Uncertainty is a massive problem and may itself bring on a recession more than any tariffs. It's a huge factor in the oil market crash that's currently going on

Uncertainty is a massive problem and may itself bring on a recession more than any tariffs. It's a huge factor in the oil market crash that's currently going on. I've seen one oil expert say that Obama was the best president for the oil industry because he did... nothing. There were no kneejerk policy changes on a weekly basis. And anything requiring large capital investments thrives on certainty. As for Treasury yields spiking, that was no accident. As part of China's (justified) retaliation to the tariffs, they started selling off 10 year Treasuries intentaionlly to spike the rates because that's one thing the Trump administration seemed to care about. I still don't know what the endgame is/was here. Some seem to think devaluing the dollar was the goal to boost exports but also to effectively devalue US soverieng debt. There's precedent for this eg FDR's sovereign devaluation of the dollar and Reagan's Plaza Accord.