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> In 2025, the engineer probably beats Gemini. Sure, great. But in 2030, who wins this hypothetical? I don't think we need to wait for 2030. Today, using aider

> In 2025, the engineer probably beats Gemini. Sure, great. But in 2030, who wins this hypothetical? I don't think we need to wait for 2030. Today, using aider/cursor and Gemini-pro-2.5, I'm pretty sure a team of two or three senior developers with great domain knowledge would be competitive with a team of 10 average devs. Being a small, close-knit team has a lot of advantages. And LLMs can help close the productivity gap.

Sateeshm 2y ago
> I'm pretty sure a team of two or three senior developers with great domain knowledge would be competitive with a team of 10 average devs. This has always been true. LLMs didn't change that.
- ExxKA 2y ago
  Yes! Spend any amount of time, reading the implementation of powerfull algorithms (A* search, Bubble sort), and you will realize that the power is in the idea, not the feeble attempt at coding it in PHP, Go, JS or what ever.
- bryanrasmussen 2y ago
  The 10 average devs can produce hundreds of thousands of lines of buggy, poor performance code that implement thousands of features poorly in the same amount of time the senior developers could implement tens of thousands of lines of great code that implement hundreds of features perfectly. But what if the three senior devs could produce thousands of lines of great code that implement thousands of features perfectly. I don't think this is the case but I believe this is what the OP means. the interest is of course because what "the business" wants is thousands of features, perfectly or imperfectly is a secondary consideration. on edit: changed senior devs hundreds of thousands to thousands because one benefit is that much of the code the average make is not really needed.
  - swexbe 2y ago
    Typing shouldn't be what's taking up most of your time if you are a great dev writing great code.
    - bryanrasmussen 2y ago
      which kind of typing are we talking about here? if it's the kind that my hands do on a keyboard that is obviously not what is meant by writing code.
jsk2600 2y ago
>I'm pretty sure a team of two or three senior developers with great domain knowledge would be competitive with a team of 10 average devs. You are comparing senior vs average devs here. What will happen if a team of 'two or three senior devs' with AI/ML tools compete with equally skilled 10 senior devs with AI/ML tools?
lordkrandel 2y ago
I think you're building a 100x tech debt with that.
- joelthelion 2y ago
  I agree that's a very real risk if you don't architect and test well.

Sateeshm 2y ago

> I'm pretty sure a team of two or three senior developers with great domain knowledge would be competitive with a team of 10 average devs. This has always been true. LLMs didn't change that.

ExxKA 2y ago
Yes! Spend any amount of time, reading the implementation of powerfull algorithms (A* search, Bubble sort), and you will realize that the power is in the idea, not the feeble attempt at coding it in PHP, Go, JS or what ever.
bryanrasmussen 2y ago
The 10 average devs can produce hundreds of thousands of lines of buggy, poor performance code that implement thousands of features poorly in the same amount of time the senior developers could implement tens of thousands of lines of great code that implement hundreds of features perfectly. But what if the three senior devs could produce thousands of lines of great code that implement thousands of features perfectly. I don't think this is the case but I believe this is what the OP means. the interest is of course because what "the business" wants is thousands of features, perfectly or imperfectly is a secondary consideration. on edit: changed senior devs hundreds of thousands to thousands because one benefit is that much of the code the average make is not really needed.
- swexbe 2y ago
  Typing shouldn't be what's taking up most of your time if you are a great dev writing great code.
  - bryanrasmussen 2y ago
    which kind of typing are we talking about here? if it's the kind that my hands do on a keyboard that is obviously not what is meant by writing code.

jsk2600 2y ago

>I'm pretty sure a team of two or three senior developers with great domain knowledge would be competitive with a team of 10 average devs. You are comparing senior vs average devs here. What will happen if a team of 'two or three senior devs' with AI/ML tools compete with equally skilled 10 senior devs with AI/ML tools?

lordkrandel 2y ago

I think you're building a 100x tech debt with that.

joelthelion 2y ago
I agree that's a very real risk if you don't architect and test well.