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> In a comment elsewhere in the discussion: accuracy of targeting is worse than random sampling https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43719816 https://news.ycomb

> In a comment elsewhere in the discussion: accuracy of targeting is worse than random sampling https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43719816 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43719816 I could provide a long answer but the gist of it is that the study is flawed. Among the reasons, they don't differentiate desktop and mobile traffic which is a massive measurement problem. They also use Nielsen DAR which is in itself a heuristic method of determining what age and gender a user is and thus is not a great pick as an oracle. The study also does not mention click and bounce rates which are good proxies for targeting success. Beyond the performance, the marketing and sales aspect of targeted advertising is also a strong selling point, no matter the performance. > Ads have existed for as long as commerce existed. Google became a trillion dollar ad behemoth before it started collected everyone's data by simply offering contextual ads. No, it didn't. > Literally nothing in the ads business requires you to collect and sell so much of user data that it would even make Stasi pause and re-think. It does because contextual advertisement does not provide enough volumes and lower performance (lower click rate, higher bounce rates, lower conversion rates). Example: If 1/100 people read hockey-related content and out of those people, 1/100 pages read is about hockey, it means that you're reaching about 1/10000 page views. Now if you do implement user tracking, you're available inventory is 1/100 page views.

troupo 2y ago
> I could provide a long answer but the gist of it is that the study is flawed. Show me a non-flawed study that shows you need vast amounts of user data and tracking, for each user, throughout their lifetime to deliver ads > No, it didn't. Yes, yes it did. The skyrocketing revenue is attributable to increased internet usage across the globe, and Google outright owning a large chunk of it. > It does because contextual advertisement does not provide enough volumes and lower performance Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. > Example: Example: if you collect and sell vast amounts of sensitive user data without user's consent, and the outcome is indistinguishable from random noise, are you more effective? Example: if targeted ads are found to be somewhat more effective than contextual ads, is the lifelong invasive tracking of every user action a preferred tradeoff? (It's quite telling how people defending targeted advertising never address the elephant in the room)
- LunaSea 2y ago
  > Yes, yes it did. The skyrocketing revenue is attributable to increased internet usage across the globe, and Google outright owning a large chunk of it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. > Example: if you collect and sell vast amounts of sensitive user data without user's consent The users do give consent and this is handled by Consent Management Platforms and passed in the programmatic advertisement auction chain in the form of TC strings. The fact that you don't know this is also quite telling. > [...] and the outcome is indistinguishable from random noise, are you more effective? But it isn't, and if you are making claims, please provided sources. Why would brands and agencies pay additional fees for data if they would provide no uplift? > Example: if targeted ads are found to be somewhat more effective than contextual ads, is the lifelong invasive tracking of every user action a preferred tradeoff? Are users prepared to pay for the difference?
  - porridgeraisin 2y ago
    > Are users prepared to pay for the difference? If a service cannot be offered at a certain scale without such practices, it should not be offered at that scale. Before you start talking about how this enabled google's innovations, remember that the path we have taken to our current innovations is not the only path that could have been taken. By correctly squashing out immoral avenues like today's ad tech, we lay the path for the same innovations to happen taking a different, more ethical path. Sure, it could be that that would take more time and certain innovations would be delayed by an entire era[1], but note that we could also be going 5x faster than today w.r.t TPUs or whatever if we enslaved and forced enough people to work for Google's ML infrastructure team and nobody/nothing else. But we don't do that, do we? [1] on the flip side, certain innovations may also come an era early
    - troupo 2y ago
      > Before you start talking about how this enabled google's innovations To whit: Most the big projects Google started or acquired, and that are still available today, Google started or acquired before targeted advertising. Google itself, Docs, Youtube, Cloud, Android... Targeted advertising is not a requirement for innovation

troupo 2y ago

> I could provide a long answer but the gist of it is that the study is flawed. Show me a non-flawed study that shows you need vast amounts of user data and tracking, for each user, throughout their lifetime to deliver ads > No, it didn't. Yes, yes it did. The skyrocketing revenue is attributable to increased internet usage across the globe, and Google outright owning a large chunk of it. > It does because contextual advertisement does not provide enough volumes and lower performance Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. > Example: Example: if you collect and sell vast amounts of sensitive user data without user's consent, and the outcome is indistinguishable from random noise, are you more effective? Example: if targeted ads are found to be somewhat more effective than contextual ads, is the lifelong invasive tracking of every user action a preferred tradeoff? (It's quite telling how people defending targeted advertising never address the elephant in the room)

LunaSea 2y ago
> Yes, yes it did. The skyrocketing revenue is attributable to increased internet usage across the globe, and Google outright owning a large chunk of it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. > Example: if you collect and sell vast amounts of sensitive user data without user's consent The users do give consent and this is handled by Consent Management Platforms and passed in the programmatic advertisement auction chain in the form of TC strings. The fact that you don't know this is also quite telling. > [...] and the outcome is indistinguishable from random noise, are you more effective? But it isn't, and if you are making claims, please provided sources. Why would brands and agencies pay additional fees for data if they would provide no uplift? > Example: if targeted ads are found to be somewhat more effective than contextual ads, is the lifelong invasive tracking of every user action a preferred tradeoff? Are users prepared to pay for the difference?
- porridgeraisin 2y ago
  > Are users prepared to pay for the difference? If a service cannot be offered at a certain scale without such practices, it should not be offered at that scale. Before you start talking about how this enabled google's innovations, remember that the path we have taken to our current innovations is not the only path that could have been taken. By correctly squashing out immoral avenues like today's ad tech, we lay the path for the same innovations to happen taking a different, more ethical path. Sure, it could be that that would take more time and certain innovations would be delayed by an entire era[1], but note that we could also be going 5x faster than today w.r.t TPUs or whatever if we enslaved and forced enough people to work for Google's ML infrastructure team and nobody/nothing else. But we don't do that, do we? [1] on the flip side, certain innovations may also come an era early
  - troupo 2y ago
    > Before you start talking about how this enabled google's innovations To whit: Most the big projects Google started or acquired, and that are still available today, Google started or acquired before targeted advertising. Google itself, Docs, Youtube, Cloud, Android... Targeted advertising is not a requirement for innovation