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Another note about fire trucks. There has been a large private equity roll up of fire truck manufacturers resulting in longer lead times and much higher prices

Another note about fire trucks. There has been a large private equity roll up of fire truck manufacturers resulting in longer lead times and much higher prices. [1] I was surprised when I specifically checked on Pierce that they are owned by Oshkosh and publicly traded. [2][3] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/17/us/fire-engines-shortage-private-equity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/17/us/fire-engines-shortage-... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierce_Manufacturing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierce_Manufacturing [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oshkosh_Corporation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oshkosh_Corporation

mindcrime 2y ago
It really is insane how much prices have increased. Now granted, I've been gone from the fire service for a while (20+ years now) but still. The last new engine I helped spec out back about 1999, cost less than $250,000. The one prior to that (about 1994) cost somewhere around $150,000 IIRC. Now departments are, from the scuttlebutt I hear, routinely paying more than $1,000,000 for an engine. Of course there are differences (engines are not fungible) but broadly speaking, the idea of any normal fire engine costing more than $1,000,000 just leaves me gob-smacked. Even $500,000 would seem outlandish to me. Also, yes, lead times have gotten nutty. I recall chatting with a battalion chief from Chapel Hill (NC) FD one day a couple of years ago, and he was telling me they had two new trucks on order (since delivered) that were going to wind up taking somewhere on the order of two years from order to delivery (I don't recall what the exact timeline wound up being, but I'm pretty sure it was not "earlier than expected"). I believe parts for repairs have been impacted in a similar fashion. No hard evidence on that point, but again, going from scuttlebutt and random conversations with friends who are still involved in the fire service.
- HPsquared 2y ago
  Normal cars also cost somewhere around 4x as much since then. It's inflation.
- basch 2y ago
  Inflation doubles every 30 years right? So 250k in 1999, is almost 500k in 2029. 500k shouldnt seem outlandish, if 250k wasnt. (I believe 1999-2025 is ~92% so 250=480.)
  - mindcrime 2y ago
    Inflation doubles every 30 years right? Is that the rule of thumb? I never knew. I guess you only really notice it big-time on large-ticket items that are purchased infrequently like fire trucks. Maybe a car or something, but I never buy brand new cars, so that's probably another reason I haven't been in tune with the degree of inflation.
    - SR2Z 2y ago
      2.5% inflation over 30 years gets you that number. Whether or not that's a good rule of thumb depends on how much you believe in putting economists and "neoliberals" in charge :)
      - euroderf 2y ago
        2.5% seems like a typical goal for monetary policy.
        SR2Z 2y ago
        Yes. My point is that the monetary policy that so far has worked out pretty well is gonna get thrown out the window when JPow leaves/is fired.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - Terr_ 2y ago
      The historical-average may not be worth internalizing now, given current events. Namely, a new Republican administration dropping chaos-bombs on the US economy and trying to seize direct control of the banking-infrastructure, which in turn would put Trump's little hands onto the levers for interest-rates.
- bklyn11201 2y ago
  Do you think the custom-build approach predominant in the U.S. (where engines are designed to specific local needs) is a key factor behind the steep price hikes and lengthy lead times, as opposed to the more standardized, off-the-shelf models that seem common in Europe? Do you support the custom-build approach?
  - mindcrime 2y ago
    is a key factor behind the steep price hikes and lengthy lead times I'm not sure I have an opinion on that. Again, I've been away from the fire service for a long time, and there's a lot of issues that I'm probably not fully up-to-date on. Do you support the custom-build approach? I have mixed feelings on that, and always have. On the one hand, I do believe that local needs vary a lot from place to place. For example, a rural farming community in Iowa probably genuinely needs things different from, say, San Francisco. But does each department really need to specify every little detail of how their truck is configured? I'm a big proponent of standardization and I sometimes think that people spec'ing fire trucks get too caught in believing "our case is special" when maybe it's not that special after all. So... uh, yeah. I hate to waffle, but it's hard to say for sure.
    - Symbiote 2y ago
      Judging by this article, in a country with fairly standard vehicles the lead time is at least 6 months. The price is lower though, £350,000. I saw recent prices from £250-650k while searching, depending what was purchased. https://www.northantsfire.gov.uk/2022/05/17/new-engines-0522/ https://www.northantsfire.gov.uk/2022/05/17/new-engines-0522...
  - tbrownaw 2y ago
    Consolidation leading to long lead times sounds like an efficiency / queuing theory thing. The closer capacity gets to demand, the longer it takes for any slight bumps to work their way out of the backlog.
  - potato3732842 2y ago
    They're not "custom" they're "pick your product, pick how you want it outfitted from these dropdown menus"
- kjkjadksj 2y ago
  Seems like when they buy a new engine now its never your bog standard diesel ladder truck. Its some hybrid or electric beast that looks like a hot wheels designer made it. I can’t imagine that is saving money over a simple diesel truck platform but I can understand why its worth paying that cost too as these old trucks are certainly unpleasant to anyone near them in noise, smell, or air quality.
floatrock 2y ago
jeez, from housing to red lobster to veternarians to handymen and HVAC businesses, now fire trucks. Is there anything left that private equity isn't consolidating and squeezing?
cyral 2y ago
Just saw a good video on this that was published a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvW-RtTRm8w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvW-RtTRm8w
schiffern 2y ago
> There has been a large private equity roll up How many times have we heard this story? How many times has it been a good outcome? Private equity is the "misaligned AI" we were warned about, only less powerful. If we can't even defeat private equity, what hope do we have? We shouldn't be war-gaming how we can defeat malicious AI. A more enlightening and realistic scenario is to war-game how we can defeat PE armed with AI.
Eddy_Viscosity2 1y ago
The old 'monopolize and screw' gambit of private equity. I've heard of the firms that specialize in identifying essential parts of military systems that have one or only a few possible manufacturers, then buying them up and increasing the price by several thousand percent (the DoD will buy them anyway). But this is the first I heard of the approach being applied for required municipal purchases. I guess nothing is safe.

mindcrime 2y ago

It really is insane how much prices have increased. Now granted, I've been gone from the fire service for a while (20+ years now) but still. The last new engine I helped spec out back about 1999, cost less than $250,000. The one prior to that (about 1994) cost somewhere around $150,000 IIRC. Now departments are, from the scuttlebutt I hear, routinely paying more than $1,000,000 for an engine. Of course there are differences (engines are not fungible) but broadly speaking, the idea of any normal fire engine costing more than $1,000,000 just leaves me gob-smacked. Even $500,000 would seem outlandish to me. Also, yes, lead times have gotten nutty. I recall chatting with a battalion chief from Chapel Hill (NC) FD one day a couple of years ago, and he was telling me they had two new trucks on order (since delivered) that were going to wind up taking somewhere on the order of two years from order to delivery (I don't recall what the exact timeline wound up being, but I'm pretty sure it was not "earlier than expected"). I believe parts for repairs have been impacted in a similar fashion. No hard evidence on that point, but again, going from scuttlebutt and random conversations with friends who are still involved in the fire service.

HPsquared 2y ago
Normal cars also cost somewhere around 4x as much since then. It's inflation.
basch 2y ago
Inflation doubles every 30 years right? So 250k in 1999, is almost 500k in 2029. 500k shouldnt seem outlandish, if 250k wasnt. (I believe 1999-2025 is ~92% so 250=480.)
- mindcrime 2y ago
  Inflation doubles every 30 years right? Is that the rule of thumb? I never knew. I guess you only really notice it big-time on large-ticket items that are purchased infrequently like fire trucks. Maybe a car or something, but I never buy brand new cars, so that's probably another reason I haven't been in tune with the degree of inflation.
  - SR2Z 2y ago
    2.5% inflation over 30 years gets you that number. Whether or not that's a good rule of thumb depends on how much you believe in putting economists and "neoliberals" in charge :)
    - euroderf 2y ago
      2.5% seems like a typical goal for monetary policy.
      - SR2Z 2y ago
        Yes. My point is that the monetary policy that so far has worked out pretty well is gonna get thrown out the window when JPow leaves/is fired.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
  - Terr_ 2y ago
    The historical-average may not be worth internalizing now, given current events. Namely, a new Republican administration dropping chaos-bombs on the US economy and trying to seize direct control of the banking-infrastructure, which in turn would put Trump's little hands onto the levers for interest-rates.
bklyn11201 2y ago
Do you think the custom-build approach predominant in the U.S. (where engines are designed to specific local needs) is a key factor behind the steep price hikes and lengthy lead times, as opposed to the more standardized, off-the-shelf models that seem common in Europe? Do you support the custom-build approach?
- mindcrime 2y ago
  is a key factor behind the steep price hikes and lengthy lead times I'm not sure I have an opinion on that. Again, I've been away from the fire service for a long time, and there's a lot of issues that I'm probably not fully up-to-date on. Do you support the custom-build approach? I have mixed feelings on that, and always have. On the one hand, I do believe that local needs vary a lot from place to place. For example, a rural farming community in Iowa probably genuinely needs things different from, say, San Francisco. But does each department really need to specify every little detail of how their truck is configured? I'm a big proponent of standardization and I sometimes think that people spec'ing fire trucks get too caught in believing "our case is special" when maybe it's not that special after all. So... uh, yeah. I hate to waffle, but it's hard to say for sure.
  - Symbiote 2y ago
    Judging by this article, in a country with fairly standard vehicles the lead time is at least 6 months. The price is lower though, £350,000. I saw recent prices from £250-650k while searching, depending what was purchased. https://www.northantsfire.gov.uk/2022/05/17/new-engines-0522/ https://www.northantsfire.gov.uk/2022/05/17/new-engines-0522...
- tbrownaw 2y ago
  Consolidation leading to long lead times sounds like an efficiency / queuing theory thing. The closer capacity gets to demand, the longer it takes for any slight bumps to work their way out of the backlog.
- potato3732842 2y ago
  They're not "custom" they're "pick your product, pick how you want it outfitted from these dropdown menus"
kjkjadksj 2y ago
Seems like when they buy a new engine now its never your bog standard diesel ladder truck. Its some hybrid or electric beast that looks like a hot wheels designer made it. I can’t imagine that is saving money over a simple diesel truck platform but I can understand why its worth paying that cost too as these old trucks are certainly unpleasant to anyone near them in noise, smell, or air quality.

floatrock 2y ago

jeez, from housing to red lobster to veternarians to handymen and HVAC businesses, now fire trucks. Is there anything left that private equity isn't consolidating and squeezing?

cyral 2y ago

Just saw a good video on this that was published a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvW-RtTRm8w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvW-RtTRm8w

schiffern 2y ago

> There has been a large private equity roll up How many times have we heard this story? How many times has it been a good outcome? Private equity is the "misaligned AI" we were warned about, only less powerful. If we can't even defeat private equity, what hope do we have? We shouldn't be war-gaming how we can defeat malicious AI. A more enlightening and realistic scenario is to war-game how we can defeat PE armed with AI.

Eddy_Viscosity2 1y ago

The old 'monopolize and screw' gambit of private equity. I've heard of the firms that specialize in identifying essential parts of military systems that have one or only a few possible manufacturers, then buying them up and increasing the price by several thousand percent (the DoD will buy them anyway). But this is the first I heard of the approach being applied for required municipal purchases. I guess nothing is safe.