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I don't know why people keep thinking that China will attack Taiwan. It took HK and Macao without a shot. I think China is following Sun Tzu. "subduing the e

I don't know why people keep thinking that China will attack Taiwan. It took HK and Macao without a shot. I think China is following Sun Tzu. "subduing the enemy without fighting," is the epitome of strategic thinking in his book, The Art of War. This means achieving victory through cunning, deception, and maneuvering, rather than through direct confrontation and bloodshed" They are increasing their military knowing that US military costs 4+x as much. It might be 4x better so don't fight. Just bankrupt the US. Trump wants a $1T military budget next year. Why would China want to conquer the West? Buying what it wants is cheaper than an uncertain military battle fought with Nukes.

CharlieDigital 1y ago
What I still don't get is what could China possibly want with Taiwan? Naval routes? Just negotiate and use money instead; it'll be cheaper than war. Brainpower? Just offer higher salaries to come work in China. Taiwan is a tiny island smaller than Florida with only 20m people.
- andsoitis 1y ago
  1) Historical claims - the CCP views Taiwan as a breakaway province and considers unification important. After the Chinese Civil War ended in 1948, the defeated Republic of China (ROC) government fled to Taiwan while the CCP took control of China. 2) Political legitimacy - successful unification would be a nationalist victory for the CCP 3) Strategic importance - key geographic asset. It lies in the first island chain, a line of US-aligned territories that can potentially restrict China's naval access to the Pacific. Control over Taiwan gives China more leverage over sea lanes critical to global trade and security influence in East Asia 4) Economic, technology bonus points - Taiwan is a global tech powerhouse, especially in semiconductors. TSMC is the world's leading chipmaker. 5) Global power dynamics - unification would weaken US influence in the region
  - CharlieDigital 1y ago
    1-2 really just do not matter; I can't imagine anyone in the CCP views that as more important than their own internal matters. 3 as I said, they can just negotiate and throw money at the problem; it's cheaper than fighting a war. 4 they can already buy hardware from them and was doing so just fine before US stepped in. DeepSeek seemed to do fine and China may likely surpass Western AI development in the near future 5 I don't see how that's the case when the US has very little presence in TW compared to SK or JP. Taiwan is a hair on a gorilla's right knee.
    - throw3726382 1y ago
      Throughout Chinese history, all invasions of China from the sea had a staging area in Taiwan. This is the main reason.
    - andsoitis 1y ago
      Just answering your question "What I still don't get is what could China possibly want with Taiwan?". If you don't believe the rational I sketched, informed by analyses such as that by the Council of Foreign Relations[1], you can also learn more by reading directly from China's Mission in the EU about the China One principle: http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/more/20220812Taiwan/202208/t20220815_10743591.htm http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/more/20220812Taiwan/20220... [1] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-trump https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tens...
      - CharlieDigital 1y ago
        They can say and write whatever they want, it just doesn't make any logical sense like the US getting all worked up over Cuba.
        andrewflnr 1y ago
        Are you trying to evaluate their intelligence or predict their actions? I for one agree that attacking Taiwan is strategic folly. That doesn't mean they won't do it. Invading Ukraine was strategic folly too. The CCP are smarter than Putin, but not immune to mistakes. And again, look at their built strategy.
- andrewflnr 1y ago
  Regardless of the reasons (mostly political rather than rational, as my sibling comment laid out), the beach invasion barges we've been seeing are IMO a dead giveaway of intent and resolve to take Taiwan. Between that and American fecklessness, if I was Taiwanese I would be shitting my pants.

CharlieDigital 1y ago

What I still don't get is what could China possibly want with Taiwan? Naval routes? Just negotiate and use money instead; it'll be cheaper than war. Brainpower? Just offer higher salaries to come work in China. Taiwan is a tiny island smaller than Florida with only 20m people.

andsoitis 1y ago
1) Historical claims - the CCP views Taiwan as a breakaway province and considers unification important. After the Chinese Civil War ended in 1948, the defeated Republic of China (ROC) government fled to Taiwan while the CCP took control of China. 2) Political legitimacy - successful unification would be a nationalist victory for the CCP 3) Strategic importance - key geographic asset. It lies in the first island chain, a line of US-aligned territories that can potentially restrict China's naval access to the Pacific. Control over Taiwan gives China more leverage over sea lanes critical to global trade and security influence in East Asia 4) Economic, technology bonus points - Taiwan is a global tech powerhouse, especially in semiconductors. TSMC is the world's leading chipmaker. 5) Global power dynamics - unification would weaken US influence in the region
- CharlieDigital 1y ago
  1-2 really just do not matter; I can't imagine anyone in the CCP views that as more important than their own internal matters. 3 as I said, they can just negotiate and throw money at the problem; it's cheaper than fighting a war. 4 they can already buy hardware from them and was doing so just fine before US stepped in. DeepSeek seemed to do fine and China may likely surpass Western AI development in the near future 5 I don't see how that's the case when the US has very little presence in TW compared to SK or JP. Taiwan is a hair on a gorilla's right knee.
  - throw3726382 1y ago
    Throughout Chinese history, all invasions of China from the sea had a staging area in Taiwan. This is the main reason.
  - andsoitis 1y ago
    Just answering your question "What I still don't get is what could China possibly want with Taiwan?". If you don't believe the rational I sketched, informed by analyses such as that by the Council of Foreign Relations[1], you can also learn more by reading directly from China's Mission in the EU about the China One principle: http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/more/20220812Taiwan/202208/t20220815_10743591.htm http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/more/20220812Taiwan/20220... [1] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-trump https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tens...
    - CharlieDigital 1y ago
      They can say and write whatever they want, it just doesn't make any logical sense like the US getting all worked up over Cuba.
      - andrewflnr 1y ago
        Are you trying to evaluate their intelligence or predict their actions? I for one agree that attacking Taiwan is strategic folly. That doesn't mean they won't do it. Invading Ukraine was strategic folly too. The CCP are smarter than Putin, but not immune to mistakes. And again, look at their built strategy.
andrewflnr 1y ago
Regardless of the reasons (mostly political rather than rational, as my sibling comment laid out), the beach invasion barges we've been seeing are IMO a dead giveaway of intent and resolve to take Taiwan. Between that and American fecklessness, if I was Taiwanese I would be shitting my pants.