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Imagine if China decided to invade Taiwan like they've been threatening to do for a while. They would instantly cut off all exports to the US, because that's th

Imagine if China decided to invade Taiwan like they've been threatening to do for a while. They would instantly cut off all exports to the US, because that's the smart thing to do. They would probably blockade Japan and other countries as well to keep them from exporting to the US, because that's the smart thing to do. Now since our supply chains were greatly disrupted (remember COVID?) we can only go to war with the equipment we have and will struggle to produce any more equipment in a short period of time. No more uniforms, no more tanks, no more drones, no more missiles, no more artillery shells, no more medicine, etc, because all the materials for those things are largely sourced from Asia, which would now under a blockade.

dboreham 2y ago
Well needless to say all this has been realized about 2000 years ago and there are legions of smart people ensuring that it isn't a problem. Heck I used to ride the light rail in Sunnyvale past an old fab that had notices on the doors saying it was owned by the US Navy.
- absolutelastone 2y ago
  I thought those smart people were the ones saying our military supply chain is dependent on China.
tharmas 2y ago
I think the point being made is that under Trump's plan (repatriate production) China is MORE likely to invade Taiwan than before. Under the current situation China is LESS likely to invade Taiwan BECAUSE they rely on selling stuff to the USA. Once that reliance is gone, there are less negative consequences for China if they choose to invade Taiwan.
- Clubber 2y ago
  >Under the current situation China is LESS likely to invade Taiwan BECAUSE they rely on selling stuff to the USA. I mean the took over Hong Kong already. I think that is wishful thinking.
  - grayhatter 2y ago
    Wasn't it that they installed sympathetic politicians, which then led to the UK willingly turning over control (despite the local protests). Calling that a takeover seems misleading to me. Ahh somewhat willingly, the lease to the land expired. So seemingly no choice was given.
    - Clubber 2y ago
      They broke the agreement for the handover by about 25 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems
- bitsage 2y ago
  China could also use the US’ dependence on it as leverage to discourage them from intervening in Taiwan. We just saw this play out with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We routinely see Turkey threaten the EU with migrants over the bloc’s reliance on Turkey. We also saw Azerbaijan make a move for Artsakh knowing the EU needed their gas following the invasion of Ukraine. I believe China would prefer being able to extort the US rather than face the possibility of fighting an unbowed US.
teachrdan 2y ago
> Imagine if China decided to invade Taiwan like they've been threatening to do for a while. They would instantly cut off all exports to the US, because that's the smart thing to do. I think what you're getting at is that China would have more leverage over the US if they attacked (attempted to invade) Taiwan, which they could use to make it more difficult for the US to protect Taiwan. In that case they could do things like block some or all exports to the US until we, say, stopped escorting cargo ships in and out of Taiwan. But the notion they would "instantly cut off all exports to the US" is nonsense. There's no reason that's somehow a no-brainer post invasion.
- Clubber 2y ago
  >In that case they could do things like block some or all exports to the US until we, say, stopped escorting cargo ships in and out of Taiwan. But the notion they would "instantly cut off all exports to the US" is nonsense. There's no reason that's somehow a no-brainer post invasion. You think they would supply their enemy? Biden said he would protect Taiwan pretty emphatically. I assume Trump would be advised of the same.
grayhatter 2y ago
> we can only go to war with the equipment we have and will struggle to produce any more equipment in a short period of time. No more uniforms, no more tanks, no more drones, no more missiles, no more artillery shells, no more medicine, etc, because all the materials for those things are largely sourced from Asia, which would now under a blockade. So if instead all of these weren't sourced from exclusively Asia, and were sourced from many different countries, including domestically, there wouldn't be a problem? Also, is your assertion really that US military would be at a near term disadvantage, if exports from Asia stopped? That's a wild take. > They would probably blockade Japan and other countries as well to keep them from exporting to the US, because that's the smart thing to do You're the first person to try to convince me that it would be smart for China to start a world war with the US and it's allies over Taiwan. Needless to say, I disagree that it would be smart, I disagree that china would be willing and likely to do it, and disagree they could do it if they actually tried.

dboreham 2y ago

Well needless to say all this has been realized about 2000 years ago and there are legions of smart people ensuring that it isn't a problem. Heck I used to ride the light rail in Sunnyvale past an old fab that had notices on the doors saying it was owned by the US Navy.

absolutelastone 2y ago
I thought those smart people were the ones saying our military supply chain is dependent on China.

tharmas 2y ago

I think the point being made is that under Trump's plan (repatriate production) China is MORE likely to invade Taiwan than before. Under the current situation China is LESS likely to invade Taiwan BECAUSE they rely on selling stuff to the USA. Once that reliance is gone, there are less negative consequences for China if they choose to invade Taiwan.

Clubber 2y ago
>Under the current situation China is LESS likely to invade Taiwan BECAUSE they rely on selling stuff to the USA. I mean the took over Hong Kong already. I think that is wishful thinking.
- grayhatter 2y ago
  Wasn't it that they installed sympathetic politicians, which then led to the UK willingly turning over control (despite the local protests). Calling that a takeover seems misleading to me. Ahh somewhat willingly, the lease to the land expired. So seemingly no choice was given.
  - Clubber 2y ago
    They broke the agreement for the handover by about 25 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems
bitsage 2y ago
China could also use the US’ dependence on it as leverage to discourage them from intervening in Taiwan. We just saw this play out with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We routinely see Turkey threaten the EU with migrants over the bloc’s reliance on Turkey. We also saw Azerbaijan make a move for Artsakh knowing the EU needed their gas following the invasion of Ukraine. I believe China would prefer being able to extort the US rather than face the possibility of fighting an unbowed US.

teachrdan 2y ago

> Imagine if China decided to invade Taiwan like they've been threatening to do for a while. They would instantly cut off all exports to the US, because that's the smart thing to do. I think what you're getting at is that China would have more leverage over the US if they attacked (attempted to invade) Taiwan, which they could use to make it more difficult for the US to protect Taiwan. In that case they could do things like block some or all exports to the US until we, say, stopped escorting cargo ships in and out of Taiwan. But the notion they would "instantly cut off all exports to the US" is nonsense. There's no reason that's somehow a no-brainer post invasion.

Clubber 2y ago
>In that case they could do things like block some or all exports to the US until we, say, stopped escorting cargo ships in and out of Taiwan. But the notion they would "instantly cut off all exports to the US" is nonsense. There's no reason that's somehow a no-brainer post invasion. You think they would supply their enemy? Biden said he would protect Taiwan pretty emphatically. I assume Trump would be advised of the same.

grayhatter 2y ago

> we can only go to war with the equipment we have and will struggle to produce any more equipment in a short period of time. No more uniforms, no more tanks, no more drones, no more missiles, no more artillery shells, no more medicine, etc, because all the materials for those things are largely sourced from Asia, which would now under a blockade. So if instead all of these weren't sourced from exclusively Asia, and were sourced from many different countries, including domestically, there wouldn't be a problem? Also, is your assertion really that US military would be at a near term disadvantage, if exports from Asia stopped? That's a wild take. > They would probably blockade Japan and other countries as well to keep them from exporting to the US, because that's the smart thing to do You're the first person to try to convince me that it would be smart for China to start a world war with the US and it's allies over Taiwan. Needless to say, I disagree that it would be smart, I disagree that china would be willing and likely to do it, and disagree they could do it if they actually tried.