3 ms·
People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.
by csours 1y ago
People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.
- barrell 1y agoPeople overestimate outcomes and underestimate timeframes
- AstroBen 1y agoCompound growth starting from 0 is... always 0. Current LLMs have 0 general reasoning ability We haven't even taken the first step towards AGI
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- csours 1y ago0 and 0.0001 may be difficult to distinguish.
- AstroBen 1y agoYou need to show evidence of that 0.0001 first otherwise you're going off blind faith
- csours 1y agoI didn't make a claim either way. LLMs may well reach a closed endpoint without getting to AGI - this is my personal current belief - but people are certainly motivated to work on AGI
- AstroBen 1y agoOh for sure. I'm just fighting against the AGI hype. If we survive another 10,000 years I think we'll get there eventually but it's anyone's guess as to when
- jay_kyburz 1y agoWTF, my calculator is high school was already a step towards AGI.