7 ms·

Except that that future of a big powerful China doesn't exist. Their birth-rate is 1. Game-over.

by bboygravity 1y ago

Izikiel43 1y ago
The USA is also below replacement levels.
- philg_jr 1y ago
  Not with immigration.
  - _t9ow 1y ago
    Immigration will take a nosedive under Trump.
  - peterfirefly 1y ago
    That's not necessarily a good thing. Do the New Americans want the same things as the pre-existing ones? Are they as capable? Not just "in a few generations" but here and now? Are they even likely to be as capable "in a few generations"? If the statistics aren't very wrong, it doesn't seem like a solution.
    - marxplank 1y ago
      Indian Americans make the most money in America, I’m sure immigrants can be capable
      - horns4lyfe 1y ago
        “Making the most money” isn’t the same as building a society people want to live in
        slt2021 1y ago
        by all statistics, it is Americans that make the life in the USA insufferable: corrupt politicians, oligarchs, lobbyists, party leaders, and criminals (the ones that sell drugs and shoot people). go to any county/state jail and try to find a single H-1B visa holder there... its all home grown foundational Americans, raised on McDonalds and Coke
  - ezst 1y ago
    Don't worry, Republicans are hard at work making the USA a pariah state and turning away the educated migrants who've been behind most of the innovation and research of past decades.
    - vixen99 1y ago
      What, non-migrant Americans are not up to it?
      - unethical_ban 1y ago
        The US has benefited quite a bit by being a magnet for some of the most educated and driven people from around the world. This is not a controversial take. Now, legal resident noncitizens are being deported for having political views that oppose the ruling executive party. This is not normal in the US.
  - slt2021 1y ago
    Immigration is a double edge sword. Sure, it brings highly educated people on the top end, but also less educated at the bottom curve. and on balance it changes demographics dramatically, that also shapes US policy in the future. It will be harder for USA to continue to be bloody warmongering machine with Military industrial complex dictating the policy and bombing countries and blowing up civilians around the world.
  - spaceman_2020 1y ago
    Immigration isn’t risk free You get your birth rates up, but you also risk alienating your native born population and electing far right morons into office Jury’s out on whether a tfr of 1.0 of native born people is better than a tfr of 1.4 with immigrants
- bboygravity 1y ago
  US birthrate is 1.6, really bad, but by far less disasterous and permanent as China's 1.
  - throwaway2037 1y ago
    I Googled: china fertility rate 2024 A couple of reliable sources say: 1.7 births per woman Where did you get 1?
    - boelboel 1y ago
      No credible source says 1.7, the source that says this must be based on some kinda UN projection of 2010. Real TFR is probably around 1.0, in some parts of china it's below 0.7 (in the northeast it's around this number, in Macao it's 0.4). A lot of other countries are completely fucked as well and google pushes up UN projections from years ago (Like colombia UN projects the fertility rate to be higher in 2100 than it is according to the official numbers right now).
missedthecue 1y ago
China will probably be the only country that solves this.
- boznz 1y ago
  ..Any country can solve it, just incentivise families. Simple things like ensuring young people have access to affordable housing and daycare. If I was at the start of my career ladder in a major urban area now, having a family would be close to the bottom of my priority list. Its not rocket science.
  - jraby3 1y ago
    This isn't true and has been tried in the Nordic countries. This is an outstanding article on the subject: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/03/03/the-population-implosion?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/03/03/the-population...
  - WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
    > .Any country can solve it, just incentivise families. In the US, parenting time is up 20-fold, from a few hours per week to 24/7 adulting. Companion to that is that free-range land has shrunk from many sq/mi to a few sq/yds. Car culture and trespassing culture has eliminated the irreplaceable environments where adult-free, peer time nurtured mental health and abilities. As near as I can tell, parenting and childhood is irreparably broken in the US. We certainly seem incapable of recalling what sustainable parenting once looked like. On rare occasion someone will recall that kids once roamed all over. Maybe that gets connected to less mental health issues. Either way it's all forgotten moments later.
    - fragmede 1y ago
      I agree it's broken, just in the other direction. Just stick an ipad in front of the kid and ignore it for hours
      - 1y ago

Except that that future of a big powerful China doesn't exist. Their birth-rate is 1. Game-over.

Izikiel43 1y ago

The USA is also below replacement levels.

philg_jr 1y ago
Not with immigration.
- _t9ow 1y ago
  Immigration will take a nosedive under Trump.
- peterfirefly 1y ago
  That's not necessarily a good thing. Do the New Americans want the same things as the pre-existing ones? Are they as capable? Not just "in a few generations" but here and now? Are they even likely to be as capable "in a few generations"? If the statistics aren't very wrong, it doesn't seem like a solution.
  - marxplank 1y ago
    Indian Americans make the most money in America, I’m sure immigrants can be capable
    - horns4lyfe 1y ago
      “Making the most money” isn’t the same as building a society people want to live in
      - slt2021 1y ago
        by all statistics, it is Americans that make the life in the USA insufferable: corrupt politicians, oligarchs, lobbyists, party leaders, and criminals (the ones that sell drugs and shoot people). go to any county/state jail and try to find a single H-1B visa holder there... its all home grown foundational Americans, raised on McDonalds and Coke
- ezst 1y ago
  Don't worry, Republicans are hard at work making the USA a pariah state and turning away the educated migrants who've been behind most of the innovation and research of past decades.
  - vixen99 1y ago
    What, non-migrant Americans are not up to it?
    - unethical_ban 1y ago
      The US has benefited quite a bit by being a magnet for some of the most educated and driven people from around the world. This is not a controversial take. Now, legal resident noncitizens are being deported for having political views that oppose the ruling executive party. This is not normal in the US.
- slt2021 1y ago
  Immigration is a double edge sword. Sure, it brings highly educated people on the top end, but also less educated at the bottom curve. and on balance it changes demographics dramatically, that also shapes US policy in the future. It will be harder for USA to continue to be bloody warmongering machine with Military industrial complex dictating the policy and bombing countries and blowing up civilians around the world.
- spaceman_2020 1y ago
  Immigration isn’t risk free You get your birth rates up, but you also risk alienating your native born population and electing far right morons into office Jury’s out on whether a tfr of 1.0 of native born people is better than a tfr of 1.4 with immigrants
bboygravity 1y ago
US birthrate is 1.6, really bad, but by far less disasterous and permanent as China's 1.
- throwaway2037 1y ago
  I Googled: china fertility rate 2024 A couple of reliable sources say: 1.7 births per woman Where did you get 1?
  - boelboel 1y ago
    No credible source says 1.7, the source that says this must be based on some kinda UN projection of 2010. Real TFR is probably around 1.0, in some parts of china it's below 0.7 (in the northeast it's around this number, in Macao it's 0.4). A lot of other countries are completely fucked as well and google pushes up UN projections from years ago (Like colombia UN projects the fertility rate to be higher in 2100 than it is according to the official numbers right now).

missedthecue 1y ago

China will probably be the only country that solves this.

boznz 1y ago
..Any country can solve it, just incentivise families. Simple things like ensuring young people have access to affordable housing and daycare. If I was at the start of my career ladder in a major urban area now, having a family would be close to the bottom of my priority list. Its not rocket science.
- jraby3 1y ago
  This isn't true and has been tried in the Nordic countries. This is an outstanding article on the subject: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/03/03/the-population-implosion?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/03/03/the-population...
- WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
  > .Any country can solve it, just incentivise families. In the US, parenting time is up 20-fold, from a few hours per week to 24/7 adulting. Companion to that is that free-range land has shrunk from many sq/mi to a few sq/yds. Car culture and trespassing culture has eliminated the irreplaceable environments where adult-free, peer time nurtured mental health and abilities. As near as I can tell, parenting and childhood is irreparably broken in the US. We certainly seem incapable of recalling what sustainable parenting once looked like. On rare occasion someone will recall that kids once roamed all over. Maybe that gets connected to less mental health issues. Either way it's all forgotten moments later.
  - fragmede 1y ago
    I agree it's broken, just in the other direction. Just stick an ipad in front of the kid and ignore it for hours
    - 1y ago