4 ms·

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the b

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blockchain or garbage like that.

alganet 2y ago
* creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web Full stop. There, I fixed the list in a way that will stand the test of time.
- Zambyte 2y ago
  Just because you don't like LLMs doesn't make them not revolutionary with regards to how people use computers.
  - alganet 2y ago
    I like LLMs, I am rooting for them. They will be revolutionary and join the list once the technology stands the test of time. There you go. A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.
    - SecretDreams 2y ago
      > A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters. So you're saying we need more datacenters ~ Jensen Huang, probably
      - alganet 2y ago
        GPUs might actually make the list before LLMs. One could argue that it is the fourth item on that list, since it is a technology that is standing for a long time by now.
        SecretDreams 2y ago
        There are so many items I'd put on the list before LLMs tbh. It's not even worth the time having the conversation. My quality of life went up much more in the dial up to dsl transition. I wouldn't say DSL to fibre was as much of a jump, e.g. Anywho, that quality of life jump to DSL ultimately led to the enshitification of the internet I knew and loved and now I'm stuck talking about LLMs I wish didn't exist - I would trade the conveniences of today for the internet of the 2000s any day. I genuinely view us on a downwards QOL trajectory re: technology, even if it feels more novel and useful in the moment. Every new novelty in tech that makes life easier for us seems to actually further degraded the human experience of the internet. I don't know how to reconcile this trend with LLMs as being "great". It really feels like the more we do "good" to "progress" information technology breakthroughs, the worse the entire field feels. Much shallower, less personal, and dumber. Sorry for the rant.
        alganet 2y ago
        To define what a breakthrough is, is hard. A "gaming PC" defines how GPUs are important. General people know something there ticks different, specialists know, industries know. It matters. It matters for a long time now. "Broadband" was a hype, temporary. Once people understood that the speed is the thing, not any name, it stopped mattering. Now every couple of years there's a mini "new broadband tech" but it's all the same. Of course the tech is important. But revolutionary? I don't know. It boils down to being what is defined as generally "the internet".
        SecretDreams 2y ago
        I think the easiest way to define it would be to take it a way for a bit and see how the world changes. If we sent people back to dial up, the world would probably stop working. If we took away LLMs, GPUs, the base world will probably keep chugging along outside of financial markets. Just IMO.
        alganet 2y ago
        So, the test of time then? Sounds good to me! Hey, COBOL stood the test of time. In software, it was revolutionary.
    - Zambyte 2y ago
      They've been around for years now. Obviously not as long as the others, but years nonetheless. What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future? The only pattern I can see is it being potentially unsustainable, but I find it hard to believe that, considering I can run an LLM that is more capable that SOTA from 2 years ago on a single box in my living room.
      - alganet 2y ago
        > What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future? The same thing that makes me think that it could: I do not have a crystal ball. It's a simple test. Have patience. With your tone, even if you are right and it stands the test of time, you will look like a tool.
        bananalychee 2y ago
        It's those with your attitude, in a state of constant smug denial, who look like tools right now. We'll see how it goes in a few years, but I doubt that will change. The constant goalpost-shifting as LLMs keep getting better and better is becoming embarrassing, and even if they stopped getting better from now on, which is certainly not the case, their impact on communications is on the same order of magnitude as that of the WWW. The curmudgeons I work with are too stubborn to realize that LLMs have moved past GPT-3, and most of the haters on HN sound the same.
        alganet 2y ago
        I am ok looking like a tool right now. That is the goal of a hype trend. To make even healthy skeptics feel like they are missing a great thing. I am actually an early adopter though. I just don't like bragging around. Researchers know that most "goal posts moved" are actually great challenges. It would be sad if they saw it as pessimism. Think of it as a more creative way to engage in the hype. Skeptics are more valuable than blind believers. You want a blind believer testing your airbag or a skeptic that will move some goal posts to try and sniff out any bugs?
chubot 2y ago
If the personal computer counts, do mobile phones count? I would certainly think so, except all those high quality sensors have been hindered by app stores and subpar apps, imo :-( I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media
- deleted 2y ago
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- chubot 2y ago
  I almost think deep learning and mobile phones had an analogous and surprising applicability Deep learning failed to solve self-driving. In 2012 people said self driving would probably be ubiquitous by 2018, and it definitely would be by 2020 Instead we got chat bots in 2022 - that turned out to be the killer app, certainly the most widely adopted one Likewise, instead of mobile phones being used as an aid in the physical world, they became the world For example, the media they transmit seems to be how elections are won and lost now. It’s the device by which people form impressions of huge parts of the world
- Uehreka 2y ago
  Speaking as someone who just rebuked another commenter for daring to suggest Dijkstra’s algorithm should be on that list… yeah you may have a point. Mobile phones probably belong in the S-Tier with the Internet. In 2012-2014 I lived in Thailand right as the Smartphone Wave was cresting. I saw people who had never owned a computer leapfrog laptops and get online for the first time (on their own terms) with a cheap smartphone. And sure, many of them just went straight to instagram, but also a generation of working class Thai nerds got access to Wikipedia at their leisure, and that has no doubt led to uncountable good things. > I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media Ever since the iPhone X introduced infrared face tracking I’ve been using them in live theatre shows to drive digital characters. Here’s me and my friend Jordan playing 3 “AI Gods” during the Baltimore Rock Opera Society’s 2019 show Space Kumite using an iPhone X for facial motion capture: https://youtu.be/wSYWC1GCZA8?si=RtWDODFwHxEnaB9u https://youtu.be/wSYWC1GCZA8?si=RtWDODFwHxEnaB9u
ratmeadow 2y ago
Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?
- wewewedxfgdf 2y ago
  Its a matter of opinion who cares what I think - if your list includes those things as fundamental changes that redefined society and technology then that's valid. All I am saying is that LLMs are amongst the most revolutionary changes that break new ground and completely change the world - in my personal opinion.
  - ratmeadow 2y ago
    Yeah I guess my point was there's a lot of opinion involved, especially at the moment. Which can play into the hype cycle. Full disclaimer I am an LLM semi-doubter so of course my opinion skews in that direction. We should see what the future evidence shows for the value of LLMs. Part of what the article touched on is historically the evidence often doesn't back up the hype, hence their disappointment.
  - TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
    LLMs could be one of the most revolutionary changes. The problem is that LLMs as a phenomenon are mostly wishful thinking and an acceptance of downgraded quality and reliability. Sometimes they do useful things. But the gap between "sometimes" and "reliably" is not trivial. It's honestly rather culty. I can see the hope that mistakes in today's vibe coding will be fixed by future vibe coding, which will be better in every way. But it's not a given that's going to happen. Not on the evidence so far.
- Uehreka 2y ago
  5 years after Dijkstra’s algorithm was invented, could non-tech people look back and see a huge impact on their everyday lives? No. Of the things in your list, WiFi is the closest to rising to this level, but even WiFi can’t claim to be as big of a deal as the Internet (unless you’re being extremely cute). Your list is all A- and B-Tier stuff. Definitely important, but not on the level of like, the personal computer. LLMs are likely on the S-Tier with the other things GP mentioned. Within a month of its release ChatGPT had 100 million users. Everyone in my life can tell me a way they’ve been affected by LLMs. We can argue about whether LLMs are/will be good for humanity. We cannot argue about whether they’re a big deal, they are undeniable.
pyfon 2y ago
Missing from the list is the daily march of improved silicon performance through 50+ years.
kylecazar 2y ago
Agreed, but it's also so very relative. If nobody was paying attention to what the foundational companies have been doing for the past few years, I'm pretty sure I'd be a wild advocate singing their praises on these and other forums. But since everyone is extremely into it, I just kind of watch and try to measure my expectations.
zusammen 2y ago
[dead]
manoDev 2y ago
> LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. See, that’s what the article is about. Saying LLM is on the same level of steam power, the computer, the internet, airplanes, etc. when the technology hasn’t even been around enough to have real impact, and all I read is extrapolation about how everything will be based on it “in the future” — that’s the definition of hype.
- kadushka 2y ago
  LLMs do about half of my work for me. Today I spent most of my time interacting with o3 and 2.5-pro and I have accomplished what would take me 3 days to accomplish in the past. That’s real impact.
  - manoDev 2y ago
    LLMs can’t do anything for my work besides being an alternative to Google, and even then I need to double check on another source. You get a lot of positive reinforcement from positive opinions online, but the people who don’t depend on this to work won’t be vocal about it.
    - cheevly 2y ago
      If you are involved in knowledge work, please pay me to automate your job with LLMs for you. I’m able to take on any breadth of work thrown my way, so looking forward to your outreach.
jcranmer 2y ago
LLMs are at this point almost 8 years old (dating from the Attention is All You Need paper). If it's truly a revolutionary technology, you should be able to point me to a company leveraging LLMs to make absolute bank, leaving all of its non-LLM-based competitors in the dust. But instead, what I see in this thread in defense of the revolutionary ideals of LLMs, is how good future LLMs are going to be. That's not a sign of a revolutionary technology, that's a sign of hype. If you want to convince me otherwise, point to how good they are right now.
- famouswaffles 2y ago
  Large Language Models are not 8 years old. GPT-3 or arguably GPT-2 is the first LLM. Moreover, I can think of 0 revolutionary technologies that did what you've said in such timelines. The Internet, Smartphones, The Steam Engine - the idea that revolutionary technology is created and everything changes in an instant is bizarre fiction. And how well would you know really? Not everyone using LLMs internally is screaming about it from the rooftops.
  - jcranmer 2y ago
    Steam locomotives: the first practical steam locomotive was Stephenson's Rocket in 1829, although maybe you want count from the earlier locomotive developed for the Stockington and Darlington in 1825. In either case, by 1830, there was already a successful company producing steam locomotives, and everyone pursing the building of railroads were using or imminently planning to convert to using steam locomotives for tractive power. Naval technology can be even more stark. HMS Dreadnought was a revolution in terms of battleship design; all the major naval countries were building dreadnoughts before she was completed (actually, a few started before she was even laid down!). That's a feature you see a lot of revolutionary technologies experience: even the earliest incarnations have enough "wow" factor to push people to using them and improving from the get-go.
    - famouswaffles 2y ago
      >That's a feature you see a lot of revolutionary technologies experience: even the earliest incarnations have enough "wow" factor to push people to using them and improving from the get-go. ChatGPT alone had over 400 Million weekly active users in February (and seem to have hit 500M) and was the 6th most visited site in the world last month. This is software that was introduced to the public in Nov of 2022. To put it frankly, it's the fastest growing software service ever. Google, Youtube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter were the only sites with more visits. It's close enough to Twitter that it may well overtake it this month. It's not up for debate. LLMs absolutely have that "wow" factor. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/20/openai-tops-400-million-users-despite-deepseeks-emergence.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/20/ope... https://x.com/Similarweb/status/1909544985629721070 https://x.com/Similarweb/status/1909544985629721070 https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/viral-trend-drives-chatgpt-to-500-million-users/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/viral-trend-drives-c...

alganet 2y ago

* creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web Full stop. There, I fixed the list in a way that will stand the test of time.

Zambyte 2y ago
Just because you don't like LLMs doesn't make them not revolutionary with regards to how people use computers.
- alganet 2y ago
  I like LLMs, I am rooting for them. They will be revolutionary and join the list once the technology stands the test of time. There you go. A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.
  - SecretDreams 2y ago
    > A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters. So you're saying we need more datacenters ~ Jensen Huang, probably
    - alganet 2y ago
      GPUs might actually make the list before LLMs. One could argue that it is the fourth item on that list, since it is a technology that is standing for a long time by now.
      - SecretDreams 2y ago
        There are so many items I'd put on the list before LLMs tbh. It's not even worth the time having the conversation. My quality of life went up much more in the dial up to dsl transition. I wouldn't say DSL to fibre was as much of a jump, e.g. Anywho, that quality of life jump to DSL ultimately led to the enshitification of the internet I knew and loved and now I'm stuck talking about LLMs I wish didn't exist - I would trade the conveniences of today for the internet of the 2000s any day. I genuinely view us on a downwards QOL trajectory re: technology, even if it feels more novel and useful in the moment. Every new novelty in tech that makes life easier for us seems to actually further degraded the human experience of the internet. I don't know how to reconcile this trend with LLMs as being "great". It really feels like the more we do "good" to "progress" information technology breakthroughs, the worse the entire field feels. Much shallower, less personal, and dumber. Sorry for the rant.
        alganet 2y ago
        To define what a breakthrough is, is hard. A "gaming PC" defines how GPUs are important. General people know something there ticks different, specialists know, industries know. It matters. It matters for a long time now. "Broadband" was a hype, temporary. Once people understood that the speed is the thing, not any name, it stopped mattering. Now every couple of years there's a mini "new broadband tech" but it's all the same. Of course the tech is important. But revolutionary? I don't know. It boils down to being what is defined as generally "the internet".
        SecretDreams 2y ago
        I think the easiest way to define it would be to take it a way for a bit and see how the world changes. If we sent people back to dial up, the world would probably stop working. If we took away LLMs, GPUs, the base world will probably keep chugging along outside of financial markets. Just IMO.
        alganet 2y ago
        So, the test of time then? Sounds good to me! Hey, COBOL stood the test of time. In software, it was revolutionary.
  - Zambyte 2y ago
    They've been around for years now. Obviously not as long as the others, but years nonetheless. What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future? The only pattern I can see is it being potentially unsustainable, but I find it hard to believe that, considering I can run an LLM that is more capable that SOTA from 2 years ago on a single box in my living room.
    - alganet 2y ago
      > What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future? The same thing that makes me think that it could: I do not have a crystal ball. It's a simple test. Have patience. With your tone, even if you are right and it stands the test of time, you will look like a tool.
      - bananalychee 2y ago
        It's those with your attitude, in a state of constant smug denial, who look like tools right now. We'll see how it goes in a few years, but I doubt that will change. The constant goalpost-shifting as LLMs keep getting better and better is becoming embarrassing, and even if they stopped getting better from now on, which is certainly not the case, their impact on communications is on the same order of magnitude as that of the WWW. The curmudgeons I work with are too stubborn to realize that LLMs have moved past GPT-3, and most of the haters on HN sound the same.
        alganet 2y ago
        I am ok looking like a tool right now. That is the goal of a hype trend. To make even healthy skeptics feel like they are missing a great thing. I am actually an early adopter though. I just don't like bragging around. Researchers know that most "goal posts moved" are actually great challenges. It would be sad if they saw it as pessimism. Think of it as a more creative way to engage in the hype. Skeptics are more valuable than blind believers. You want a blind believer testing your airbag or a skeptic that will move some goal posts to try and sniff out any bugs?

chubot 2y ago

If the personal computer counts, do mobile phones count? I would certainly think so, except all those high quality sensors have been hindered by app stores and subpar apps, imo :-( I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
chubot 2y ago
I almost think deep learning and mobile phones had an analogous and surprising applicability Deep learning failed to solve self-driving. In 2012 people said self driving would probably be ubiquitous by 2018, and it definitely would be by 2020 Instead we got chat bots in 2022 - that turned out to be the killer app, certainly the most widely adopted one Likewise, instead of mobile phones being used as an aid in the physical world, they became the world For example, the media they transmit seems to be how elections are won and lost now. It’s the device by which people form impressions of huge parts of the world
Uehreka 2y ago
Speaking as someone who just rebuked another commenter for daring to suggest Dijkstra’s algorithm should be on that list… yeah you may have a point. Mobile phones probably belong in the S-Tier with the Internet. In 2012-2014 I lived in Thailand right as the Smartphone Wave was cresting. I saw people who had never owned a computer leapfrog laptops and get online for the first time (on their own terms) with a cheap smartphone. And sure, many of them just went straight to instagram, but also a generation of working class Thai nerds got access to Wikipedia at their leisure, and that has no doubt led to uncountable good things. > I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media Ever since the iPhone X introduced infrared face tracking I’ve been using them in live theatre shows to drive digital characters. Here’s me and my friend Jordan playing 3 “AI Gods” during the Baltimore Rock Opera Society’s 2019 show Space Kumite using an iPhone X for facial motion capture: https://youtu.be/wSYWC1GCZA8?si=RtWDODFwHxEnaB9u https://youtu.be/wSYWC1GCZA8?si=RtWDODFwHxEnaB9u

ratmeadow 2y ago

Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?

wewewedxfgdf 2y ago
Its a matter of opinion who cares what I think - if your list includes those things as fundamental changes that redefined society and technology then that's valid. All I am saying is that LLMs are amongst the most revolutionary changes that break new ground and completely change the world - in my personal opinion.
- ratmeadow 2y ago
  Yeah I guess my point was there's a lot of opinion involved, especially at the moment. Which can play into the hype cycle. Full disclaimer I am an LLM semi-doubter so of course my opinion skews in that direction. We should see what the future evidence shows for the value of LLMs. Part of what the article touched on is historically the evidence often doesn't back up the hype, hence their disappointment.
- TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
  LLMs could be one of the most revolutionary changes. The problem is that LLMs as a phenomenon are mostly wishful thinking and an acceptance of downgraded quality and reliability. Sometimes they do useful things. But the gap between "sometimes" and "reliably" is not trivial. It's honestly rather culty. I can see the hope that mistakes in today's vibe coding will be fixed by future vibe coding, which will be better in every way. But it's not a given that's going to happen. Not on the evidence so far.
Uehreka 2y ago
5 years after Dijkstra’s algorithm was invented, could non-tech people look back and see a huge impact on their everyday lives? No. Of the things in your list, WiFi is the closest to rising to this level, but even WiFi can’t claim to be as big of a deal as the Internet (unless you’re being extremely cute). Your list is all A- and B-Tier stuff. Definitely important, but not on the level of like, the personal computer. LLMs are likely on the S-Tier with the other things GP mentioned. Within a month of its release ChatGPT had 100 million users. Everyone in my life can tell me a way they’ve been affected by LLMs. We can argue about whether LLMs are/will be good for humanity. We cannot argue about whether they’re a big deal, they are undeniable.

pyfon 2y ago

Missing from the list is the daily march of improved silicon performance through 50+ years.

kylecazar 2y ago

Agreed, but it's also so very relative. If nobody was paying attention to what the foundational companies have been doing for the past few years, I'm pretty sure I'd be a wild advocate singing their praises on these and other forums. But since everyone is extremely into it, I just kind of watch and try to measure my expectations.

zusammen 2y ago

[dead]

manoDev 2y ago

> LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. See, that’s what the article is about. Saying LLM is on the same level of steam power, the computer, the internet, airplanes, etc. when the technology hasn’t even been around enough to have real impact, and all I read is extrapolation about how everything will be based on it “in the future” — that’s the definition of hype.

kadushka 2y ago
LLMs do about half of my work for me. Today I spent most of my time interacting with o3 and 2.5-pro and I have accomplished what would take me 3 days to accomplish in the past. That’s real impact.
- manoDev 2y ago
  LLMs can’t do anything for my work besides being an alternative to Google, and even then I need to double check on another source. You get a lot of positive reinforcement from positive opinions online, but the people who don’t depend on this to work won’t be vocal about it.
  - cheevly 2y ago
    If you are involved in knowledge work, please pay me to automate your job with LLMs for you. I’m able to take on any breadth of work thrown my way, so looking forward to your outreach.

jcranmer 2y ago

LLMs are at this point almost 8 years old (dating from the Attention is All You Need paper). If it's truly a revolutionary technology, you should be able to point me to a company leveraging LLMs to make absolute bank, leaving all of its non-LLM-based competitors in the dust. But instead, what I see in this thread in defense of the revolutionary ideals of LLMs, is how good future LLMs are going to be. That's not a sign of a revolutionary technology, that's a sign of hype. If you want to convince me otherwise, point to how good they are right now.

famouswaffles 2y ago
Large Language Models are not 8 years old. GPT-3 or arguably GPT-2 is the first LLM. Moreover, I can think of 0 revolutionary technologies that did what you've said in such timelines. The Internet, Smartphones, The Steam Engine - the idea that revolutionary technology is created and everything changes in an instant is bizarre fiction. And how well would you know really? Not everyone using LLMs internally is screaming about it from the rooftops.
- jcranmer 2y ago
  Steam locomotives: the first practical steam locomotive was Stephenson's Rocket in 1829, although maybe you want count from the earlier locomotive developed for the Stockington and Darlington in 1825. In either case, by 1830, there was already a successful company producing steam locomotives, and everyone pursing the building of railroads were using or imminently planning to convert to using steam locomotives for tractive power. Naval technology can be even more stark. HMS Dreadnought was a revolution in terms of battleship design; all the major naval countries were building dreadnoughts before she was completed (actually, a few started before she was even laid down!). That's a feature you see a lot of revolutionary technologies experience: even the earliest incarnations have enough "wow" factor to push people to using them and improving from the get-go.
  - famouswaffles 2y ago
    >That's a feature you see a lot of revolutionary technologies experience: even the earliest incarnations have enough "wow" factor to push people to using them and improving from the get-go. ChatGPT alone had over 400 Million weekly active users in February (and seem to have hit 500M) and was the 6th most visited site in the world last month. This is software that was introduced to the public in Nov of 2022. To put it frankly, it's the fastest growing software service ever. Google, Youtube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter were the only sites with more visits. It's close enough to Twitter that it may well overtake it this month. It's not up for debate. LLMs absolutely have that "wow" factor. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/20/openai-tops-400-million-users-despite-deepseeks-emergence.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/20/ope... https://x.com/Similarweb/status/1909544985629721070 https://x.com/Similarweb/status/1909544985629721070 https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/viral-trend-drives-chatgpt-to-500-million-users/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/viral-trend-drives-c...