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It's not big deal for MOST Chinese, who are used to consuming cheap Chinese goods and will continue to. It's a big deal for MOST Americans, who are used to cons
by maxglute 2y ago
It's not big deal for MOST Chinese, who are used to consuming cheap Chinese goods and will continue to. It's a big deal for MOST Americans, who are used to consuming cheap Chinese goods but will not continue to. It's also a big deal for some Chinese producers that depend on US which is minority, because US though largest, is not significant share of PRC exports, and US producers who depend on PRC. The former I've acknowledged.
I don't think Americans will see large price increases, as in nothing most households can't absorb / pile on their credit... but US is debt society, so many will drown. The pain is not the same as PRC dipping more into savings if they deal with price increase.
So no, IMO the most likely scenario is many americans are going to feel the tariffs, some will drown, some PRC producers that depend on US and american producers (that depends on PRC inputs) are going to drown. But your average Chinese will tighten belt like then did in 2024, because vibe sucks, not because they're losing purchasing power or going bankrupt, since PRC has high savings society.
> seen this manifest
Again, wipe 3% off PRC GDP (i.e. near total cessation of US trade) and they're back to 9 months ago. They'll broadly feel what they feel then. Some will feel it worse, because they're specifically exposed to US trade. But most will not. The average American will feel the trade war more than the average Chinese, because the average Chinese will continue to get cheap Chinese goods. The psychology is going to hit different on society level and influence accordingly.