You don't have to beat the actuaries. The actuaries just have to take less profit than what you would have paid in taxes for the plans. With perfect predictio

You don't have to beat the actuaries. The actuaries just have to take less profit than what you would have paid in taxes for the plans. With perfect prediction (actuary tables), you would break even minus the profit of the insurance company. Since you paid the premiums with before tax money and the benefit is tax free, you make money depending on the relationship between your tax rate and the insurance "tax."