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Their population is declining, and they are a long way away from parity with the west on a per-capita basis. I think China missed their opportunity. Also, the

by bpt3 2y ago

Their population is declining, and they are a long way away from parity with the west on a per-capita basis. I think China missed their opportunity. Also, the UK hasn't dominated finance for a century and has never been dominant in services, so it doesn't seem like an apt comparison.

bryanlarsen 2y ago
> Their population is declining Not where it matters. China has a much larger under-employed population base than the US has. They still have a few hundred million peasant farmers whose children can and are getting educated and moving to the city. Their pool of labour is growing while the US's is stagnant. Not that it needs to grow -- over the last decade or so China's factory employment has been relatively constant while output has surged dramatically. Their factories are rapidly automating.
- giardini 2y ago
  We don't need "peasant farmers" to educate, we need AIs to program!8-)) The race between manual labor and machine labor is heating up anew. We don't yet have humanoid robots but they're on the design table, so it may be time to fasten your seat belt.
  - themgt 2y ago
    > We don't yet have humanoid robots but they're on the design table, so it may be time to fasten your seat belt. Right ... so about that, here's Morgan Stanley's report on humanoid robots from a couple months ago: Investors will notice that 73% of the companies confirmed to be involved in humanoids and 77% of integrators are based out of Asia (56%/45% out of China, respectively). A common refrain we hear from investors is the lack of Western firms to add to their humanoid portfolio outside of TSLA and NVDA. In our view, this is important information in and of itself as it represents the reality of the current humanoid ecosystem which we expect may need to change materially over time (see the West's current experience with EVs which has significant supply chain overlap with humanoids). Our research suggests China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefitting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of national government support. https://advisor.morganstanley.com/john.howard/documents/field/j/jo/john-howard/The_Humanoid_100_-_Mapping_the_Humanoid_Robot_Value_Chain.pdf https://advisor.morganstanley.com/john.howard/documents/fiel...
  - thfuran 2y ago
    Educating a few hundred million former peasant farmers is how you get things invented.
  - numpad0 2y ago
    You might as well start from educating peasant farmers even at that.
- bpt3 2y ago
  The US labor pool is far from stagnant thanks to immigration, though Trump is trying to screw that up as well. And those children will be burdened with caring for their elderly parents, often alone, continuing to keep internal consumption low. They are automating and moving up the supply chain, but have a long, long way to go as a nation.
ttoinou 2y ago
But look at per capita per purchasing power
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  Power of the purchasing power was a luxury of the US being the most desirable source of stability, creating a high demand for US securities and money. If trust in the US goes down, then so does purchasing power.
  - slt2021 2y ago
    there will always be states-hostages to the US Navy and US Air Force that will be forced to purchase USD, for example Gulf States that basically pay ransom in term of keeping the petrodollar and investing in USD. The moment oil producing gulf states decide to stop buying USD bonds, they will receive "democracy". The whole intent to fight Iran is not only to protect Israel, but also to choke off China's major oil supplier. If Iran folds into US control, it will be easier to choke China in terms of energy supplies
- DrillShopper 2y ago
  Per capita purchasing power will decrease rapidly in the US if USD stops being the world's preferred reserve currency. China's per capita purchasing power will increase rapidly if RMB becomes the world's preferred reserve currency. Trump seems to be doing everything to speed up the former and as a result is also speeding up the latter.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
vlovich123 2y ago
> I think China missed their opportunity. I think so too prior to the Trump tarrifs. Now their influence abroad is picking up steam again, with former WW2 enemies now becoming trade allies. I think this has reinvigorated their opportunity.
- bpt3 2y ago
  China hasn't changed, as their new "partners" will be reminded of soon enough. I suspect they will squander the opportunity the US unforced error has provided, but we'll see.
  - vlovich123 2y ago
    The partners didn’t want to establish strong trade ties because of national animus between their peoples stemming from WW2 and regional security concerns, not because China is an unreliable trading partner. From what I’ve read, China is actually a very reliable trading partner and generally asks a lot less of countries than the US does. Obviously that’s how they attempt to gain influence and leverage in US spheres of influence longer term to make larger asks, but most politicians only think of short term consequences.
    - int_19h 2y ago
      And national animus can change significantly over time. Just look at where US and Vietnam are (or were, prior to tariffs).
  - FuriouslyAdrift 2y ago
    Lesson I learned doing business with PRC over the decades: if you're not family, then you are an enemy. If you're not Han, then you're not human...
throwacct 2y ago
This 100x. This is the time to go all in and truly shake everything from the ground up. If the US moves at least 25% to the continent, it could solve lots of issues by developing manufacturing for critical products in-house and nearshoring the rest to LATAM, helping reduce illegal immigration considerably. Win-win for the whole continent.
- goatlover 2y ago
  It will be more expensive for the consumer who will have been busy paying the tariff sales tax to get to that point. There's a reason businesses moved industry overseas.
lossolo 2y ago
The first effects of their population decline will be felt around 2050 by UN estimations. What do you think they’ll be doing for the next 30 years? Considering they already ship more robots than the rest of the world combined, I don't think that will be a huge problem.
- boelboel 2y ago
  No their population decline is felt already, they don't have enough people to fill the factories right now and too many highly educated people. This is mostly about people in non stem related fields and non elite universities. If you're a young chinese with a so-so degree you're basically fucked. The UN estimations are fully off for all countries in the world (look at the actual fertility rates published by countries). If you look at UN you'll see like 1.7 fertility rate for colombia, in reality it's 1.0. All countries are kinda demographically fucked, the US is the one that's doing the best. They have been forging their demographic numbers for years already as well. I'm not saying it looks rosy for the US but it's not great for china either unless you believe in some kinda rapid rise in robotisation in the next 10 years.
Sonnigeszeug 2y ago
'declining' on which level? China will surpass USA from a GDP Point of view in 2035. China surpassed Germany as industry machines export in 2018.
- ebruchez 2y ago
  > China will surpass USA from a GDP Point of view in 2035. Don't be so sure, this has become much less clear. For example, in this article: "The Centre for Economics and Business Research, which in 2020 predicted that China would overtake the U.S. by 2028, revised the crossover point two years later, to 2036. This month, the British consultancy said it will not happen in the next 15 years." https://www.newsweek.com/2025/01/31/china-us-compete-biggest-economies-gdp-population-birth-rates-2010768.html https://www.newsweek.com/2025/01/31/china-us-compete-biggest...
  - thfuran 2y ago
    That was before the US decided to shoot itself in the face with economic policy.
    - ebruchez 2y ago
      Yes, but this will likely hurt China as well. You can't assume only the US will be hurt by this.
      - thfuran 2y ago
        I don't. I'm saying all prior bets are off, though I do think US is going to be in the center of the nexus of pain, even if China is also hurt.
        greenchair 2y ago
        [flagged]
      - Sonnigeszeug 2y ago
engineer_22 2y ago
We can afford to be lazy, the chinese have their own problems. Word for that, hubris
kolanos 2y ago
> Their population is declining, ... This can not be overstated. China is on the verge of the largest population collapse in human history. By 2080 China's population will drop by 600 million. If that trend continues, by 2150 China's population will drop to 280 million. Other asian countries such as South Korea and Japan are on a similar trajectory.
- gowld 2y ago
  Why would that trend continue for 100 years? No reason to believe that.
  - stackedinserter 2y ago
    Because women are obligated to work 40 hours every week just to stay afloat. Unless you find a way for young educated family to live a decent life on a single husband's income, the trend will continue.
    - Ancalagon 2y ago
      And that wont happen to the US?
      - stackedinserter 2y ago
        What is "that" that "won't happen"? US, Canada, Europe are demographically cooked too, but they (partially) solve this problem with immigration, that is not an option for China and the rest of Asia.
        Jensson 2y ago
        You think there will be zero policy changes in China over the next 125 years?
        stackedinserter 2y ago
tim333 2y ago
The UK may not have dominated finance for a while but we had headlines like: "London Beats New York as the World’s Leading Financial Center in the Latest Ranking" in 2015 before the glory that is Brexit. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/london-beats-new-york-as-the-world-s-leading-financial-city https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/london-be...

by bpt3 2y ago

bryanlarsen 2y ago

> Their population is declining Not where it matters. China has a much larger under-employed population base than the US has. They still have a few hundred million peasant farmers whose children can and are getting educated and moving to the city. Their pool of labour is growing while the US's is stagnant. Not that it needs to grow -- over the last decade or so China's factory employment has been relatively constant while output has surged dramatically. Their factories are rapidly automating.

giardini 2y ago
We don't need "peasant farmers" to educate, we need AIs to program!8-)) The race between manual labor and machine labor is heating up anew. We don't yet have humanoid robots but they're on the design table, so it may be time to fasten your seat belt.
- themgt 2y ago
  > We don't yet have humanoid robots but they're on the design table, so it may be time to fasten your seat belt. Right ... so about that, here's Morgan Stanley's report on humanoid robots from a couple months ago: Investors will notice that 73% of the companies confirmed to be involved in humanoids and 77% of integrators are based out of Asia (56%/45% out of China, respectively). A common refrain we hear from investors is the lack of Western firms to add to their humanoid portfolio outside of TSLA and NVDA. In our view, this is important information in and of itself as it represents the reality of the current humanoid ecosystem which we expect may need to change materially over time (see the West's current experience with EVs which has significant supply chain overlap with humanoids). Our research suggests China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefitting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of national government support. https://advisor.morganstanley.com/john.howard/documents/field/j/jo/john-howard/The_Humanoid_100_-_Mapping_the_Humanoid_Robot_Value_Chain.pdf https://advisor.morganstanley.com/john.howard/documents/fiel...
- thfuran 2y ago
  Educating a few hundred million former peasant farmers is how you get things invented.
- numpad0 2y ago
  You might as well start from educating peasant farmers even at that.
bpt3 2y ago
The US labor pool is far from stagnant thanks to immigration, though Trump is trying to screw that up as well. And those children will be burdened with caring for their elderly parents, often alone, continuing to keep internal consumption low. They are automating and moving up the supply chain, but have a long, long way to go as a nation.

ttoinou 2y ago

But look at per capita per purchasing power

lotsofpulp 2y ago
Power of the purchasing power was a luxury of the US being the most desirable source of stability, creating a high demand for US securities and money. If trust in the US goes down, then so does purchasing power.
- slt2021 2y ago
  there will always be states-hostages to the US Navy and US Air Force that will be forced to purchase USD, for example Gulf States that basically pay ransom in term of keeping the petrodollar and investing in USD. The moment oil producing gulf states decide to stop buying USD bonds, they will receive "democracy". The whole intent to fight Iran is not only to protect Israel, but also to choke off China's major oil supplier. If Iran folds into US control, it will be easier to choke China in terms of energy supplies
DrillShopper 2y ago
Per capita purchasing power will decrease rapidly in the US if USD stops being the world's preferred reserve currency. China's per capita purchasing power will increase rapidly if RMB becomes the world's preferred reserve currency. Trump seems to be doing everything to speed up the former and as a result is also speeding up the latter.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

vlovich123 2y ago

> I think China missed their opportunity. I think so too prior to the Trump tarrifs. Now their influence abroad is picking up steam again, with former WW2 enemies now becoming trade allies. I think this has reinvigorated their opportunity.

bpt3 2y ago
China hasn't changed, as their new "partners" will be reminded of soon enough. I suspect they will squander the opportunity the US unforced error has provided, but we'll see.
- vlovich123 2y ago
  The partners didn’t want to establish strong trade ties because of national animus between their peoples stemming from WW2 and regional security concerns, not because China is an unreliable trading partner. From what I’ve read, China is actually a very reliable trading partner and generally asks a lot less of countries than the US does. Obviously that’s how they attempt to gain influence and leverage in US spheres of influence longer term to make larger asks, but most politicians only think of short term consequences.
  - int_19h 2y ago
    And national animus can change significantly over time. Just look at where US and Vietnam are (or were, prior to tariffs).
- FuriouslyAdrift 2y ago
  Lesson I learned doing business with PRC over the decades: if you're not family, then you are an enemy. If you're not Han, then you're not human...

throwacct 2y ago

This 100x. This is the time to go all in and truly shake everything from the ground up. If the US moves at least 25% to the continent, it could solve lots of issues by developing manufacturing for critical products in-house and nearshoring the rest to LATAM, helping reduce illegal immigration considerably. Win-win for the whole continent.

goatlover 2y ago
It will be more expensive for the consumer who will have been busy paying the tariff sales tax to get to that point. There's a reason businesses moved industry overseas.

lossolo 2y ago

The first effects of their population decline will be felt around 2050 by UN estimations. What do you think they’ll be doing for the next 30 years? Considering they already ship more robots than the rest of the world combined, I don't think that will be a huge problem.

boelboel 2y ago
No their population decline is felt already, they don't have enough people to fill the factories right now and too many highly educated people. This is mostly about people in non stem related fields and non elite universities. If you're a young chinese with a so-so degree you're basically fucked. The UN estimations are fully off for all countries in the world (look at the actual fertility rates published by countries). If you look at UN you'll see like 1.7 fertility rate for colombia, in reality it's 1.0. All countries are kinda demographically fucked, the US is the one that's doing the best. They have been forging their demographic numbers for years already as well. I'm not saying it looks rosy for the US but it's not great for china either unless you believe in some kinda rapid rise in robotisation in the next 10 years.

Sonnigeszeug 2y ago

'declining' on which level? China will surpass USA from a GDP Point of view in 2035. China surpassed Germany as industry machines export in 2018.

ebruchez 2y ago
> China will surpass USA from a GDP Point of view in 2035. Don't be so sure, this has become much less clear. For example, in this article: "The Centre for Economics and Business Research, which in 2020 predicted that China would overtake the U.S. by 2028, revised the crossover point two years later, to 2036. This month, the British consultancy said it will not happen in the next 15 years." https://www.newsweek.com/2025/01/31/china-us-compete-biggest-economies-gdp-population-birth-rates-2010768.html https://www.newsweek.com/2025/01/31/china-us-compete-biggest...
- thfuran 2y ago
  That was before the US decided to shoot itself in the face with economic policy.
  - ebruchez 2y ago
    Yes, but this will likely hurt China as well. You can't assume only the US will be hurt by this.
    - thfuran 2y ago
      I don't. I'm saying all prior bets are off, though I do think US is going to be in the center of the nexus of pain, even if China is also hurt.
      - greenchair 2y ago
        [flagged]
    - Sonnigeszeug 2y ago

engineer_22 2y ago

We can afford to be lazy, the chinese have their own problems. Word for that, hubris

kolanos 2y ago

> Their population is declining, ... This can not be overstated. China is on the verge of the largest population collapse in human history. By 2080 China's population will drop by 600 million. If that trend continues, by 2150 China's population will drop to 280 million. Other asian countries such as South Korea and Japan are on a similar trajectory.

gowld 2y ago
Why would that trend continue for 100 years? No reason to believe that.
- stackedinserter 2y ago
  Because women are obligated to work 40 hours every week just to stay afloat. Unless you find a way for young educated family to live a decent life on a single husband's income, the trend will continue.
  - Ancalagon 2y ago
    And that wont happen to the US?
    - stackedinserter 2y ago
      What is "that" that "won't happen"? US, Canada, Europe are demographically cooked too, but they (partially) solve this problem with immigration, that is not an option for China and the rest of Asia.
      - Jensson 2y ago
        You think there will be zero policy changes in China over the next 125 years?
        stackedinserter 2y ago

tim333 2y ago

The UK may not have dominated finance for a while but we had headlines like: "London Beats New York as the World’s Leading Financial Center in the Latest Ranking" in 2015 before the glory that is Brexit. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/london-beats-new-york-as-the-world-s-leading-financial-city https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/london-be...