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> That uncertainty does not create stable markets. Stable markets with bad outcomes are not worth defending on stability alone. > It does not create very accu

> That uncertainty does not create stable markets. Stable markets with bad outcomes are not worth defending on stability alone. > It does not create very accurate business decisions The business environment is not great. It does seem some part of that is the result of cheap Chinese goods that have displaced labor _and_ environmental costs flooding foreign markets. That China even uses proxy countries to push out even more is instructive. So, if not tariffs, then what should we use to solve this?

gmm1990 1y ago
Maybe start with smaller tariffs and go from there. But its not even worth defending current administration policies. Its either completely stupid or deliberately malevolent.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
  On what basis are you making this recommendation? Your personal experience negotiating nation-state level agreements between two hegemons?
  - BDPW 1y ago
    There is a deluge of experts in economics and other fields who clearly state this is not the right approach to bringing manufacturing to the US. Why wouldn't we trust experts in their fields?
    - ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
      What makes them experts in their fields? They have never done anything like this. Nor are historical analogues abundant.
      - gmm1990 1y ago
        That probably means its not a good strategy. Look at business activity, people are comparing it to early covid business conditions but its entirely self inflicted. You don't need to be an expert to see this is a failure. The assumption shouldn't be that Trump is acting in the interest of the average American or the American government.
thebruce87m 1y ago
> So, if not tariffs, then what should we use to solve this? I’d argue that tariffs that increase at a known rate are better than surprise large ones. Even a 1% increase a week every Monday for a year lets everyone’s supply chain adjust gradually. You’ll know within a few weeks how your product is affected and you’ll plan for the increase over the year. That’s probably still too fast though, since factories take time to build and the whole point is to encourage local manufacturing. Given the 4 year term trump could have gone for 3 years of increases with the hope that companies would start building factories and have them running by year 4.
grey-area 1y ago
Oh I don’t know, how about: Not imposing ludicrous tariffs based on flawed economics on the entire world at once? Not imposing tariffs with no warning on your closest allies and attempting to bully them into submission? Not imposing huge tariffs on some of the weakest nations you trade with (e.g. Laos, Vietnam). Not changing trade policy radically every few days and announcing it on social media? Not crashing the stock market, announcing a reverse on your social media platform, then boasting about how much money your billionaire friends made? Not calling one of your largest trading partners peasants and the then very clever, alternating between insults and praise like a two-bit mobster? This administration has made America a laughing stock; I don’t think many Americans realise just how much trust has been burned with allies since ‘liberation day’.
- timewizard 1y ago
  > based on flawed economics It's a simple formula based on balance of trade. > tariffs with no warning Some Hacker News types like to bury their head in the sand when inconvenient political news occurs but to say this happened without warning simply flags you as part of this group. > on some of the weakest nations you trade with (e.g. Laos, Vietnam). There is room for these countries to buy more American goods. These two countries also rebadge and ship out a lot of Chinese goods to evade tariffs. > changing trade policy radically every few days and announcing it on social media? So, do you want warnings, or not? > Not crashing the stock market, announcing a reverse on your social media platform, then boasting about how much money your billionaire friends made? If you didn't make any trades during this period how was your portfolio actually impacted? I would assume this is the majority of non billionaire investors. So the only ones who lost in the crash were the same billionaires. > calling one of your largest trading partners peasants and the then very clever, alternating between insults and praise like a two-bit mobster? Does that trading partner also act like a two bit mobster? If so, wouldn't this just be turnabout, or why is deference to hostile economic partners justified? > has made America a laughing stock That's an absurdly biased point of view. > I don’t think many Americans realise just how much trust has been burned with allies since ‘liberation day’. Not much. They didn't actually "trust" us before. I'm not sure how you'd measure that anyways. From my reading of foreign news they're mostly taking it in stride, having seen this coming since last year, and not being particularly surprised by it. This zeitgeist only exists in half of America right now.
buu700 1y ago
* Lower corporate income tax to the global minimum of 15% * Reshoring incentives * Regulatory reform to remove barriers to building things * Strict export controls around AI, robotics, and fusion * Massive subsides for production of useful humanoid robots and deployment of useful fusion power generation To the extent that tariffs are considered at all, it should only be if they're implemented with bipartisan support, selective with specific strategic goals in mind, gradually phased in, and explicitly long-term policy. Extreme tariffs without clear staying power are just disruptive for no good reason. They won't change business behavior; they'll just temporarily jack up costs, create an unnecessary customs backlog, and roadblock some commercial activities entirely. Even if implemented carefully, I would argue that tariffs in general are counterproductive in the long run. If a domestic industry isn't internationally competitive, the goal should be to fix that, not insulate it from competition.
nickpsecurity 1y ago
I'll add that the elites who pushed for earlier trade deals often did it specifically to get rich selling off America's domestic manufacturing and many jobs. Now, countries like China have them. So, Trump's policies should be seen as an attempt to reverse for Americans' benefit damaging policies from before which are still active. Now, whether that will do good or harm in the long term is anyone's guess. We already see companies investing more in American infrastructure, though.
analog31 1y ago
If an entrepreneur is smart enough to figure out how to land a rocket ship on its feet, that person can figure out how to manufacture printed circuit boards economically in the US.
- ben_w 1y ago
  One is a fight against nature; the other — to make it economic — is a fight against all the other highly skilled entrepreneurs not in the USA. Single player, multiplayer.

gmm1990 1y ago

Maybe start with smaller tariffs and go from there. But its not even worth defending current administration policies. Its either completely stupid or deliberately malevolent.

ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
On what basis are you making this recommendation? Your personal experience negotiating nation-state level agreements between two hegemons?
- BDPW 1y ago
  There is a deluge of experts in economics and other fields who clearly state this is not the right approach to bringing manufacturing to the US. Why wouldn't we trust experts in their fields?
  - ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
    What makes them experts in their fields? They have never done anything like this. Nor are historical analogues abundant.
    - gmm1990 1y ago
      That probably means its not a good strategy. Look at business activity, people are comparing it to early covid business conditions but its entirely self inflicted. You don't need to be an expert to see this is a failure. The assumption shouldn't be that Trump is acting in the interest of the average American or the American government.

thebruce87m 1y ago

> So, if not tariffs, then what should we use to solve this? I’d argue that tariffs that increase at a known rate are better than surprise large ones. Even a 1% increase a week every Monday for a year lets everyone’s supply chain adjust gradually. You’ll know within a few weeks how your product is affected and you’ll plan for the increase over the year. That’s probably still too fast though, since factories take time to build and the whole point is to encourage local manufacturing. Given the 4 year term trump could have gone for 3 years of increases with the hope that companies would start building factories and have them running by year 4.

grey-area 1y ago

Oh I don’t know, how about: Not imposing ludicrous tariffs based on flawed economics on the entire world at once? Not imposing tariffs with no warning on your closest allies and attempting to bully them into submission? Not imposing huge tariffs on some of the weakest nations you trade with (e.g. Laos, Vietnam). Not changing trade policy radically every few days and announcing it on social media? Not crashing the stock market, announcing a reverse on your social media platform, then boasting about how much money your billionaire friends made? Not calling one of your largest trading partners peasants and the then very clever, alternating between insults and praise like a two-bit mobster? This administration has made America a laughing stock; I don’t think many Americans realise just how much trust has been burned with allies since ‘liberation day’.

timewizard 1y ago
> based on flawed economics It's a simple formula based on balance of trade. > tariffs with no warning Some Hacker News types like to bury their head in the sand when inconvenient political news occurs but to say this happened without warning simply flags you as part of this group. > on some of the weakest nations you trade with (e.g. Laos, Vietnam). There is room for these countries to buy more American goods. These two countries also rebadge and ship out a lot of Chinese goods to evade tariffs. > changing trade policy radically every few days and announcing it on social media? So, do you want warnings, or not? > Not crashing the stock market, announcing a reverse on your social media platform, then boasting about how much money your billionaire friends made? If you didn't make any trades during this period how was your portfolio actually impacted? I would assume this is the majority of non billionaire investors. So the only ones who lost in the crash were the same billionaires. > calling one of your largest trading partners peasants and the then very clever, alternating between insults and praise like a two-bit mobster? Does that trading partner also act like a two bit mobster? If so, wouldn't this just be turnabout, or why is deference to hostile economic partners justified? > has made America a laughing stock That's an absurdly biased point of view. > I don’t think many Americans realise just how much trust has been burned with allies since ‘liberation day’. Not much. They didn't actually "trust" us before. I'm not sure how you'd measure that anyways. From my reading of foreign news they're mostly taking it in stride, having seen this coming since last year, and not being particularly surprised by it. This zeitgeist only exists in half of America right now.

buu700 1y ago

* Lower corporate income tax to the global minimum of 15% * Reshoring incentives * Regulatory reform to remove barriers to building things * Strict export controls around AI, robotics, and fusion * Massive subsides for production of useful humanoid robots and deployment of useful fusion power generation To the extent that tariffs are considered at all, it should only be if they're implemented with bipartisan support, selective with specific strategic goals in mind, gradually phased in, and explicitly long-term policy. Extreme tariffs without clear staying power are just disruptive for no good reason. They won't change business behavior; they'll just temporarily jack up costs, create an unnecessary customs backlog, and roadblock some commercial activities entirely. Even if implemented carefully, I would argue that tariffs in general are counterproductive in the long run. If a domestic industry isn't internationally competitive, the goal should be to fix that, not insulate it from competition.

nickpsecurity 1y ago

I'll add that the elites who pushed for earlier trade deals often did it specifically to get rich selling off America's domestic manufacturing and many jobs. Now, countries like China have them. So, Trump's policies should be seen as an attempt to reverse for Americans' benefit damaging policies from before which are still active. Now, whether that will do good or harm in the long term is anyone's guess. We already see companies investing more in American infrastructure, though.

analog31 1y ago

If an entrepreneur is smart enough to figure out how to land a rocket ship on its feet, that person can figure out how to manufacture printed circuit boards economically in the US.

ben_w 1y ago
One is a fight against nature; the other — to make it economic — is a fight against all the other highly skilled entrepreneurs not in the USA. Single player, multiplayer.