My contention is that if you went back and did a sentiment analysis of the early to mid hype cycle conversations around the things in your list and compared the

My contention is that if you went back and did a sentiment analysis of the early to mid hype cycle conversations around the things in your list and compared them with the things in my list, there would be very little difference between the two sets of things. There was lots of hype and also lots of skepticism, for both sets of things. My point is that hype vs. skepticism just isn't the useful metric. I agree with you that this does not mean that it's impossible to identify which technologies have a "there" there, and which don't. I just don't think the level of hype is a very helpful input into the calculation.