The administration's record to date with respect to USAID, CDC, NIH, and Dept of Ed, suggests a vanishingly low probability of any "relatively benign scenarios

The administration's record to date with respect to USAID, CDC, NIH, and Dept of Ed, suggests a vanishingly low probability of any "relatively benign scenarios". Based on past actions I think the appropriate Bayesian prior for pretty much all such public health efforts is now "they've intentionally broken it" until proven otherwise. I'm happy to update my prior if evidence to the contrary comes to light.