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>More robots, fewer people. It would be amusing if after all this turmoil the work came back to the US but it barely increased manufacturing employment.

snotrockets 2y ago
It won’t come back, as it never were in the US.
bildung 2y ago
Your scenario is more like a best-case option, actually. I mean currently there are only 13M people employed in manufacturing in the US [0], while output is at an all time high [1]. The vast majority of this manufacturing is dependent on components imported from other countries - which just got much more expensive. So even if employment in manufacuturing would increase by 20% (unrealistic IMO), that would only translate to 2.6M people - while at the same time losing multiples of that in better-paid jobs in other industries, mostly services. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...
- rapind 2y ago
  I think you might even lose a bunch of these jobs, at least in the short term, as businesses now need to free up money (they likely hadn't planned to initially) to pay for tariffs before their goods / parts are auctioned off at the port. That's even before consumer spending tightens up due to rising prices, and declining stocks.
delfinom 2y ago
Pretty much guaranteed. The goal of modern automation isn't more people it's less. People love to spout "but the industrial revolution just made people able to do more jobs". But the goal of modern automation is to _replace all jobs_ that it can. Then you hire 4 guys to maintain all the automation between 5 factories they drive between as needed.
- colechristensen 2y ago
  Yes, that's what civilization -> industrialization -> automation does: eliminate jobs, which opens up opportunities for new jobs. you are no longer an animal spending most of your waking life searching for food, nor do you build your own shelter, make your own clothes, construct tools, etc yes, automation seeks to eliminate factory jobs, most of them are pretty awful anyway. this opens up new options as every step along the way always has and yes, the change isn't always easy for the folks that have to find something new
alchemist1e9 2y ago
The goal isn’t actually specifically employment increases, that’s mostly a marketing strategy, the real goal is national security. US, Japan, and South Korea seem to have decided enough is enough with Chinese aspirations and threats to Taiwan, so US has convinced them to build additional capacity in the US and also to have those nations increase defense spending. Notice Japan has started joining NATO command and participating in NATO missions. I predict Japan will the be first “deal” announced by Trump administration, with South Korea soon afterwards. It makes sense for these allies, the logic is we should fortify our supply lines building redundant facilities in US homeland which is much harder for China to disrupt and attack, you guys start buying lots of F-47s, we start massive ship building, re-industrialize as rapidly as possible. Then should China try anything and somehow mess you guys up, the US will come back a get you out of it.
- bluGill 2y ago
  That would be sane, but it makes no sense then why Trump is threatening tarrifs on Canada or the EU - both places that also need to do the same. (move manufacturing out of China)
  - alchemist1e9 2y ago
    Sure it does. The strategy is based on chaos and reminding all the world, allies included that the US is in charge and they want some very specific changes from both Canada and EU, they need them to militarize quickly, the US military is furious that all their allies appear to be almost incapable, very little naval power specifically. I’d even argue the implied threat to leave NATO, the talk of annexation of Canada and Greenland, it’s all strategic psychological warfare on allies to shock them into action … and it’s working … take a look a Germany’s new military budget and plans. There is also an intentional devaluation of the dollar to assist in re-industrialization. This is all national security and world order driven, not economics, and it’s actually the optimal time during a strong domestic US economy to try to make these changes.
    - cachehit 2y ago

snotrockets 2y ago

It won’t come back, as it never were in the US.

bildung 2y ago

Your scenario is more like a best-case option, actually. I mean currently there are only 13M people employed in manufacturing in the US [0], while output is at an all time high [1]. The vast majority of this manufacturing is dependent on components imported from other countries - which just got much more expensive. So even if employment in manufacuturing would increase by 20% (unrealistic IMO), that would only translate to 2.6M people - while at the same time losing multiples of that in better-paid jobs in other industries, mostly services. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...

rapind 2y ago
I think you might even lose a bunch of these jobs, at least in the short term, as businesses now need to free up money (they likely hadn't planned to initially) to pay for tariffs before their goods / parts are auctioned off at the port. That's even before consumer spending tightens up due to rising prices, and declining stocks.

delfinom 2y ago

Pretty much guaranteed. The goal of modern automation isn't more people it's less. People love to spout "but the industrial revolution just made people able to do more jobs". But the goal of modern automation is to _replace all jobs_ that it can. Then you hire 4 guys to maintain all the automation between 5 factories they drive between as needed.

colechristensen 2y ago
Yes, that's what civilization -> industrialization -> automation does: eliminate jobs, which opens up opportunities for new jobs. you are no longer an animal spending most of your waking life searching for food, nor do you build your own shelter, make your own clothes, construct tools, etc yes, automation seeks to eliminate factory jobs, most of them are pretty awful anyway. this opens up new options as every step along the way always has and yes, the change isn't always easy for the folks that have to find something new

alchemist1e9 2y ago

The goal isn’t actually specifically employment increases, that’s mostly a marketing strategy, the real goal is national security. US, Japan, and South Korea seem to have decided enough is enough with Chinese aspirations and threats to Taiwan, so US has convinced them to build additional capacity in the US and also to have those nations increase defense spending. Notice Japan has started joining NATO command and participating in NATO missions. I predict Japan will the be first “deal” announced by Trump administration, with South Korea soon afterwards. It makes sense for these allies, the logic is we should fortify our supply lines building redundant facilities in US homeland which is much harder for China to disrupt and attack, you guys start buying lots of F-47s, we start massive ship building, re-industrialize as rapidly as possible. Then should China try anything and somehow mess you guys up, the US will come back a get you out of it.

bluGill 2y ago
That would be sane, but it makes no sense then why Trump is threatening tarrifs on Canada or the EU - both places that also need to do the same. (move manufacturing out of China)
- alchemist1e9 2y ago
  Sure it does. The strategy is based on chaos and reminding all the world, allies included that the US is in charge and they want some very specific changes from both Canada and EU, they need them to militarize quickly, the US military is furious that all their allies appear to be almost incapable, very little naval power specifically. I’d even argue the implied threat to leave NATO, the talk of annexation of Canada and Greenland, it’s all strategic psychological warfare on allies to shock them into action … and it’s working … take a look a Germany’s new military budget and plans. There is also an intentional devaluation of the dollar to assist in re-industrialization. This is all national security and world order driven, not economics, and it’s actually the optimal time during a strong domestic US economy to try to make these changes.
  - cachehit 2y ago