I don't think proving a negative is really useful here, the only reason to believe that they WOULD grant asylum is on the basis of a tiny minority party backing

I don't think proving a negative is really useful here, the only reason to believe that they WOULD grant asylum is on the basis of a tiny minority party backing a single politician. You also have to consider the asylum backlog in all of Western Europe, and the circumstances driving those people to apply. Is an American with a vague sense of dread, but no actual threat to their life going to make a better case than a MENA region refugee? A Ukrainian? I know that people like to dismiss this sort of thinking as "Oppression Olympics", but the reality is that there are a very limited number of "slots" for asylum seekers in a country like Norway and therefore an element of competition does exist. Who has a more pressing need? Someone fleeing a war zone? An LGBT person from a country like Afghanistan? Or an American upset about divisive political rhetoric?