This is presuming you get to keep the shipyards. They're no use to you if they're all blown to hell in the first 48 hours - ships take months to build at minimu

This is presuming you get to keep the shipyards. They're no use to you if they're all blown to hell in the first 48 hours - ships take months to build at minimum. If you lose your navy in the mean time, you won't be building anything. This is the problem with these assumptions: they're all rooted in the industrial warfare the US won in WW2 but are not contextually accurate to today. WW2 wasn't fought with satellite targeting and precision cruise missiles which could be fired from half the planet away. Ukraine is currently hitting targets on the other side of Russia - "behind the lines" doesn't really exist for strategic assets anymore.