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Who's going to bother to invest in American manufacturing when the tariff "strategy" changes daily? How many times will the tariffs shift between Lutnick's com

Who's going to bother to invest in American manufacturing when the tariff "strategy" changes daily? How many times will the tariffs shift between Lutnick's comments here and 1 month from now? Uncertainty does not encourage investment. So, we probably shouldn't believe them when they say that's why they're doing this.

the-golden-one 2y ago
This is the key point. It’s uncertainty which spooks the markets and investor confidence.
- hedora 2y ago
  Are there any decent alternatives? At what point does transparent securities fraud generally lead to capital flight?
  - whatshisface 2y ago
    Most of the world has an unstable government that does stuff like this every decade or two at least. If the US is going to be just as bad, everywhere is an alternative, although none of them will be as good as the US was.
    - rsynnott 2y ago
      ... I mean this is the sort of thing that _developing world_ countries do, sure, but it's not at all the norm for a developed economy.
      - whatshisface 2y ago
        I would say that most of the world falls into that category.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
    There's tons of global markets to invest in, not just US, and of course other US investment instruments other than stocks if you feel those are more investable in current climate. There has already been capital flight. Trump's (temporary?) U-turn on tariffs was due to a massive sell-off in US Treasuries, largely by the Japanese, which caused yields to jump.
    - dummydummy1234 2y ago
      Was that a actual selloff, or an unwinding of the basis trade leading to a selloff?
      - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
        I don't know - I'd initially seen it discussed without mention of that, but now I see there's talk of two different basis trades ... https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250412232/how-the-trade-of-the-year-in-the-bond-market-became-a-nightmare-for-investors-after-trumps-tariffs https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250412232/how... The US would certainly be in trouble if the perception of instability reduces the appetite for US debt, or if holders choose to weaponize it.
dexwiz 2y ago
This is not about investment, it's about extortion. Bend the knee, or be destroyed. No US business sector can exist without foreign imports. It's a perfect lever to extract fealty from the corporate sector. They sell tariffs as all sort of things to different groups, sometimes out right lies (it's a tax on foreigners). But in the end it's only about control and power.
- spenvo 2y ago
  That and likely insider trading https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1911097542126784521?s=46&t=V4UsxfakzlMGqkK6nAqE7g https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1911097542126784521?s=46&t=V...
  - marpstar 2y ago
    Post was deleted.
- only-one1701 2y ago
  The president of my country thinks global finance is the same thing as hiring contractors in New York City. Which he was also bad at.
revnode 2y ago
> Who's going to bother to invest in American manufacturing when the tariff "strategy" changes daily? Isn't that the point? If things are so unstable, you avoid the instability by manufacturing domestically.
- only-one1701 2y ago
  [flagged]
- triceratops 2y ago
  Yeah investors love investing in unstable places /s
- macintux 2y ago
  Manufacturing is extremely capital-intensive with a lead time of years. That's a huge gamble to make when policy will probably change by the time you're done and leave you manufacturing at a big loss.
- taylortbb 2y ago
  But then you risk tariff policy changing, and suddenly you're undercut by foreign factories again, and you lose all your investment in the American factory. It still needs certainty that the tariffs are staying. The uncertainty only works to return manufacturing where America is cost-competitive without tariffs, and that's a tiny slice of manufacturing.
- megaman821 2y ago
  No, what if the tariffs go away before you are done building your widget factory. Now you have widgets that are too expensive to sell to anyone. If they want anyone to believe that the tariffs will remain in effect long enough to make a profit, they will need to pass a bill. Ideally, a bill that ratchets tariffs up over a long enough period of time to actually build the capacity in the US of the thing you want to tariff.
  - peeters 2y ago
    Still not sure a bill will give you that stability, since Trump has used loopholes to sidestep ratified trade agreements that he himself negotiated. Anything signed by this President isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
aredox 2y ago
The USA is back to being a monarchy, after a 235 year run as a democracy (or 60 years[0], if you want the real experience of 20 million people at the time): everything depends on the mad king's decrees, and no one can rein him in. [0] https://archive.is/mkJIi https://archive.is/mkJIi
jillyboel 2y ago
its what the techbros voted for

the-golden-one 2y ago

This is the key point. It’s uncertainty which spooks the markets and investor confidence.

hedora 2y ago
Are there any decent alternatives? At what point does transparent securities fraud generally lead to capital flight?
- whatshisface 2y ago
  Most of the world has an unstable government that does stuff like this every decade or two at least. If the US is going to be just as bad, everywhere is an alternative, although none of them will be as good as the US was.
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    ... I mean this is the sort of thing that _developing world_ countries do, sure, but it's not at all the norm for a developed economy.
    - whatshisface 2y ago
      I would say that most of the world falls into that category.
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
  There's tons of global markets to invest in, not just US, and of course other US investment instruments other than stocks if you feel those are more investable in current climate. There has already been capital flight. Trump's (temporary?) U-turn on tariffs was due to a massive sell-off in US Treasuries, largely by the Japanese, which caused yields to jump.
  - dummydummy1234 2y ago
    Was that a actual selloff, or an unwinding of the basis trade leading to a selloff?
    - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
      I don't know - I'd initially seen it discussed without mention of that, but now I see there's talk of two different basis trades ... https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250412232/how-the-trade-of-the-year-in-the-bond-market-became-a-nightmare-for-investors-after-trumps-tariffs https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250412232/how... The US would certainly be in trouble if the perception of instability reduces the appetite for US debt, or if holders choose to weaponize it.

dexwiz 2y ago

This is not about investment, it's about extortion. Bend the knee, or be destroyed. No US business sector can exist without foreign imports. It's a perfect lever to extract fealty from the corporate sector. They sell tariffs as all sort of things to different groups, sometimes out right lies (it's a tax on foreigners). But in the end it's only about control and power.

spenvo 2y ago
That and likely insider trading https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1911097542126784521?s=46&t=V4UsxfakzlMGqkK6nAqE7g https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1911097542126784521?s=46&t=V...
- marpstar 2y ago
  Post was deleted.
only-one1701 2y ago
The president of my country thinks global finance is the same thing as hiring contractors in New York City. Which he was also bad at.

revnode 2y ago

> Who's going to bother to invest in American manufacturing when the tariff "strategy" changes daily? Isn't that the point? If things are so unstable, you avoid the instability by manufacturing domestically.

only-one1701 2y ago
[flagged]
triceratops 2y ago
Yeah investors love investing in unstable places /s
macintux 2y ago
Manufacturing is extremely capital-intensive with a lead time of years. That's a huge gamble to make when policy will probably change by the time you're done and leave you manufacturing at a big loss.
taylortbb 2y ago
But then you risk tariff policy changing, and suddenly you're undercut by foreign factories again, and you lose all your investment in the American factory. It still needs certainty that the tariffs are staying. The uncertainty only works to return manufacturing where America is cost-competitive without tariffs, and that's a tiny slice of manufacturing.
megaman821 2y ago
No, what if the tariffs go away before you are done building your widget factory. Now you have widgets that are too expensive to sell to anyone. If they want anyone to believe that the tariffs will remain in effect long enough to make a profit, they will need to pass a bill. Ideally, a bill that ratchets tariffs up over a long enough period of time to actually build the capacity in the US of the thing you want to tariff.
- peeters 2y ago
  Still not sure a bill will give you that stability, since Trump has used loopholes to sidestep ratified trade agreements that he himself negotiated. Anything signed by this President isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

aredox 2y ago

The USA is back to being a monarchy, after a 235 year run as a democracy (or 60 years[0], if you want the real experience of 20 million people at the time): everything depends on the mad king's decrees, and no one can rein him in. [0] https://archive.is/mkJIi https://archive.is/mkJIi

jillyboel 2y ago

its what the techbros voted for