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At this point, I do wonder if long-dated (2-3 months) American-style Puts are a good idea. The weirdness of this administration has created a lot of volatility
by tombert 2y ago
At this point, I do wonder if long-dated (2-3 months) American-style Puts are a good idea.
The weirdness of this administration has created a lot of volatility. With American-style options you are allowed to exercise early, so if you think there's going to be a ton of ups and downs in the next few months, I wonder if this could be lucrative.
I might try this just as an experiment with one of the cheaper options.
- fortran77 2y agoThe only way to know is to wait 3 months and see.
- hervature 2y agoExercising early only makes sense in some pathological examples that do occur but practically never happen. In general, very loosely, a put is worth something for the hedge plus the amount you could get for exercising it right now. Thus, if you want to exercise it right now, you just sell it and get the hedge premium. Also, the current VIX is the same as January of 2020. If you believe the current state of the world is less certain than the outbreak of a global pandemic, I have some options to sell you.
- tombert 2y agoYeah, misspoke, I meant selling the option, not exercising. > Also, the current VIX is the same as January of 2020. If you believe the current state of the world is less certain than the outbreak of a global pandemic, I have some options to sell you. I don't know if it's more volatile, BUT it it has shot way up since yesterday, and it doesn't seem too weird to think that it will go down to the numbers we had yesterday.
- d0odk 2y agoYou can just sell the options. You don't need to exercise.
- tombert 2y agoYeah, that's actually what I meant, sell the option. I misspoke.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Aperocky 2y agoGiven my exposure I've loaded up with long puts right after this news. Puts are a necessary hedge now for your 401ks or stock grants.
- keeganpoppen 2y agoi doubt you're the first person to think of this. not to be an "it's priced in" guy, but... something to consider