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> People are default overconfident with their estimated error bars. You say this but yet roughly in a top level comment mentions people keep their error bars t
by pests 2y ago
> People are default overconfident with their estimated error bars.
You say this but yet roughly in a top level comment mentions people keep their error bars too close.
- bigfudge 2y agoThey are meaning the same thing. The original comment pointed out that people’s qualitative description and mental model of the 95% interval means they are overconfident… they think 95 means ‘pretty sure I’m right’ rather than ‘it would be surprising to be wrong’
- kqr 2y agoSorry, my comment was phrased confusingly. Being overconfident with error bars means placing them too close to the point estimation, i.e. the error bars are too narrow.
- pests 2y agoAh right thanks, I read that backwards.