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> I think China's response is a huge gamble that the psychosis can be broken with careful application of pain - before that pain hurts China even more. Politic

by lapcat 2y ago

> I think China's response is a huge gamble that the psychosis can be broken with careful application of pain - before that pain hurts China even more. Politically, as a dictatorship, China can withstand pain longer than the US, which is not (yet) a dictatorship, and even if Trump himself can't be moved, Congressional Republicans are nervous about the 2026 midterm elections. > most people in the US who backed Trump are debtors and consumers who are going to see prices go through the roof. But there is no guarantee they will blame their leader. The people who love Trump are never going to be moved, but Trump's victory in 2024 required nonpartisan swing voters who were frustrated with the economy under Biden as well as hard-core supporters. If the economy actually gets worse rather than better under Trump, then the swing voters can easily swing the other way in 2026 and 2028.

tvc015 2y ago
Swing voters are always underestimated. But can the left run moderate candidates that appeal to the Bill Ackman types? I wish they could but I suspect they can’t and won’t. Their recent track record is how we’re here.
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  I don't know. I hold out hope that the Democrats are capable of thinking and learning, but their actions after the 2024 election haven't given much evidence of that...
- lapcat 2y ago
  > But can the left run moderate candidates that appeal to the Bill Ackman types? What type is that, billionaire hedge fund managers voting in a solid blue state? Who cares? The voters who matter are in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. In general, swing voters are nonpartisan, not "moderate". Trump is certainly not moderate, yet they voted for him anyway. Indeed, polls show that independents prefer Bernie Sanders over any Democrat. Partisans want to define all politics on ideological lines, but that's not the way nonpartisans think and behave. The billionaires probably backed Trump because they loved the tax cuts of his first administration and were expecting basically more of the same. Tax cuts and deregulation, the standard agenda of that type. (A Biden and/or Harris administration was likely to result in higher taxes for them and more regulation.) They failed to anticipate what Trump would be like unrestrained, emboldened by a popular vote win, unburdened by reelection concerns, surviving impeachment and felony conviction, surviving an assassination attempt, and having purged all dissenters from his party and now from the federal government. Trump is probably feeling like king of the world at this moment, as if every other country will bow down to him (and many will).

by lapcat 2y ago

tvc015 2y ago

Swing voters are always underestimated. But can the left run moderate candidates that appeal to the Bill Ackman types? I wish they could but I suspect they can’t and won’t. Their recent track record is how we’re here.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
I don't know. I hold out hope that the Democrats are capable of thinking and learning, but their actions after the 2024 election haven't given much evidence of that...
lapcat 2y ago
> But can the left run moderate candidates that appeal to the Bill Ackman types? What type is that, billionaire hedge fund managers voting in a solid blue state? Who cares? The voters who matter are in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. In general, swing voters are nonpartisan, not "moderate". Trump is certainly not moderate, yet they voted for him anyway. Indeed, polls show that independents prefer Bernie Sanders over any Democrat. Partisans want to define all politics on ideological lines, but that's not the way nonpartisans think and behave. The billionaires probably backed Trump because they loved the tax cuts of his first administration and were expecting basically more of the same. Tax cuts and deregulation, the standard agenda of that type. (A Biden and/or Harris administration was likely to result in higher taxes for them and more regulation.) They failed to anticipate what Trump would be like unrestrained, emboldened by a popular vote win, unburdened by reelection concerns, surviving impeachment and felony conviction, surviving an assassination attempt, and having purged all dissenters from his party and now from the federal government. Trump is probably feeling like king of the world at this moment, as if every other country will bow down to him (and many will).