2 ms·

Because it is a punishment for both sides. Trade is not zero sum: both sides of a deal typically get something they want. Conversely: cessation of trade preve

Because it is a punishment for both sides. Trade is not zero sum: both sides of a deal typically get something they want. Conversely: cessation of trade prevents both sides getting what they want. In this case the US wants to have their cake and eat it too: they require Chinese imports to continue, but they want to turn the faucet down to a trickle. China needs the faucet on at full throughput, there is no practical difference to them between a trickle and “off”, so that’s their poker hand, and they’re playing it. I think Trump’s team overestimated the importance of the US market to China, and they underestimated the impact on their own economy. They don’t hold any cards right now, as they like to put it.

xyzzy123 2y ago
It seems like the US decided to have the supply chain conflict now rather than wait for an inevitable geopolitical trigger (say, Taiwan) that would kick it off organically. Which, yeah that's likely to be lose-lose economically. You'd have to have some other objective for it to make sense (note: I am not claiming it makes sense).
- jiggawatts 2y ago
  I've heard about a dozen retroactive justifications from various right-wing pundits, all of which are nonsense. Fundamentally it all boils down to "Trump likes tariffs". It's like the various justifications for the second amendment, all of which are just a fantasy. The real argument is "I like guns", that's it. If America actually wanted to wean themselves off Chinese industrial output, this would have to be done with highly predictable tariffs ramped up slowly over time with a concurrent program of incentives for local manufacturers. What they're doing right now is grabbing China's arm, punching themselves in the face with it, and screaming "I hope this hurts your fist!" as a way to avoid a fist-fight in the future they didn't start themselves.

xyzzy123 2y ago

It seems like the US decided to have the supply chain conflict now rather than wait for an inevitable geopolitical trigger (say, Taiwan) that would kick it off organically. Which, yeah that's likely to be lose-lose economically. You'd have to have some other objective for it to make sense (note: I am not claiming it makes sense).

jiggawatts 2y ago
I've heard about a dozen retroactive justifications from various right-wing pundits, all of which are nonsense. Fundamentally it all boils down to "Trump likes tariffs". It's like the various justifications for the second amendment, all of which are just a fantasy. The real argument is "I like guns", that's it. If America actually wanted to wean themselves off Chinese industrial output, this would have to be done with highly predictable tariffs ramped up slowly over time with a concurrent program of incentives for local manufacturers. What they're doing right now is grabbing China's arm, punching themselves in the face with it, and screaming "I hope this hurts your fist!" as a way to avoid a fist-fight in the future they didn't start themselves.