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This strikes me as curmudgeonly and unnecessarily contrarian. While it's true that investors, entrepreneurs, corporations, etc. have a vested interest in AI to
by dlivingston 2y ago
This strikes me as curmudgeonly and unnecessarily contrarian.
While it's true that investors, entrepreneurs, corporations, etc. have a vested interest in AI to the tune of trillions of dollars, the impulse to dismiss this as 90% hype (as the author does) is insane.
We're only three years into this, and we have:
- LLMs with grad student-level competency in everything
- Multimodality with complex understanding of photography and technical documents
- Image generators that can generate high-quality photos, in any style, with just a text description
- Song generators that make pretty decent music and video generators that aren't half bad
- Excellent developer tooling & autocomplete; very competent code generation
This is still early and the foundations are still being laid. Imagine where we'll be in 10 years, assuming even a linear growth rate in capabilities.
Think of what the internet is today, and its permanence in everything, and where it was just 30 years ago.
By all means, resist the hype - but don't go so far in the other direction that your head is in the sand.
- rileymat2 2y agoWhy would we assume linear growth in capabilities and not a logarithmic growth rate? It seems time and time again, it gets harder and harder to make progress. I think back to using Dragon Natural Dictation in 1998, there seemed to be exponential promise and a ton of excitement in my young mind. But the reality was more logarithmic improvements so it is finally pretty good 25 years later.
- shikon7 2y agoCombine an exponential growth in investments (that is inherent to our economy) with a logarithmic return in capabilities, and you get a linear increase in capabilities.
- YeGoblynQueenne 2y agoSo if you want a baby in one month, invest in 9 mothers?
- lgrapenthin 2y agoSorry, these claims are just not true. AI generations in these categories are impressive on release, but blatantly generic, recognizable, predictable and boring after I have seen about 100 or so. Also, if you want to put them to use to replace "real work" outside of the ordinary/pretrained, you hit limitations quickly. The scaling laws of the Internet were clear from the start.
- prmph 2y agoPretty much all your claims are false, in my experience: - LLMs do not have grad student-level competency in anything; they often make elementary mistakes in very basic reasoning. - Image generators produce spooky pictures with garbled text - Song generators produce nothing remarkable - LLM code generation is still sloppy and prone to many blindspots