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If and when autopilot achieves level 3, the economic equation changes substantially. Whoever does it, I'd be in line demanding that they take my money. After ye
by delichon 2y ago
If and when autopilot achieves level 3, the economic equation changes substantially. Whoever does it, I'd be in line demanding that they take my money. After years of false promises I understand the skepticism, but think that the industry is finally getting close. Tesla's large Cybercab bet depends on it so they are demonstrating their confidence in cash. From the beginning it has been Tesla's strategy to leverage the luxury market to fund their market-wide ambitions.
- moogly 2y ago> If and when autopilot achieves level 3, the economic equation changes substantially. How so?
- horsawlarway 2y agoYeah, but there are actually autonomous cabs rolling out to my metro, and Tesla didn't build them... So it won't be a monopoly. Which means you're right back to a cutthroat, low margin business. Personally... I'm generally a "buy the whole market" kind of investor. But I'm actively looking to exclude Tesla. It's shaping up to be a complete and total bust.
- revm 2y agoHow would you exclude Tesla?
- jcranmer 2y agoThere are probably ETFs that are something like "all of S&P except for Tesla".
- ryandrake 2y agoBuy a broad-market ETF, and then short the exact amount of TSLA in that ETF's holdings?
- janalsncm 2y agoI looked into it, you need to do something called “direct indexing” if you want to specifically exclude a stock. Here is one example, Wealthfront can also do it. https://www.schwab.com/direct-indexing https://www.schwab.com/direct-indexing
- arrosenberg 2y agoCalls on SPY, puts on Tesla.
- JumpCrisscross 2y agoYou're exposing yourself to tracking error every time the index rebalances. If you want to show it to the man, just go to a protest while buying a cheap index fund.
- arrosenberg 2y agoI don't personally care enough, I made my point years ago when I bought my EV from a different manufacturer.
- JumpCrisscross 2y agoNot super relevant. The point is using puts to hedge out Tesla is a bad way to buy the market ex Tesla.
- arrosenberg 2y agoIf you want to buy the market and bet against Tesla, it's actually a great way. It may not be the most profitable, but that's never been the point doing something out of protest or spite.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> If you want to buy the market and bet against Tesla, it's actually a great way Nope. Certainly not in the long term. You’re better off direct indexing. If you don’t have enough money to direct index, you’re wasting money.
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- delichon 2y ago> Yeah, but there are actually autonomous cabs rolling out to my metro The economic difference is that a level 2 cab requires much higher remote labor costs than a level 3 cab to achieve the same productivity, almost by definition of "level 3". As long as a cab company has that advantage they can undercut the competition by price and still make a profit. That advantage is definitely not yet a given. It could even be achieved by open source models and go global for everyone at once. In that scenario Tesla still starts with a large advantage in cost per cab over everyone but BYD.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> Tesla still starts with a large advantage in cost per cab over everyone but BYD Waymo is way ahead of Tesla.
- itsoktocry 2y ago>In that scenario Tesla still starts with a large advantage in cost per cab over everyone but BYD. They literally don't have a cab. Waymo is driving people around right now.
- Workaccount2 2y agoIt kills me that no one else has an "autopilot" on par with Tesla's. All the competitors have very limited scope and tight constraints on conditions. Tesla is the only one you can take into a new neighborhood and it will drive around without saying "sorry not available here".
- asadotzler 2y agoIf you're doing that in my neighborhood, better watch out because I am prepared to defend my family and friends from your monstrosity with considered force and those vehicles are quite easy to "manage" for anyone who knows anything about it.
- dzhiurgis 2y ago"Rocket man bad" at it's finest
- thenayr 2y ago[dead]
- Muskisapuss 2y ago[dead]
- tialaramex 2y agoLevel 3 is not useful. Humans can't do the rapid task switch that's imagined, so in practice you're still supervising the car at all times even though notionally SAE says that's not what you're doing. Or, likely, you aren't supervising (e.g. you're looking at your phone) and so each such transition is incredibly dangerous.
- wingspar 2y agoMercedes Drive-Pilot is level 3 and available now, apparently. Looks like recently updated to work up to 95km/h. https://group.mercedes-benz.com/innovations/product-innovation/autonomous-driving/drive-pilot-95-kmh.html https://group.mercedes-benz.com/innovations/product-innovati...
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> If and when autopilot achieves level 3, the economic equation changes substantially The market is limited to America. Nobody is going to let Tesla develop a monopoly (or even commanding lead) in their country for self-driving cars after the way Musk has behaved with Starlink. (I suspect a ban on cameras-only self-driving cars would be popular in e.g. California and New York, too.)