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> No guarantees that Google discover a meaningful business model here... I don't understand this sentiment at all. The business model writes itself (so to spe

> No guarantees that Google discover a meaningful business model here... I don't understand this sentiment at all. The business model writes itself (so to speak). This is the company that perfected the art of serving up micro-targeted ads to people at the moment they are seeking a solution to a problem. Just swap the search box for a chat bot. For a while they'll keep the ads off to the side, but over time the ads will become harder and harder to distinguish from the chat bot content. One day, they'll dissapear altogether and companies will pay to subtly bias the AI towards their products and services. It will be subtle--undetectable by end users--but easily quantified and monetized by Google. Companies will also pay to integrate their products and services into Google's agents. When you ask Gemini for a ride, does Uber or Lyft send a car? (Trick question. Waymo does, of course.) When you ask for a pasta bowl, does Grubhub or Doordash fill the order? When Gemini writes a boutique CRM for your vegan catering service, what service does it use for seamless biometric authentication, for payment processing, for SMS and email marketing? What payroll service does it suggest could be added on in a couple seconds of auto-generated code? AI allows Google to continue it's existing business model while opening up new, lucrative opportunities.

panarky 1y ago
> chatbots ... provided for free ... ads Just because the first LLM product people paid for was a chatbot does not mean that chat will be the dominant commercial use of AI. And if the dominant use is agents that replace knowledge workers, then they'll cost closer to $2000 per month than $20 or free, and an ad-based business model won't work.
- netcan 1y ago
  True. This is my point too. The actual business models and revenue sources are still unknown. Consumer subscriptions happens to be the first major model. Ads still aren't. Many other models could dwarf either of these. It's very early to call the final score.
  - anon84873628 1y ago
    I still think it's pretty clear. Google doesn't have to get a new business off the ground, just keep improving the integration into Workspace, Gmail, Cloud, Android etc. I don't see users paying for ChatGPT and then copy/pasting into those other places even if the model is slightly better. Google will just slowly roll out premium plans that include access to AI features. And as far as selling pickaxes go, GCP is in a far better position to serve the top of market than OpenAI. Some companies will wire together multiple point solutions but large enterprises will want a consolidated complete stack. GCP already offers you compute clusters and BigQuery and all the rest.
netcan 1y ago
>Just swap the search box for a chat bot. Perhaps... but perhaps not. A chatbot instead of a search box may not be how the future looks. Also... a chatbot prompt may not (probably won't) translate from search query smoothly... in a Way That keep ad markets intact. That "perfected art" of search advertising is highly optimized. You (probably) loose all of that in transition. Any new advertising products will be intrepid territory. You could not have predicted in advance that search advertising would dwarf video (yourube) advertising as a segment. Meanwhile... they need to keep their market share at 90%.
brookst 1y ago
I don’t think it works. Search is the perfect place for ads for exactly the reasons you state: people have high intent. But a majority of chatbot usage is not searching for the solution to a problem. And if he Chatbot is serving the ads when I’m using it for creative writing, reformatting text, having a python function, written, etc, I’m going to be annoyed and switch to a different product. Search is all about information retrieval. AI is all about task accomplishment. I don’t think ads work well in the latter , perhaps some subset, like the task is really complicated or the AI can tell the user is failing to achieve it. But I don’t think it’s nearly as could have a fit as search.
- Spacecosmonaut 1y ago
  Obviously, an LLM is in a perfect position to decide whether an add can be "injected" into the current conversation. If you're using it for creative writing it will be add free. But chances are you will also use it to solve real world problems where relevant adds can be injected via product or service suggestions.
  - niij 1y ago
    "ad" is short for advertisement. That's the word you're looking for here. Add is a verb meaning to combine 2 things together.
- alienthrowaway 1y ago
  > And if he Chatbot is serving the ads when I’m using it for creative writing, reformatting text, having a python function, written, etc, I’m going to be annoyed and switch to a different product. You may not even notice it when AI does a product placement when it's done opportunistically in creative writing (see Hollywood). There also are plenty of high-intent assistant-type AI tasks.
- anon84873628 1y ago
  The intent will be obvious from the prompt and context. The AI will behave differently when called from a Doc about the yearly sales strategy vs consumer search app.
cgh 1y ago
Perhaps ironically, I know a guy who uses ChatGPT to write ad copy. The snake eats its own tail.
- neilv 1y ago
  Is this someone someone working as a writer, who is just phoning it in (LLM-ing it in)? Or is this someone who needs writing but can't do it themselves, and if they didn't have the LLM, they would pay a low-end human writer?
  - hadlock 1y ago
    A friend of mine works in advertising/marketing guy at the director level (Career ad guy), for big brands like nationwide cell carriers, big box stores etc, but mostly telcom stuff I think, and he uses it every day; he calls it "my second brain". LLM are great at riffing on ideas and brainstorming sessions.
UltraSane 1y ago
LLM based advertising has amazing potential when you consider that you can train them to try to persuade people to buy the advertised products and services.
- tsimionescu 1y ago
  That seems like a recipe for class action false advertising lawsuits. The AI is extremely likely to make materially false claims, and if this text is an advertisement, whoever placed it is legally liable for that.
  - anon84873628 1y ago
    I don't think we should expect that risk to dissuade these companies. They will plow ahead, fight for years in court, then slightly change the product if forced to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- prettyblocks 1y ago
  How would you track this?
Izikiel43 1y ago
> micro-targeted ads to people at the moment they are seeking a solution to a problem Personal/anecdotal experience, but I've bought more stuff out of instagram ads than google ads ever.
michaelbrave 1y ago
I imagine it would be easy for them to do similar to the TV guides of yesteryear(the company that owned it used it primarily for self promotion with just enough competitor promotion to fly under the radar and still seem useful), where it gives good recommendations sure, but 60-70% of those recommendations are the paid ones or the ones you own for you custom LLM.

panarky 1y ago

> chatbots ... provided for free ... ads Just because the first LLM product people paid for was a chatbot does not mean that chat will be the dominant commercial use of AI. And if the dominant use is agents that replace knowledge workers, then they'll cost closer to $2000 per month than $20 or free, and an ad-based business model won't work.

netcan 1y ago
True. This is my point too. The actual business models and revenue sources are still unknown. Consumer subscriptions happens to be the first major model. Ads still aren't. Many other models could dwarf either of these. It's very early to call the final score.
- anon84873628 1y ago
  I still think it's pretty clear. Google doesn't have to get a new business off the ground, just keep improving the integration into Workspace, Gmail, Cloud, Android etc. I don't see users paying for ChatGPT and then copy/pasting into those other places even if the model is slightly better. Google will just slowly roll out premium plans that include access to AI features. And as far as selling pickaxes go, GCP is in a far better position to serve the top of market than OpenAI. Some companies will wire together multiple point solutions but large enterprises will want a consolidated complete stack. GCP already offers you compute clusters and BigQuery and all the rest.

netcan 1y ago

>Just swap the search box for a chat bot. Perhaps... but perhaps not. A chatbot instead of a search box may not be how the future looks. Also... a chatbot prompt may not (probably won't) translate from search query smoothly... in a Way That keep ad markets intact. That "perfected art" of search advertising is highly optimized. You (probably) loose all of that in transition. Any new advertising products will be intrepid territory. You could not have predicted in advance that search advertising would dwarf video (yourube) advertising as a segment. Meanwhile... they need to keep their market share at 90%.

brookst 1y ago

I don’t think it works. Search is the perfect place for ads for exactly the reasons you state: people have high intent. But a majority of chatbot usage is not searching for the solution to a problem. And if he Chatbot is serving the ads when I’m using it for creative writing, reformatting text, having a python function, written, etc, I’m going to be annoyed and switch to a different product. Search is all about information retrieval. AI is all about task accomplishment. I don’t think ads work well in the latter , perhaps some subset, like the task is really complicated or the AI can tell the user is failing to achieve it. But I don’t think it’s nearly as could have a fit as search.

Spacecosmonaut 1y ago
Obviously, an LLM is in a perfect position to decide whether an add can be "injected" into the current conversation. If you're using it for creative writing it will be add free. But chances are you will also use it to solve real world problems where relevant adds can be injected via product or service suggestions.
- niij 1y ago
  "ad" is short for advertisement. That's the word you're looking for here. Add is a verb meaning to combine 2 things together.
alienthrowaway 1y ago
> And if he Chatbot is serving the ads when I’m using it for creative writing, reformatting text, having a python function, written, etc, I’m going to be annoyed and switch to a different product. You may not even notice it when AI does a product placement when it's done opportunistically in creative writing (see Hollywood). There also are plenty of high-intent assistant-type AI tasks.
anon84873628 1y ago
The intent will be obvious from the prompt and context. The AI will behave differently when called from a Doc about the yearly sales strategy vs consumer search app.

cgh 1y ago

Perhaps ironically, I know a guy who uses ChatGPT to write ad copy. The snake eats its own tail.

neilv 1y ago
Is this someone someone working as a writer, who is just phoning it in (LLM-ing it in)? Or is this someone who needs writing but can't do it themselves, and if they didn't have the LLM, they would pay a low-end human writer?
- hadlock 1y ago
  A friend of mine works in advertising/marketing guy at the director level (Career ad guy), for big brands like nationwide cell carriers, big box stores etc, but mostly telcom stuff I think, and he uses it every day; he calls it "my second brain". LLM are great at riffing on ideas and brainstorming sessions.

UltraSane 1y ago

LLM based advertising has amazing potential when you consider that you can train them to try to persuade people to buy the advertised products and services.

tsimionescu 1y ago
That seems like a recipe for class action false advertising lawsuits. The AI is extremely likely to make materially false claims, and if this text is an advertisement, whoever placed it is legally liable for that.
- anon84873628 1y ago
  I don't think we should expect that risk to dissuade these companies. They will plow ahead, fight for years in court, then slightly change the product if forced to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
prettyblocks 1y ago
How would you track this?

Izikiel43 1y ago

> micro-targeted ads to people at the moment they are seeking a solution to a problem Personal/anecdotal experience, but I've bought more stuff out of instagram ads than google ads ever.

michaelbrave 1y ago

I imagine it would be easy for them to do similar to the TV guides of yesteryear(the company that owned it used it primarily for self promotion with just enough competitor promotion to fly under the radar and still seem useful), where it gives good recommendations sure, but 60-70% of those recommendations are the paid ones or the ones you own for you custom LLM.