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> given AI seems like a winner takes all type market Does it, though? LLMs seemed magic when they arrived, and they continue to get better, but it seems like i
by dkarl 2y ago
> given AI seems like a winner takes all type market
Does it, though? LLMs seemed magic when they arrived, and they continue to get better, but it seems like it takes a ton of hand-holding and experimentation to get useful work out of them. That opens up the field for different players to thrive in different niches, finding ways to make AI work for different applications in different industries.
In the realm of using LLMs for software development, for which you'd expect HNers to have a decent amount of hands-on experience, you see multiple LLMs from multiple companies mentioned in every conversation.
I think the LLM success stories are going to be companies that discover niches where the state of the art is sufficient to significantly reduce the amount of labor required for labor-intensive jobs, but it takes a combination of AI mastery and domain savvy to make it happen. Theoretically, companies like OpenAI should have a head start at finding and exploiting those opportunities, but history says the big success stories will emerge as the survivors of a gold rush where thousands or tens of thousands of companies are founded to "bring AI to X" where X is healthcare, insurance, shipping, underwear, etc. 99% of those companies will fail, a few will find seams of ore to exploit, and one or two will become the Microsoft or Amazon of their generation.