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Too late for everyone who spent massively on flying in stock ahead of the tariff deadline. Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay ma
by fancyfredbot 2y ago
Too late for everyone who spent massively on flying in stock ahead of the tariff deadline. Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls. Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty. Too late for those who lost sales while they figured out pricing. Too early for the people fundraising to build US manufacturing capabilities. What a mess.
- skyyler 2y agoIt's almost like the whole point is just to enable insider trading on a scale we've never seen before.
- jstummbillig 2y agoIs there any reliable instrument to find out? This seems so obvious, given the only alternative option seems to be believing they are completely insane.
- alabastervlog 2y agoThe independent IGs installed after all Nixon's criming might be in a good position to check up on that. But he illegally (without required notice period and specific reason provided to Congress) fired them right at the beginning of his term.
- HumblyTossed 2y agoI mean it's all right there out in the open. He fired anyone who could hold him accountable and now he is openly manipulating the markets.
- layer8 2y agoThe alternative you mention is more likely, given all we know. On the other hand, why not both.
- pstuart 2y agoAh, there's the rub. Even with a smoking gun there's no political will to do anything about it. > are completely insane More likely detached from reality, laser focused on personal gain, and punishing perceived enemies.
- fancyfredbot 2y agoYou could look at https://www.capitoltrades.com/ https://www.capitoltrades.com/ in a few days. Of course you'd probably expect the average senator/congressional representative to be smart enough not to go insider trading on their own monitored account...
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- rqtwteye 2y agoAnybody who could investigate probably got fired. After the pardons of Blagojevich and the Nikola guy it’s pretty clear that scamming is ok now.
- paganel 2y agoTIL that the Nikola guy got pardoned.
- nialv7 2y agoRemember that "debunked" rumor tweet on Monday that created a market rollercoaster ride? The one that predicted exactly this? What the hell is even going on
- JackYoustra 2y agoDoesn't make much sense, if you're insider trading you profit more if you move one stock a lotlotlot vs all the stocks merely a lot.
- skyyler 2y agoLike I said, on a scale we've never seen before.
- jeffbee 2y agoDerivatives had huge moves based on these announcements. Out-of-the money SPX E-mini puts went up 10x after tariffs were announced. Near-the-money E-mini calls doubled after today's announcements. These are zero-risk insider strategies.
- acdha 2y agoBuy the NASDAQ at 1:17PM. Sell at 2PM. You’ve just made 10% without doing any work. If you’re doing any kind of leveraged play, you can get even higher returns.
- JackYoustra 1y agomy point is that's the exact same if its a random microcap, just massively magnified. The president can easily cause triple digit swings. Doing a broad market movement is inefficient from this point of view.
- 2y ago
- dralley 2y agohttps://x.com/Ike_Saul/status/1910028885460148427 https://x.com/Ike_Saul/status/1910028885460148427
- cmurf 2y agohttps://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmfm5ycbjk2x https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmf... "Alright, I think people knew of the tariff pause and traded it beforehand ... "
- pixelesque 2y agohttps://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmfm5ycbjk2x https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmf... Seems to show people knew it was going to happen a few minutes before he posted.
- 9283409232 2y agoBiggest pump and dump ever.
- xenospn 2y agoIt’s now called just “trading”.
- bamboozled 2y agoI believe that’s what is going on as well.
- mistrial9 2y ago[flagged]
- sethops1 2y agoLiterally anyone with a 401k is an investor.
- scarface_74 2y agoIf you have a 401K heavily invested in stocks, you should be far enough away from retirement that short term swings don’t matter.
- JKCalhoun 2y agoNew retirees "should" have 35% or 45% in stocks (using the 100 or 110 rule).
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- cjbgkagh 2y agoThere is also a bond market collapse for those people not invested in stocks precisely because they're close to retirement. I think that was the real reasons that tariff effects were postponed, the increase in interests in the bond markets would have been too fatal too quickly.
- harikb 2y agoI think GP remark was just a funny take on 'think of the children!' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_of_the_children https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_of_the_children
- SilasX 2y agoFor generous definitions of "funny", maybe.
- sleepyguy 2y agoMarkets are celebrating. How long before they realize that the China tariffs will destroy the profits of companies like Walmart, Apple, Dollar Store, Harbor Freight, etc, and a 10% tax hike on consumers across the board on all other imports? We are still headed for a recession, and the destruction from the greatest deal maker who ever lived will be lasting. Let's not forget everything else he's doing because there is nothing good in the plan.
- louthy 2y agoIt’s clear the China tariffs (in their current form) won’t last the week.
- MammaMia2025 2y agounless President Xi calls him tomorrow invites to Beijing and turns out to be "great guy". Followed by tariffs for China lowered to 20%.
- arandomusername 1y agoOh no, not my Apple! The hike will not be 10% on consumers. In most cases the seller will eat a good chunk of the cost otherwise it won't sell.
- acdha 1y agoNot many companies have the margins to shrug off 10%, and if there isn’t a cheap domestic alternative everyone in the market will be raising prices. Take coffee, tea, or chocolate: Americans buy a ton of those, there’s almost no domestic production, and most of the market lives on tight margins. Trump’s tax hike means that the average consumer’s choices devolve to paying more or buying less.
- arandomusername 1y agoNestle has a profit margin of ~15%. If they raise prices by 10%, consumers will buy significantly less. There's a sweetspot somewhere for max profit, it's not 10% and probably not 0% either. Coffee and tea are very cheap when you buy from a retailer and make it yourself, 10% is nothing anyway. Stuff like starbucks have crazy profit margings. Chocolate is a delicacy that shouldn't be consumed in large quantities anyway. That shit should have a 200% tax.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- amirhirsch 2y agoNo one will make long-term investments in US manufacturing capabilities in response to policy that will revert in 4 years.
- arrrg 2y agoIt’s worse than that. Everything leading up to this and this reversion right now is a perfect demonstration that the current US administration cannot be trusted and behaves in irrational ways. You cannot expect consistency and enduring policies. It’s all fickle and capricious. How are you supposed to do any planning with this? This is all so obviously dumb and I’m frankly astounded by so many people (especially here on HN) playing devils advocate or, I don’t know, honestly believing that this all makes sense. Even if you agree with the stated (also somewhat incoherent, by the way) goals why do you think this implementation can achieve any of that?
- nilkn 2y agoI believe the point is power, and from that lens everything makes perfect sense. Trump is exercising available levers of global influence -- for good or for bad -- in a way that hasn't occurred since Hitler initiated World War II. Tariffs are appealing to him because they are incredibly forceful blunt instruments over which he alone has almost complete control. They give him immense, immediate influence over the entire world. What we're seeing is that the US President today, if the full capacities of that office are pushed as far as possible without violence, is arguably one of (if not the) most powerful human beings ever. Beyond this, Trump has said that one of his greatest weapons is uncertainty. He wants to be feared. Having people genuinely afraid of you is the next step of power that he is already flirting with by posting videos of people being blown up in warfare on social media.
- MammaMia2025 2y agoAnd what will he do when China and rest of the world tired of his untreated Narcissistic Personality Disorder will start selling US debt, like $trillions in bonds in say less than a week? I bet you finally someone broke the secret to him today, so he reverted the policy.
- grandempire 2y agoOh no. Stock isn’t risk free automatic gains? I know that with RSUs etc people treat it that way. But no the risk is real.
- mikeocool 2y agoThe US President intentionally crashing the market wasn't part of the risk profile until recently.
- grandempire 2y agoI wouldn’t pretend things that are outside my circle of influence are.
- BuckRogers 2y ago[flagged]
- doctorwho42 2y agoAnd everything is still inflating in cost.
- grandempire 2y agoSource?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- listenallyall 2y ago> Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls Yea, I want my president looking out for financial vultures leveraged to the hilt
- brundolf 2y agoAnd who knows where his whims will go tomorrow
- mschuster91 2y ago> Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls. That's the true aim behind all of this constant course shifting. The ultra rich, those who have large amounts of liquid assets or outright cash, can make bank at the moment... buy the dip. Even if the markets dip another 20%, they'll rebound soon enough.
- dtquad 2y ago>Too early for the people fundraising to build US manufacturing capabilities. It's a good idea to hedge against future trade uncertainties. After COVID some Danish and German companies began looking for non-Chinese alternatives for electronics manufacturing. The only area where China is the absolute better alternative is PCB manufacturing without mounting chips/components. The Danish and German companies get tens of thousands of these bare PCBs from China. The chips/components are from Taiwan, South Korea, the US, Italy, and Germany and can be cost effectively mounted in Denmark and Germany.
- KennyBlanken 2y agoNot really sure why you left out the tens of thousands of people who were almost immediately laid off when companies and their suppliers idled factories? In the automotive sector alone - GM, Ford, and Stellantis all flipped the master breaker to "off" on a number of plants and sent everyone packing. That hire-back will not be instant. People are going to miss payments for rent/mortgage, car loans, utility bills, etc. Let's not forget that many companies hit the brakes, hard, on exporting goods to the US - so there's going to be the shipping equivalent of those traffic "waves" because two hours ago someone on the highway panic-braked
- fancyfredbot 2y agoIn my defence I mentioned it was "Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty" which I think covers these auto workers? Still I'm sure I unintentionally missed many examples of people who've been negatively affected by this saga. I didn't mean anything by that, it's just ignorance or lack of thought on my part.