Whether or not many people have estimated the odds is not what defines what a bet is, it's just something that people placing a bet are going to look at. Deriv

Whether or not many people have estimated the odds is not what defines what a bet is, it's just something that people placing a bet are going to look at. Derivatives exchanges are handled separately from betting because they have other tangible benefits the to financial marketplace. I'm not sure I buy the pitch that prediction markets should fall into the same carveout at face value, but why has nothing to do with how many stats are run.