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> This isn't backed by evidence, it's at best speculation for some potential future at least 4 years, but probably closer to 10, in the future. Most industries

> This isn't backed by evidence, it's at best speculation for some potential future at least 4 years, but probably closer to 10, in the future. Most industries cannot simply just spin up new factories at the turn of a switch. There are two arguments in favor of free trade: 1) We don’t want to spend expensive american labor building X. 2) We don’t have the industrial capability to build X anymore. The latter seems to be a damning indictment of the former. It’s one thing not to build X domestically to save money. It’s another thing to lose the capability to feasibly build X in the US because you have outsources that capability and lost it. I’m sure if we ever got into a war with China, they’d wait for us for a decade to rebuild our manufacturing capacity.

packetlost 2y ago
#2 is basically the whole justification for the military industrial complex. Why do you think so many tax dollars go to the big ominous "military spending" bucket? It's not going into some black whole, it props up hundreds of thousands of manufacturing and R&D jobs. Even then, it doesn't justify blanket tariffs on entire countries, it would justify tariffs on specific industries that are seen as strategic, which is not what's happening.
thaumasiotes 2y ago
> There are two arguments in favor of free trade You missed the single most common argument in favor of free trade: 1. Everyone has more stuff than otherwise. Under free trade, total world production is higher.
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  I think that is related to #1 above, but isn't necessarily true. There can be winners and losers of free trade, despite more aggregate production. I dont personally think we were there, but it is a possibility.
  - thaumasiotes 2y ago
    > I think that is related to #1 above It isn't; if we had lower labor costs than everywhere else, free trade would still have the same effects.
_t9ow 2y ago
> a decade You're quite optimistic. With the current administration and its purge of federal workers (including those in NIST), it will likely take much longer than that.

packetlost 2y ago

#2 is basically the whole justification for the military industrial complex. Why do you think so many tax dollars go to the big ominous "military spending" bucket? It's not going into some black whole, it props up hundreds of thousands of manufacturing and R&D jobs. Even then, it doesn't justify blanket tariffs on entire countries, it would justify tariffs on specific industries that are seen as strategic, which is not what's happening.

thaumasiotes 2y ago

> There are two arguments in favor of free trade You missed the single most common argument in favor of free trade: 1. Everyone has more stuff than otherwise. Under free trade, total world production is higher.

s1artibartfast 2y ago
I think that is related to #1 above, but isn't necessarily true. There can be winners and losers of free trade, despite more aggregate production. I dont personally think we were there, but it is a possibility.
- thaumasiotes 2y ago
  > I think that is related to #1 above It isn't; if we had lower labor costs than everywhere else, free trade would still have the same effects.

_t9ow 2y ago

> a decade You're quite optimistic. With the current administration and its purge of federal workers (including those in NIST), it will likely take much longer than that.