6 ms·

Lots of stocks are up 10-15% instantly after this announcement. Curious if we'll get reports of suspicious options volume capitalizing on this information.

NooneAtAll3 2y ago
why do people still trust stock markets if manipulating them is that easy?
- NewJazz 2y ago
  As easy as winning the presidency and having enough loyalty within your base to say "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters." then win reelection just 8 years later? https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-fifth-avenue-comment/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-fifth-avenue-...
- hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
  Your question presupposes something I think that most people do not believe.
- taeric 2y ago
  To be clear, here, this form of "manipulation" is kind of impossible to really deal with? Or do you have something in mind that should be able to more smoothly work with this?
  - kevin_thibedeau 2y ago
    SEC has reversed suspicious trades in the past.
    - taeric 2y ago
      From the president of the united states? Especially knowing that controlling tariffs and such are easily argued to be in his core powers, in the current setting, what authority would they possibly have to do something on this?
      - mdhen 2y ago
        they can reverse the options trades that look like they had insider info. This is a thing that the SEC does.
        taeric 2y ago
        But they would have to prove insider info? Which would require discovery against communications to/from the president. Which you know they would argue against. So, let me rephrase, do you think it is likely that they would do anything?
      - zerd 2y ago
        > easily argued to be in his core powers I'd say arguably. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration#Legality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_ad...
        taeric 2y ago
        Any action they are taking around deciding whether or not there is a national security interest in managing tariffs is easily covered by everyone's understanding of what is in the presidential duties. As such, it is fully off limits for any review, per last year's immunity ruling. No? Now, congress can take away that delegation. They could also cancel any declarations. But actions taken by the admin in pursuing this will almost certainly be seen as core duties by the supreme court. As such, I don't see any real opening for review in this?
- ta1243 2y ago
  Traditionally US stockmarkets are not that easily manipulated. This type of blatent grift and insider trading was for banana republics, and that's why stock markets in those places aren't serious.
- outer_web 2y ago
  I don't think they do and you have to be president or Elon to do it.
- mschild 2y ago
  Because even with crises, over the long term the only direction is up. Its probably not so much that people trust it but either you invest broadly (index funds) and trust long historical data that the likely direction is up or you think you have more information than other people and can beat the market.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    > over the long term the only direction is up. Only if you look at American stock market data. And that's extreme cherry-picking, because the American stock market is by far the best performing over the last century. What are the chances the American stock market will be the best performing next century?
    - torlok 2y ago
      The US stock market is exceptional, but that doesn't mean other markets don't grow. The global expected returns are around 4% annually.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago
        The standard claim is that "even if you bought at the absolute worst time, if you held for 10 years you would have been positive after inflation". This statement is true for the US stock market, but not true for many other stock markets.
        torlok 2y ago
        There's "lost decade" periods in the US market as well, that's why you shouldn't invest in a single market, and should apply unit cost averaging instead of dumping all your money at once.
  - MammaMia2025 2y ago
    In nominal terms it always goes up. In real terms, like priced in gold, DJIA is cheaper today than in 1929. (13 ounces of gold today vs. 14 ounces of gold in 1929).
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- JKCalhoun 2y ago
  Because everything other investment is worse?
- BJones12 2y ago
  Because you don't have to play this game. If you buy and hold long term you could ignore every news article this year and you'd be fine.
- bluGill 2y ago
  I trust the stock market only after at least 5 years have passed, preferably 10. Short term (less than that) the stock market has always been about popularity, but long term the most profitable companies always rise to the top.
dboreham 2y ago
Well I bought this morning (not a large trade), based not on insider information but on the obvious outcome. Also the dynamic signal that Trump spent 2h spewing utter nonsense at a donor dinner last night, but the market didn't go down this morning. Signaling that something was in the works one way or another. Edit: best to note that Trump is still doing plenty to destroy the US economy, so be careful out there.
- outer_web 2y ago
  Yesterday the indexes started up 3-4% and finished down at least as much. Risky move but congrats.
- archagon 2y ago
  Frankly, everything is “obvious” in retrospect. I assumed Trump would triple down regardless of the consequences. My only conclusion is that the fluctuations of the market are going to be completely arbitrary during this administration.
matteoraso 2y ago
Wouldn't be too suspicious, since Trump people told people to buy into the stock market before announcing this. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114308272725981913 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1143082727259...
- vkou 2y ago
  Do you really think he didn't tell his friends to buy options an hour before the tweet?
  - JAM1971 2y ago
    Do you have any evidence that he did?
    - zerd 2y ago
      https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmfm5ycbjk2x https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmf...
  - conductr 2y ago
    Of course not, he told them to trust/act on his tweets. That way they are acting on public info
Vivtek 2y ago
Who would report it?

NooneAtAll3 2y ago

why do people still trust stock markets if manipulating them is that easy?

NewJazz 2y ago
As easy as winning the presidency and having enough loyalty within your base to say "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters." then win reelection just 8 years later? https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-fifth-avenue-comment/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-fifth-avenue-...
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
Your question presupposes something I think that most people do not believe.
taeric 2y ago
To be clear, here, this form of "manipulation" is kind of impossible to really deal with? Or do you have something in mind that should be able to more smoothly work with this?
- kevin_thibedeau 2y ago
  SEC has reversed suspicious trades in the past.
  - taeric 2y ago
    From the president of the united states? Especially knowing that controlling tariffs and such are easily argued to be in his core powers, in the current setting, what authority would they possibly have to do something on this?
    - mdhen 2y ago
      they can reverse the options trades that look like they had insider info. This is a thing that the SEC does.
      - taeric 2y ago
        But they would have to prove insider info? Which would require discovery against communications to/from the president. Which you know they would argue against. So, let me rephrase, do you think it is likely that they would do anything?
    - zerd 2y ago
      > easily argued to be in his core powers I'd say arguably. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration#Legality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_ad...
      - taeric 2y ago
        Any action they are taking around deciding whether or not there is a national security interest in managing tariffs is easily covered by everyone's understanding of what is in the presidential duties. As such, it is fully off limits for any review, per last year's immunity ruling. No? Now, congress can take away that delegation. They could also cancel any declarations. But actions taken by the admin in pursuing this will almost certainly be seen as core duties by the supreme court. As such, I don't see any real opening for review in this?
ta1243 2y ago
Traditionally US stockmarkets are not that easily manipulated. This type of blatent grift and insider trading was for banana republics, and that's why stock markets in those places aren't serious.
outer_web 2y ago
I don't think they do and you have to be president or Elon to do it.
mschild 2y ago
Because even with crises, over the long term the only direction is up. Its probably not so much that people trust it but either you invest broadly (index funds) and trust long historical data that the likely direction is up or you think you have more information than other people and can beat the market.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  > over the long term the only direction is up. Only if you look at American stock market data. And that's extreme cherry-picking, because the American stock market is by far the best performing over the last century. What are the chances the American stock market will be the best performing next century?
  - torlok 2y ago
    The US stock market is exceptional, but that doesn't mean other markets don't grow. The global expected returns are around 4% annually.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      The standard claim is that "even if you bought at the absolute worst time, if you held for 10 years you would have been positive after inflation". This statement is true for the US stock market, but not true for many other stock markets.
      - torlok 2y ago
        There's "lost decade" periods in the US market as well, that's why you shouldn't invest in a single market, and should apply unit cost averaging instead of dumping all your money at once.
- MammaMia2025 2y ago
  In nominal terms it always goes up. In real terms, like priced in gold, DJIA is cheaper today than in 1929. (13 ounces of gold today vs. 14 ounces of gold in 1929).
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
JKCalhoun 2y ago
Because everything other investment is worse?
BJones12 2y ago
Because you don't have to play this game. If you buy and hold long term you could ignore every news article this year and you'd be fine.
bluGill 2y ago
I trust the stock market only after at least 5 years have passed, preferably 10. Short term (less than that) the stock market has always been about popularity, but long term the most profitable companies always rise to the top.

dboreham 2y ago

Well I bought this morning (not a large trade), based not on insider information but on the obvious outcome. Also the dynamic signal that Trump spent 2h spewing utter nonsense at a donor dinner last night, but the market didn't go down this morning. Signaling that something was in the works one way or another. Edit: best to note that Trump is still doing plenty to destroy the US economy, so be careful out there.

outer_web 2y ago
Yesterday the indexes started up 3-4% and finished down at least as much. Risky move but congrats.
archagon 2y ago
Frankly, everything is “obvious” in retrospect. I assumed Trump would triple down regardless of the consequences. My only conclusion is that the fluctuations of the market are going to be completely arbitrary during this administration.

matteoraso 2y ago

Wouldn't be too suspicious, since Trump people told people to buy into the stock market before announcing this. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114308272725981913 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1143082727259...

vkou 2y ago
Do you really think he didn't tell his friends to buy options an hour before the tweet?
- JAM1971 2y ago
  Do you have any evidence that he did?
  - zerd 2y ago
    https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmfm5ycbjk2x https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmf...
- conductr 2y ago
  Of course not, he told them to trust/act on his tweets. That way they are acting on public info

Vivtek 2y ago

Who would report it?