5 ms·

> I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolati

> I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? No. There needs to be balance. We are way past the balance point, by far. When I say "we" I mean the US and Europe. We have the same problems, and I believe Europe is in far greater danger to be absolutely decimated in the next two to five decades. Example: We are currently working on a robotics project. Just-about the only thing we can buy in the US (or Europe, for that matter) is the aluminum and steel, and only if we are ready to do the fabrication --machining-- ourselves (which we can do). If we have to rely on third parties to manufacture the parts we are sunk. Making anything in the US (and Europe) has become impossible. Wires, cables, circuit boards, motors, encoders, chips, displays, cast iron or aluminum parts, gears, belts, injection molded parts, filters, lubricants, etc. The list is massively long. Again, US and Europe, same problem. The massive imbalance in tariffs and trade restrictions has collapsed entire industries. Try to print books or manuals in the US or Europe at scale. Good luck. Try to make packaging materials. Same problem. I've been manufacturing for about four decades. It has never been worse. It's horrible. And we need to fix it or we'll be left with nothing. You cannot have an economy that is purely based on providing services and writing software. A couple of decades ago, I used to buy a specially-treated antireflective type of glass from the last company making it in the US. The Chinese started to dump and created pricing pressure. Five years later they were out of business. I then bought the same type of glass from the sole remaining western factory in Germany. A couple of years later they discontinued the product. I then had to buy from China. A couple of years later they increased their prices --nearly doubled. That's what we've been dealing with (US and Europe). A predatory and destructive "machine". This isn't about making everything. It's about making enough to have a viable economy in the long run. I find that people who are not in manufacturing cannot grasp this. It isn't about hating China either. They are doing exactly right by their people. I admire their dedication and focus. We (US and Europe) are the idiots.

aj7 2y ago
This only stops when China equalizes. The real shame is our country is not such a nice place to live, when we enter our phase as a less-advanced country. We always had brilliant immigrants and democratic ideals to keep the ball rolling. What now?
- robomartin 2y ago
  > This only stops when China equalizes. Not sure what that means. There are many potential outcomes that could be defined as "equalizes". At one limit, no country in the world, except for China, has a solid industrial base. In other words, nobody makes anything except for China. OK, then their standard of living continues to increase. Got it. In, say, 50 years, the cost of doing business in China starts to become less competitive. This, assuming no manipulation. This creates an opportunity for other nations to return to participation in various industrial sectors. However, this also means fifty years of utter destruction around the world. This also comes with loss of skilled workforce, manufacturing plants and the infrastructure necessary to support industrial activities. Regrettably, by that time, most industrial capacity around the world would have been utterly destroyed. So, this reentry into manufacturing will likely be characterized by making low value products. For example, making screws, wire, some types of clothing, etc. Assembly operations might also make sense for lower tech products. This will only make sense if shipping parts from China to country X and then assembling there is economically viable. Tough to predict five years from now, much less fifty. This process of "equalization" (in quotes because it really doesn't have a solid definition) most likely brings with it a further and non-trivial destruction of economic drivers in the US and Europe (and everywhere else). This, in turn, will result in terrible outcomes and economic collapse of the kind these societies are not used to (this is certainly the case in the US, Europeans have gone through serious consequences of the world wars). I will not claim to be smart enough about these things to understand what the solution might be. Go to Walmart or shop on Amazon and it is impossible not to come out thinking that the damage is done and must of this is not reversible. I don't know. What I do know is that something has to change or things are going to get worse, much worse. We are not going to float entire economies on the back of AI and data centers. I have always found the aspects of the history of Argentina have serious parallels with how large western economies have damaged themselves from the inside. Coincidentally, I just came across a nice and concise historical perspective of how this country went from being one of the top economies in the world to barely having the industrial output and economy to survive. Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=jGnl4Re8Gpk https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=jGnl4Re8Gpk
  - 1y ago

aj7 2y ago

This only stops when China equalizes. The real shame is our country is not such a nice place to live, when we enter our phase as a less-advanced country. We always had brilliant immigrants and democratic ideals to keep the ball rolling. What now?

robomartin 2y ago
> This only stops when China equalizes. Not sure what that means. There are many potential outcomes that could be defined as "equalizes". At one limit, no country in the world, except for China, has a solid industrial base. In other words, nobody makes anything except for China. OK, then their standard of living continues to increase. Got it. In, say, 50 years, the cost of doing business in China starts to become less competitive. This, assuming no manipulation. This creates an opportunity for other nations to return to participation in various industrial sectors. However, this also means fifty years of utter destruction around the world. This also comes with loss of skilled workforce, manufacturing plants and the infrastructure necessary to support industrial activities. Regrettably, by that time, most industrial capacity around the world would have been utterly destroyed. So, this reentry into manufacturing will likely be characterized by making low value products. For example, making screws, wire, some types of clothing, etc. Assembly operations might also make sense for lower tech products. This will only make sense if shipping parts from China to country X and then assembling there is economically viable. Tough to predict five years from now, much less fifty. This process of "equalization" (in quotes because it really doesn't have a solid definition) most likely brings with it a further and non-trivial destruction of economic drivers in the US and Europe (and everywhere else). This, in turn, will result in terrible outcomes and economic collapse of the kind these societies are not used to (this is certainly the case in the US, Europeans have gone through serious consequences of the world wars). I will not claim to be smart enough about these things to understand what the solution might be. Go to Walmart or shop on Amazon and it is impossible not to come out thinking that the damage is done and must of this is not reversible. I don't know. What I do know is that something has to change or things are going to get worse, much worse. We are not going to float entire economies on the back of AI and data centers. I have always found the aspects of the history of Argentina have serious parallels with how large western economies have damaged themselves from the inside. Coincidentally, I just came across a nice and concise historical perspective of how this country went from being one of the top economies in the world to barely having the industrial output and economy to survive. Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=jGnl4Re8Gpk https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=jGnl4Re8Gpk
- 1y ago