation. Elon will say whatever he feels will progress his agenda, no matter how far disconnected from reality. He's jumped the shark and is doing far more harm than good. He needs to shrink into obscurity for his own, and the rest of the world's, good.
- Rover222 1y ago
  [dead]
jqpabc123 1y ago
Bottom line: Tesla has no actual product to justify the stock's sky high price. GM, Ford, Toyota etc. all have a price to earning ratio (P/E) of less than 10. Tesla has a P/E of 120. But, but, but --- Tesla is more than just an auto manufacturer. Again, there is little in the way of actual product to justify this viewpoint. 90 percent of their income is from autos. But, but, but --- Tesla is a "growth stock" with huge future potential. Again, the actual data shows otherwise. Sales in 2024 actually declined. The only reason Tesla has a P/E of 120 is because the so called "smart money" (aka institutional investors) remain bought into Musk's fantasy in a big way. Musk's best skill is con artistry and Wall Street is one of his biggest marks.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  Hell, even Tesla’s leadership knows the Robotaxi is—at best—a minor profit centre if it works [1]. [1] https://www.theinformation.com/articles/electric-inside-tesla-analysts-predicted-robotaxi-lose-money https://www.theinformation.com/articles/electric-inside-tesl...
- _DeadFred_ 1y ago
  90% of their income isn't DIRECT auto sales though. Q4 2024 30% of that 'auto income' is selling credits. In Q4 2024, Tesla recorded a $600 million gain from revaluing its Bitcoin holdings In Q4 2024 alone, Tesla earned $692 million from selling regulatory credits or carbon credits, accounting for nearly 30% of its quarterly net income of $2.33 billion. Tesla better hope Trump doesn't move away from 'environmental credits' rules. Probably won't happen, Trump seems pretty green focused. https://carboncredits.com/teslas-carbon-credit-revenue-soars-to-2-76-billion-amid-profit-drop/ https://carboncredits.com/teslas-carbon-credit-revenue-soars...
  - _DeadFred_ 1y ago
    All that to say Tesla's current income is much more vulnerable than just to auto sales.
- spiderfarmer 1y ago
  Those institutional investors deserve to lose every penny if they truly believe AI and robotics are going to justify that valuation. Musk and the investors are just keeping up appearances to avoid losing their money. And he appears to be out of ideas for futuristic projects, judging by his recent, overly generic promise of “abundance”.
  - jqpabc123 1y ago
    But, but, but --- AI and robotics. Again, Telsa has no real product to show that they can do AI and robotics any better than they do autos. It's pure wishful thinking at this point. But, but, but --- robotaxis. Ditto --- same as above. The really ominous "death cross" signal for Tesla --- their sales are declining (down 9% last quarter in the US) while EV sales overall continue to grow at a robust pace (up 11% last quarter in the US). In other words, the competition is eating Tesla's lunch. But for some less than obvious reason, Wall Street continues to favor fantasy over facts. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-slump-automakers-winning-gm-vw-byd-2025-4?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-slump-automakers...
belter 1y ago
The delay is more likely due to zero demand. Just reason 129th not to own a Tesla: "Tesla speeds up odometers to avoid warranty repairs, US lawsuit claims" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43723865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43723865
- gruez 1y ago
  I'm disappointment how unrigorous that lawsuit is. Their argument basically relies on the fact there's a patent filing that vaguely mentions this, and that the odometer sped up even though the plaintiff's driving habits haven't changed. Those are certainly reasons to be suspicious, but aren't exactly smoking guns. Plenty of things are patented but aren't implemented in reality, and we only have the plaintiff's word that there's no other change in driving behavior that could have accounted for the extra mileage. If they're spending all this time drafting a legal complaint, surely they can do a carefully controlled empirical test?
  - belter 1y ago
    The lawsuit has low chances of succeeding but not on the merits. It exposes a regulatory gray area, both in the US and in the EU. Existing laws focus on tampering, not manufacturer accuracy. "Tesla odometer mileage vs actual miles discrepancy" - https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odometer_mileage_vs_actual_miles_discrepancy/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odome... "...Besides the disappointing result in the range test, the Tesla Model 3 had quite an unusual issue–its onboard trip meter was way off and essentially lied about the distance covered...." - https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norway-2025/ https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norwa... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43736091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43736091
    - gruez 1y ago
      >"Tesla odometer mileage vs actual miles discrepancy" - https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odome https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odome... This is just more of the same - vague anecdotes. Why dig up 2 year old reddit posts to try to prove your case, when you can definitively prove it with a day's worth of test drives? >"...Besides the disappointing result in the range test, the Tesla Model 3 had quite an unusual issue–its onboard trip meter was way off and essentially lied about the distance covered...." - https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norwa https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norwa... Is "trip meter" referring to the odometer, or the "estimated range" meter that's also displayed?
toomuchtodo 1y ago
Base model Teslas use LFP batteries from China.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  They're actively hiring teams to diversify away from the CATL dependency. They've starting hiring teams in India [0] and Malaysia [1] to work with alternative LFP suppliers. It's most likely Agratas in India (they manufacture the batteries used in Tata and JLR's EVs) and EVE Energy in Malaysia (they began an expansion outside Chin due to EU and US tariffs). [0] - https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/lsfouz https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/lsfouz [1] - https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/avoumb https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/avoumb
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    This works until Tariff Man suddenly alters the deal.
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      India and the US are about to announce a Bilateral Trade Agreement [0], which was already in the works during Trump 1. Musk visited Modi yesterday [1] and Vance is traveling to India in the next 2 days [2], so the BTA and sourcing from India is most likely the primary topic of conversation. The Modi admin has also been cultivating Trump and Stephen Miller adjacent advisors [3][4][5] at the Heritage and Hudson Foundation for a couple years now too, by trying to use Walter Russell Mead the same way Graham Allison acted as a conduit between China and the US. And besides that, the tariffs remain oriented as a de facto blockade against China, and as long as they remain at a rate above 60-70%, Chinese sourced suppliers remain price uncompetitive. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-reference-first-phase-trade-deal-says-india-trade-2025-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-india-after-talk-with-modi-2025-04-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Vance-to-meet-Modi-in-India-as-U.S.-China-tariff-war-rages https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Van... [3] - https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of-the-us-thinktank-scholars/ https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of... [4] - https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 [5] - https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/ https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/
monetus 1y ago
There will be no 'Volkswagen' tesla, the model Y is going the way of the GT-R, and Tesla's other ideas are vaporware. Lidar is a superior approach. Refusing to use it, while claiming superiority, reminds me of how a child copes with losing at their favorite video game.
- loandbehold 1y ago
  It doesn't need to be superior, it just needs to be good enough. It's something that has been proven in many technology battles. FSD has made an amazing progress over the last two years. If they solve last 1% of cases they will be in good position to beat Waymo on price as they scale. With ride sharing price is everything. People just go for cheapest rides. That's why cybercab is two-seater, they are trying to minimize cost per mile. Smaller car means cheaper car and less energy per mile.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > doesn't need to be superior, it just needs to be good enough And not hated. I’m personally pressing for heightened street legality requirements for cameras-only self driving in California, New York, Canada and the EU.
  - _DeadFred_ 1y ago
    I don't think people think through to the end enough. Lidar can't be tricked as easily. If Tesla were to attract a group of malicious actors that hated Tesla I wouldn't put it past those actors to figure out ways to confuse Tesla's non-lidar self driving to make it frustrating to Tesla owners but more specifically to cause financial impact on a self driving taxi fleet that wouldn't be possible with Lidar. Has Tesla accounted for malicious actors trying to sabotage it's vision choice and not just plain jane driving scenarios? I think at scale and once rolled out malicious actors are going to be one of the number one economic impacts of self driving taxi economics.
  - acomjean 1y ago
    I’d argue “Good enough” is different when you’re selling to someone a life critical system.
sidcool 1y ago
The Tesla hate here just seems a reflection of Elon hate. Let's separate the man from the company. Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in the world.
- pg5 1y ago
  Isn't the Carolla the best selling car in the world?
  - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
    Toyota Corolla is the best selling vehicle over the complete production cycle. Over 45 million units sold since 1966.
- Timon3 1y ago
  How much of that was due to promises of future performance that still haven't been fulfilled, and likely never will be?
- _DeadFred_ 1y ago
  Tesla doesn't really advertise and instead let Elon be it's face to the world. It doesn't make sense to separate the two when the company itself wants you to see them as one.
- Neywiny 1y ago
  I think I'm allowed to hate on a company that doesn't separate itself from Nazis.
- monetus 1y ago
  >Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in the world. In what way?
  - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
    In the sense that it was the best selling vehicle in 2024. 1.09 million units sold.
joshuanapoli 1y ago
Low price for used Teslas right now probably makes the “stripped down” Model Y an unlikely purchase.

54 points by TheAlchemist 1y ago

>Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years It's nowhere even close to solving it, and it's also no longer even the best at trying. Elon Musk is a pathological liar.

TheAlchemist 1y ago
Yep. Everybody with a brain knows that. The richest man on the planet is a tech con man. And yet, this post will get flagged and downvoted into oblivion. How did we get there ? As for those downvoting - nope, I'm not hating for him or anything like that. It's just that I like to tell my kids that good guys can win. And Elon is not that.
- BLKNSLVR 1y ago
  I was willing to forgive Elon some of his eccentricities. Until he repeated, more than once, obviously egregious untruths of Trump's. I will admit I was late to the realisation. Elon will say whatever he feels will progress his agenda, no matter how far disconnected from reality. He's jumped the shark and is doing far more harm than good. He needs to shrink into obscurity for his own, and the rest of the world's, good.
Rover222 1y ago
[dead]

jqpabc123 1y ago

Bottom line: Tesla has no actual product to justify the stock's sky high price. GM, Ford, Toyota etc. all have a price to earning ratio (P/E) of less than 10. Tesla has a P/E of 120. But, but, but --- Tesla is more than just an auto manufacturer. Again, there is little in the way of actual product to justify this viewpoint. 90 percent of their income is from autos. But, but, but --- Tesla is a "growth stock" with huge future potential. Again, the actual data shows otherwise. Sales in 2024 actually declined. The only reason Tesla has a P/E of 120 is because the so called "smart money" (aka institutional investors) remain bought into Musk's fantasy in a big way. Musk's best skill is con artistry and Wall Street is one of his biggest marks.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
Hell, even Tesla’s leadership knows the Robotaxi is—at best—a minor profit centre if it works [1]. [1] https://www.theinformation.com/articles/electric-inside-tesla-analysts-predicted-robotaxi-lose-money https://www.theinformation.com/articles/electric-inside-tesl...
_DeadFred_ 1y ago
90% of their income isn't DIRECT auto sales though. Q4 2024 30% of that 'auto income' is selling credits. In Q4 2024, Tesla recorded a $600 million gain from revaluing its Bitcoin holdings In Q4 2024 alone, Tesla earned $692 million from selling regulatory credits or carbon credits, accounting for nearly 30% of its quarterly net income of $2.33 billion. Tesla better hope Trump doesn't move away from 'environmental credits' rules. Probably won't happen, Trump seems pretty green focused. https://carboncredits.com/teslas-carbon-credit-revenue-soars-to-2-76-billion-amid-profit-drop/ https://carboncredits.com/teslas-carbon-credit-revenue-soars...
- _DeadFred_ 1y ago
  All that to say Tesla's current income is much more vulnerable than just to auto sales.
spiderfarmer 1y ago
Those institutional investors deserve to lose every penny if they truly believe AI and robotics are going to justify that valuation. Musk and the investors are just keeping up appearances to avoid losing their money. And he appears to be out of ideas for futuristic projects, judging by his recent, overly generic promise of “abundance”.
- jqpabc123 1y ago
  But, but, but --- AI and robotics. Again, Telsa has no real product to show that they can do AI and robotics any better than they do autos. It's pure wishful thinking at this point. But, but, but --- robotaxis. Ditto --- same as above. The really ominous "death cross" signal for Tesla --- their sales are declining (down 9% last quarter in the US) while EV sales overall continue to grow at a robust pace (up 11% last quarter in the US). In other words, the competition is eating Tesla's lunch. But for some less than obvious reason, Wall Street continues to favor fantasy over facts. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-slump-automakers-winning-gm-vw-byd-2025-4?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-slump-automakers...

belter 1y ago

The delay is more likely due to zero demand. Just reason 129th not to own a Tesla: "Tesla speeds up odometers to avoid warranty repairs, US lawsuit claims" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43723865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43723865

gruez 1y ago
I'm disappointment how unrigorous that lawsuit is. Their argument basically relies on the fact there's a patent filing that vaguely mentions this, and that the odometer sped up even though the plaintiff's driving habits haven't changed. Those are certainly reasons to be suspicious, but aren't exactly smoking guns. Plenty of things are patented but aren't implemented in reality, and we only have the plaintiff's word that there's no other change in driving behavior that could have accounted for the extra mileage. If they're spending all this time drafting a legal complaint, surely they can do a carefully controlled empirical test?
- belter 1y ago
  The lawsuit has low chances of succeeding but not on the merits. It exposes a regulatory gray area, both in the US and in the EU. Existing laws focus on tampering, not manufacturer accuracy. "Tesla odometer mileage vs actual miles discrepancy" - https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odometer_mileage_vs_actual_miles_discrepancy/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odome... "...Besides the disappointing result in the range test, the Tesla Model 3 had quite an unusual issue–its onboard trip meter was way off and essentially lied about the distance covered...." - https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norway-2025/ https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norwa... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43736091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43736091
  - gruez 1y ago
    >"Tesla odometer mileage vs actual miles discrepancy" - https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odome https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelY/comments/106m2dz/tesla_odome... This is just more of the same - vague anecdotes. Why dig up 2 year old reddit posts to try to prove your case, when you can definitively prove it with a day's worth of test drives? >"...Besides the disappointing result in the range test, the Tesla Model 3 had quite an unusual issue–its onboard trip meter was way off and essentially lied about the distance covered...." - https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norwa https://insideevs.com/news/747548/ev-winter-range-test-norwa... Is "trip meter" referring to the odometer, or the "estimated range" meter that's also displayed?

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Base model Teslas use LFP batteries from China.

alephnerd 1y ago
They're actively hiring teams to diversify away from the CATL dependency. They've starting hiring teams in India [0] and Malaysia [1] to work with alternative LFP suppliers. It's most likely Agratas in India (they manufacture the batteries used in Tata and JLR's EVs) and EVE Energy in Malaysia (they began an expansion outside Chin due to EU and US tariffs). [0] - https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/lsfouz https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/lsfouz [1] - https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/avoumb https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/avoumb
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  This works until Tariff Man suddenly alters the deal.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    India and the US are about to announce a Bilateral Trade Agreement [0], which was already in the works during Trump 1. Musk visited Modi yesterday [1] and Vance is traveling to India in the next 2 days [2], so the BTA and sourcing from India is most likely the primary topic of conversation. The Modi admin has also been cultivating Trump and Stephen Miller adjacent advisors [3][4][5] at the Heritage and Hudson Foundation for a couple years now too, by trying to use Walter Russell Mead the same way Graham Allison acted as a conduit between China and the US. And besides that, the tariffs remain oriented as a de facto blockade against China, and as long as they remain at a rate above 60-70%, Chinese sourced suppliers remain price uncompetitive. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-reference-first-phase-trade-deal-says-india-trade-2025-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-india-after-talk-with-modi-2025-04-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Vance-to-meet-Modi-in-India-as-U.S.-China-tariff-war-rages https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Van... [3] - https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of-the-us-thinktank-scholars/ https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of... [4] - https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 [5] - https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/ https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/

monetus 1y ago

There will be no 'Volkswagen' tesla, the model Y is going the way of the GT-R, and Tesla's other ideas are vaporware. Lidar is a superior approach. Refusing to use it, while claiming superiority, reminds me of how a child copes with losing at their favorite video game.

loandbehold 1y ago
It doesn't need to be superior, it just needs to be good enough. It's something that has been proven in many technology battles. FSD has made an amazing progress over the last two years. If they solve last 1% of cases they will be in good position to beat Waymo on price as they scale. With ride sharing price is everything. People just go for cheapest rides. That's why cybercab is two-seater, they are trying to minimize cost per mile. Smaller car means cheaper car and less energy per mile.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > doesn't need to be superior, it just needs to be good enough And not hated. I’m personally pressing for heightened street legality requirements for cameras-only self driving in California, New York, Canada and the EU.
- _DeadFred_ 1y ago
  I don't think people think through to the end enough. Lidar can't be tricked as easily. If Tesla were to attract a group of malicious actors that hated Tesla I wouldn't put it past those actors to figure out ways to confuse Tesla's non-lidar self driving to make it frustrating to Tesla owners but more specifically to cause financial impact on a self driving taxi fleet that wouldn't be possible with Lidar. Has Tesla accounted for malicious actors trying to sabotage it's vision choice and not just plain jane driving scenarios? I think at scale and once rolled out malicious actors are going to be one of the number one economic impacts of self driving taxi economics.
- acomjean 1y ago
  I’d argue “Good enough” is different when you’re selling to someone a life critical system.

sidcool 1y ago

The Tesla hate here just seems a reflection of Elon hate. Let's separate the man from the company. Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in the world.

pg5 1y ago
Isn't the Carolla the best selling car in the world?
- rad_gruchalski 1y ago
  Toyota Corolla is the best selling vehicle over the complete production cycle. Over 45 million units sold since 1966.
Timon3 1y ago
How much of that was due to promises of future performance that still haven't been fulfilled, and likely never will be?
_DeadFred_ 1y ago
Tesla doesn't really advertise and instead let Elon be it's face to the world. It doesn't make sense to separate the two when the company itself wants you to see them as one.
Neywiny 1y ago
I think I'm allowed to hate on a company that doesn't separate itself from Nazis.
monetus 1y ago
>Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in the world. In what way?
- rad_gruchalski 1y ago
  In the sense that it was the best selling vehicle in 2024. 1.09 million units sold.

joshuanapoli 1y ago

Low price for used Teslas right now probably makes the “stripped down” Model Y an unlikely purchase.