3 ms·

To bring it down to a real and concrete case, we can do so much better than each family ferrying their children to school/activites, then driving everywhere in

To bring it down to a real and concrete case, we can do so much better than each family ferrying their children to school/activites, then driving everywhere in single-occupant cars. That's a world where children and senior citizens have greatly reduced independence and community. How would it look like if there were reduced day-to-day car dependency? Maybe something like this: a "walking schoolbus" where senior citizens and schoolchildren connect with one another as they get exercise on the way to school. Who wouldn't want that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeYBL5u97c8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeYBL5u97c8

toomuchtodo 2y ago
I really like the Barcelona Superblocks model [1] for existing urban environments, but subsidizing families to relocate closer to schools is also an option imho. You have to find the intersection of what is politically palatable and the resources available; the next 100 years is going to see structural demographic decline, declining working cohort participation, less growth and productivity, continuing rapid fertility rate decline, declining household sizes, etc so creativity and flexibility will be required (imho). I am also a fan of what Culdesac [2] is doing, and is a pattern to be scaled. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” got us cars, and I think the new question is "How do we deliver locality and mobility for quality lives without cars, when possible?" Cars are not going away, but we should not build for them specifically as if they were the default option, as this cost burdens the future with potentially unnecessary and expensive personal mobility and infrastructure obligations. Even today, they are unaffordable for a substantial population of people, based on the evidence in my comment above. [1] https://hn.algolia.com/?q=barcelona+superblocks https://hn.algolia.com/?q=barcelona+superblocks [2] https://culdesac.com/ https://culdesac.com/
- crooked-v 2y ago
  > subsidizing families to relocate closer to schools Without changing the US' urban model to actually allow more homes, all that will do is keep the status quo and make everything more expensive.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    The US has a housing shortage [1] (~3M-8M units) that will persist long into the future due to a shortage of tradespeople [2], artificial land scarcity due to new builders constraining supply [3], etc. Upzoning and YIMBY are important components in increasing housing supply and affordability, but relocating folks closer to critical social systems (schools for families with school age children, hospitals and care facilities for seniors) versus expecting everyone to have a car or expecting school bus service when that transportation system is already reaching failure [4] [5] is also of some measurable value (imho). Remember, fertility rate is rapidly declining in almost every state [6] [7], so there should be fewer children in each subsequent educational cohort and families requiring locality near schools should trend downward over time (demographics are tricky and can change, so lots of assumptions relying on current trends as of this comment). A potential solution is for cities and communities to issue bonds, purchase housing near schools when the economics are favorable (ie try to avoid overpaying), and hold it as public affordable housing for families (perhaps in concert with upzoning; buy adjacent parcels, demo, and rebuild as more dense multi family). Political will is the wildcard. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42277358 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42277358 (citations) [2] https://www.haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/Howard_Wang_Zhang_Housing-Supply-and-Construction-Labor-Dayin-Zhang.pdf https://www.haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/Howard_Wang... (pages 22-23, 27 specifically) [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VryFaFsKhVE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VryFaFsKhVE [4] https://www.epi.org/blog/the-school-bus-driver-shortage-remains-severe-and-bus-driver-pay-is-getting-worse/ https://www.epi.org/blog/the-school-bus-driver-shortage-rema... [5] https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/states-tackle-challenges-of-getting-students-to-and-from-school https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/states-... [6] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-have-us-fertility-and-birth-rates-changed-over-time/ https://usafacts.org/articles/how-have-us-fertility-and-birt... [7] https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-look-like-by-2100/ https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-...
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      Additional citations: Construction Capacity: America's Diminishing Housing Pipeline - https://www.governance.fyi/p/construction-capacity-americas-diminishing https://www.governance.fyi/p/construction-capacity-americas-... Housing Supply and Housing Affordability - https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 ("The decline in housing affordability over recent decades has promoted an enhanced interest in housing supply. This chapter presents descriptive evidence about the evolution of us housing prices, quantities, and regulations since 1980, indicating that supply constraints appear to be increasingly binding. We then provide an overview of the various approaches used to model construction and land development for homogeneous and heterogeneous housing in static and dynamic contexts to understand housing supply. Our treatment incorporates empirical implementation and policy implications throughout. Finally, we provide an overview of quantitative evidence on the consequences of relaxing various types of supply constraints.")
ryandrake 2y ago
I don’t think many US parents would accept their child independently walking or bicycling to school, even over short distances. The Stranger Danger mainstream media has them absolutely terrified that their kid is going to be kidnapped as soon as they leave their front doors.
- mitthrowaway2 2y ago
  The real danger is them getting hit by a car driven by another parent dropping off their kid at school. It's a difficult equilibrium to break out of.
xp84 2y ago
Just to consider this on a small scale where, it would actually need to be implemented, one neighborhood at a time, I live in a medium-sized town where the school district has chosen to reject free land that developers attempted to donate to the district for the construction of schools, in favor of just assigning the families who move into these new-build homes to the schools in the other part of town where schools have ample capacity due to the large 4+ bedroom single-family homes mostly being owned and occupied by empty-nest Boomers. We live somewhere in between the "new builds" part of town and the area that has a bunch of schools, so the walk from our neighborhood to our assigned (and closest) middle school is only 2.5 miles, a 55 minute walk with 155 ft elevation change. This walk takes you across a road with a 60MPH speed limit, basically an expressway. The elementary school is a bit closer, only a 40 minutes, 2 mile walk, but same expressway. Oh, and they don't even offer a school bus of any kind. I suppose the gen-x parents killed that idea off 25 years ago because they were so worried their kids would be out of direct supervision even walking to a bus stop, so each child is chaufferred door to door, rain or shine, until 16 when they receive their own cars. I agree with you that all this is absurd. Kids are capable of walking to school and shouldn't have to leave a medium-sized neighborhood to do so. But significant demolition of neighborhoods and construction of schools, local grocery markets, etc. is the only prescription for our ills that would provide anything resembling an alternative to cars for the residents of the tract homes that make up a significant part of our car-dependent suburbs. This is why I think whoever upthread is arguing that people aren't exactly being reasonable expecting the America we inherited from the 20th century to stop stalling and transform itself into 1,000 Amsterdams. Even though the places that share that awesome non-car infra are highly sought-after.
- cyberax 2y ago
  > I agree with you that all this is absurd. It's not. It's the right design idea. But it's just missing one factor that will make it far superior to ANY other urban model: self-driving vehicles. Imagine children being able to just get a self-driving taxi and ride to school by themselves. Or to other locations. All while having plenty of space at home, a yard to play, etc.
  - xp84 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

I really like the Barcelona Superblocks model [1] for existing urban environments, but subsidizing families to relocate closer to schools is also an option imho. You have to find the intersection of what is politically palatable and the resources available; the next 100 years is going to see structural demographic decline, declining working cohort participation, less growth and productivity, continuing rapid fertility rate decline, declining household sizes, etc so creativity and flexibility will be required (imho). I am also a fan of what Culdesac [2] is doing, and is a pattern to be scaled. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” got us cars, and I think the new question is "How do we deliver locality and mobility for quality lives without cars, when possible?" Cars are not going away, but we should not build for them specifically as if they were the default option, as this cost burdens the future with potentially unnecessary and expensive personal mobility and infrastructure obligations. Even today, they are unaffordable for a substantial population of people, based on the evidence in my comment above. [1] https://hn.algolia.com/?q=barcelona+superblocks https://hn.algolia.com/?q=barcelona+superblocks [2] https://culdesac.com/ https://culdesac.com/

crooked-v 2y ago
> subsidizing families to relocate closer to schools Without changing the US' urban model to actually allow more homes, all that will do is keep the status quo and make everything more expensive.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  The US has a housing shortage [1] (~3M-8M units) that will persist long into the future due to a shortage of tradespeople [2], artificial land scarcity due to new builders constraining supply [3], etc. Upzoning and YIMBY are important components in increasing housing supply and affordability, but relocating folks closer to critical social systems (schools for families with school age children, hospitals and care facilities for seniors) versus expecting everyone to have a car or expecting school bus service when that transportation system is already reaching failure [4] [5] is also of some measurable value (imho). Remember, fertility rate is rapidly declining in almost every state [6] [7], so there should be fewer children in each subsequent educational cohort and families requiring locality near schools should trend downward over time (demographics are tricky and can change, so lots of assumptions relying on current trends as of this comment). A potential solution is for cities and communities to issue bonds, purchase housing near schools when the economics are favorable (ie try to avoid overpaying), and hold it as public affordable housing for families (perhaps in concert with upzoning; buy adjacent parcels, demo, and rebuild as more dense multi family). Political will is the wildcard. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42277358 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42277358 (citations) [2] https://www.haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/Howard_Wang_Zhang_Housing-Supply-and-Construction-Labor-Dayin-Zhang.pdf https://www.haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/Howard_Wang... (pages 22-23, 27 specifically) [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VryFaFsKhVE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VryFaFsKhVE [4] https://www.epi.org/blog/the-school-bus-driver-shortage-remains-severe-and-bus-driver-pay-is-getting-worse/ https://www.epi.org/blog/the-school-bus-driver-shortage-rema... [5] https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/states-tackle-challenges-of-getting-students-to-and-from-school https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/states-... [6] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-have-us-fertility-and-birth-rates-changed-over-time/ https://usafacts.org/articles/how-have-us-fertility-and-birt... [7] https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-look-like-by-2100/ https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-...
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Additional citations: Construction Capacity: America's Diminishing Housing Pipeline - https://www.governance.fyi/p/construction-capacity-americas-diminishing https://www.governance.fyi/p/construction-capacity-americas-... Housing Supply and Housing Affordability - https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 ("The decline in housing affordability over recent decades has promoted an enhanced interest in housing supply. This chapter presents descriptive evidence about the evolution of us housing prices, quantities, and regulations since 1980, indicating that supply constraints appear to be increasingly binding. We then provide an overview of the various approaches used to model construction and land development for homogeneous and heterogeneous housing in static and dynamic contexts to understand housing supply. Our treatment incorporates empirical implementation and policy implications throughout. Finally, we provide an overview of quantitative evidence on the consequences of relaxing various types of supply constraints.")

ryandrake 2y ago

I don’t think many US parents would accept their child independently walking or bicycling to school, even over short distances. The Stranger Danger mainstream media has them absolutely terrified that their kid is going to be kidnapped as soon as they leave their front doors.

mitthrowaway2 2y ago
The real danger is them getting hit by a car driven by another parent dropping off their kid at school. It's a difficult equilibrium to break out of.

xp84 2y ago

Just to consider this on a small scale where, it would actually need to be implemented, one neighborhood at a time, I live in a medium-sized town where the school district has chosen to reject free land that developers attempted to donate to the district for the construction of schools, in favor of just assigning the families who move into these new-build homes to the schools in the other part of town where schools have ample capacity due to the large 4+ bedroom single-family homes mostly being owned and occupied by empty-nest Boomers. We live somewhere in between the "new builds" part of town and the area that has a bunch of schools, so the walk from our neighborhood to our assigned (and closest) middle school is only 2.5 miles, a 55 minute walk with 155 ft elevation change. This walk takes you across a road with a 60MPH speed limit, basically an expressway. The elementary school is a bit closer, only a 40 minutes, 2 mile walk, but same expressway. Oh, and they don't even offer a school bus of any kind. I suppose the gen-x parents killed that idea off 25 years ago because they were so worried their kids would be out of direct supervision even walking to a bus stop, so each child is chaufferred door to door, rain or shine, until 16 when they receive their own cars. I agree with you that all this is absurd. Kids are capable of walking to school and shouldn't have to leave a medium-sized neighborhood to do so. But significant demolition of neighborhoods and construction of schools, local grocery markets, etc. is the only prescription for our ills that would provide anything resembling an alternative to cars for the residents of the tract homes that make up a significant part of our car-dependent suburbs. This is why I think whoever upthread is arguing that people aren't exactly being reasonable expecting the America we inherited from the 20th century to stop stalling and transform itself into 1,000 Amsterdams. Even though the places that share that awesome non-car infra are highly sought-after.

cyberax 2y ago
> I agree with you that all this is absurd. It's not. It's the right design idea. But it's just missing one factor that will make it far superior to ANY other urban model: self-driving vehicles. Imagine children being able to just get a self-driving taxi and ride to school by themselves. Or to other locations. All while having plenty of space at home, a yard to play, etc.
- xp84 2y ago