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He's a guy who ran a PR firm, he has no technical background or experience. He specifically stopped covering crypto because AI "generated more clicks". He only

He's a guy who ran a PR firm, he has no technical background or experience. He specifically stopped covering crypto because AI "generated more clicks". He only covers OpenAI because it's the one with the biggest brand recognition. He doesn't know anything about the underlying technology. His entire thesis that a single hyped company, that has no moat by the way, is some kind of single point of failure for the entire tech sector.

rglover 2y ago
> His entire thesis that a single hyped company, that has no moat by the way, is some kind of single point of failure for the entire tech sector. It's a perceptual/psychological point of failure, not an actual one. If OpenAI (the "blue chip" of AI) collapses, that will bring all other AI companies—both LLM providers and AI-powered apps—under scrutiny. Not only that, but if OpenAI collapses in a way where their APIs become unavailable (not likely, but possible), all of the products that depend on those APIs will have to scramble to replace them. And replacing an LLM is tricky as parity between them on certain tasks is currently limited. Keep in mind, tech is already in a shaky market. An insane amount of money has been pumped into tech (really, software) with relatively low ROI, both financially and societally. What looked like a burgeoning market was really just a lot of cheap money being pumped into massive gambles for ~10 years. OpenAI collapsing would be a massive stain on the veracity of anything any tech company says. It could accidentally trigger a short-term stock market crash as investors panic flee from tech stocks. If it did, you can bet the vultures in the media will be running hit piece after hit piece about the unreliability of tech, the limited ROI, etc to get eyeballs. That will guaranteed cause mass panic among retail investors (and force the hand of institutional investors).

rglover 2y ago

> His entire thesis that a single hyped company, that has no moat by the way, is some kind of single point of failure for the entire tech sector. It's a perceptual/psychological point of failure, not an actual one. If OpenAI (the "blue chip" of AI) collapses, that will bring all other AI companies—both LLM providers and AI-powered apps—under scrutiny. Not only that, but if OpenAI collapses in a way where their APIs become unavailable (not likely, but possible), all of the products that depend on those APIs will have to scramble to replace them. And replacing an LLM is tricky as parity between them on certain tasks is currently limited. Keep in mind, tech is already in a shaky market. An insane amount of money has been pumped into tech (really, software) with relatively low ROI, both financially and societally. What looked like a burgeoning market was really just a lot of cheap money being pumped into massive gambles for ~10 years. OpenAI collapsing would be a massive stain on the veracity of anything any tech company says. It could accidentally trigger a short-term stock market crash as investors panic flee from tech stocks. If it did, you can bet the vultures in the media will be running hit piece after hit piece about the unreliability of tech, the limited ROI, etc to get eyeballs. That will guaranteed cause mass panic among retail investors (and force the hand of institutional investors).