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When Bill Gates' wife began pushing him to work on issues of third-world health, this was more or less his argument against it. She dug up the statistics to sh
by dmlorenzetti 14y ago
When Bill Gates' wife began pushing him to work on issues of third-world health, this was more or less his argument against it. She dug up the statistics to show that this idea, while intuitive, is not supported by fact. As health improves-- and in particular as child mortality goes down-- birth rates fall accordingly.
As we all know, Gates got on board, and now funds a lot of health research and on-the-ground initiatives.
- vecinu 14y agoI'm weary of these statistics as one can manipulate data to suit one's purpose. Source please?
- dmlorenzetti 14y agoI would have liked to provide the source, but it was a New Yorker article that I read in the print edition. Here's an "abstract" of the article, which hints at my synopsis: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/10/24/051024fa_fact_specter http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/10/24/051024fa_fact_sp...
- sp332 14y agoI think you mean wary? Here you can see that as infant mortality increases, population growth is nearly steady or even increases slightly. http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=2008$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=0AkBd6lyS3EmpdFY5Z0QzTzRRbzJ1VXdqdGVyNE0tcFE;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0NpF2PTov2Cw;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=1.95;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0TAlJeCEzcGQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=-10.9551;dataMax=20$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=1.2;dataMax=420$map_s;sma=49;smi=1.95$cd;bd=0$inds= http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly... (Note the log scale on the vertical axis.) You can "scrub" backward and forward in time with the slider at the bottom.
- dave_sullivan 14y agohttp://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_the_good_news_of_the_decade.html http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_the_good_news_of_the_d... That video does a very good job of explaining this. As child mortality decreases, family size goes down. I'm sure the data is manipulated to suit someone's purposes, but all seems reasonable to me...
- noselasd 14y agoI'd recommend watching all the TED talks by Hans Rosling, they are pretty awesome and eye opening, in particular these: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_shows_the_best... http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_on_poverty.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_reveals_new_in... http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_at_state.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_at_state.html
- ColinDabritz 14y agoPlay with the raw data as you like at Gapminder.org. For example, here is a graph I created of infant mortality vs children per woman: http://www.bit.ly/QTPNBk http://www.bit.ly/QTPNBk (starts at 1900, press play to see changes to current) Note that each axis has a small 'various sources' button under it that will cite specific sources. You may also enjoy Hans Rosling's TED Talk on global population growth, as he gets into the details pretty thoroughly. https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_...
- Spooky23 14y agoDo some Googling. My grandparents were all born in Ireland from 1905-1920. My father's father was one of 6 children, my mother's mother 1 of 13. All families lost at least two children each that I'm aware of -- stillbirths were often kept secret. The point is, when you have incredibly poor country, excessive influence of religion, poor health and a high child mortality rate, you have more children, both planned and unplanned.
- genwin 14y agoI suspect that excessive influence of religion led to all those other problems.
- tomjakubowski 14y agoExcessive influence of religion leads to poverty, poor health, and a high child mortality rate? Do you have any sources to back this besides a general feeling that religion is "bad"?
- d0mine 14y agoTED Talk Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset: Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. All the religions in the world are fully [able] to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. </quote> http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_at_state.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_at_state.html
- mynameishere 14y agoHealth generally improves with the underlying economy, not because of charity. The underlying economy is going to correlate with damn near other statistic one way or another. More credibly, the "War on Poverty" was an abject failure in every way.
- yequalsx 14y agoCan you source your information on the abject failure of the "War on Poverty"in every way? I'm sure you were speaking in hyperbole so I'm not expecting that literally this be shown to be a failure in every way. The term "War on Poverty" in the U.S. specifically refers to initiatives started by the Johnson administration. Do you refer this or some other war on poverty?
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- nandemo 14y agoThe argument is not that "charity improves healthcare" (though in some specific cases it does, locally), it's that since birth rates tend to fall, the claim that "saving a child will only increase the number of starving people in the future" doesn't hold.
- powertower 14y agoI'm afraid that the difference it makes when we decreased infant mortality in a region, is the difference between having 8 children and having 5 children. The problem is one of culture, education, and relative-wealth (and also whatever traits are infuenced by DNA). Everything else stems from that. Sub-Sahara population has seen a decrease in infant mortality and at the same time has gone from 250M to 850M people in 30 years. It's blowing up and I'm also afraid that the cause of all that is foreign intervention and artificial aid. In 2050 there will be 2 Billion people there. Who's going to help feed the hungry then?
- orbitingpluto 14y ago
- sliverstorm 14y agoAs I understand it, Gates funds health related research, e.g. clean drinking water or malaria. Your parent was discussing the simple provision of free food.
- ttrt 14y agoyeah, no bags of rice, AFAIK
- genwin 14y agoBut what if child mortality is up mainly because of high birth rates? When their religion/culture calls for having as many kids as possible, it causes problems that lead to high child mortality. It's very difficult to change religion/culture.
- jbrechtel 14y agoThis talk by Hans Rosling makes a pretty reasonable case for decoupling the notion of religion and birth rates. http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_religions_and_...
- genwin 14y agoDoes he explain away the correlation in Utah? It seemed a safe bet that Utah has the US's highest birth rate, given Mormonism there. A search confirmed it. (Sorry I'm lazy on video sources.)
- jbrechtel 14y agoNo he doesn't mention it from what I recall. The data discussed is broader (and more longitudinal) than that trend. Personally I'd guess the birth rate there is a direct result of the church's push for more children, but I don't really know.
- JEVLON 14y agoMelinda Gates seems to support the idea of birth control in Africa. http://www.ted.com/talks/melinda_gates_let_s_put_birth_control_back_on_the_agenda.html http://www.ted.com/talks/melinda_gates_let_s_put_birth_contr... Edits: She doesn't want it for population control. By empowering women to decide whether or not they want to have children, it will still significantly reduce the birth rate.