Here were my predictions after Deepseek R1's release: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42883218 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42883218 It seems like

Here were my predictions after Deepseek R1's release: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42883218 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42883218 It seems likely that all of my predictions will come true. 1. H20 would be in huge demand in China due to Deepseek. [0] 2. Whitehouse likely to completely ban Nvidia chip exports to China. [1] 3. Chinese customers will put in huge orders for Nvidia chips in Q1/Q2 because they knew some export ban was coming. [2] 4. Whitehouse looking to ban Deepseek in US. [0]https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/nvidias-h20-chip-orders-jump-chinese-firms-adopt-deepseeks-ai-models-sources-say-2025-02-25/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/n... [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/nvidia-says-it-will-record-5point5-billion-quarterly-charge-tied-to-h20-processors-exported-to-china.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/nvidia-says-it-will-record-5... [2]https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chinas-h3c-warns-nvidia-ai-chip-shortage-amid-surging-demand-2025-03-27/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/c... In some ways, this was very predictable. All the AI tech bros showed up at the whitehouse inauguration. Clearly they do not want competition from Chinese companies. It's an easy sell to Trump to ban Nvidia in China and to remove competition from Chinese models in US. Banning Nvidia will also make Nvidia chips theoretically cheaper in the US for companies like xAI and OpenAI because China is 30% of Nvidia's demand. In the long term, this is likely good for China because now tens of billions of real demand will flow into Chinese companies who aren't as competitive as TSMC and Nvidia combo. Let's say in the next 5-7 years, China will make something almost as good as Nvidia's best. In the short term, Chinese models will fall behind.