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Solar is nowhere near hitting limits that will require storage to continue growth. Like it could double several more times globally and not require storage to s

Solar is nowhere near hitting limits that will require storage to continue growth. Like it could double several more times globally and not require storage to still make sense to roll out more. But, storage is already growing at a pace similar to solar because it's cheaper than the alternatives.

zozbot234 2y ago
The bulk of storage on the grid is just pumped hydro, everything else is literally a drop in the bucket. Some people like to make the argument that battery storage can grow enough to become relevant but that's just speculation, it hasn't happened so far.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  Global grid BESS has caught up on Hydro capacity (which is an ambiguous word in this domain i.e. the amount that can be delivered at any one instant). It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. The future is here, just not everywhere yet.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    > It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. Citations: https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-eureka-moment https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-e... https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/batteries-start-to-rival-gas-on-californias-electricity-grid.html https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/b... https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-energy-storage-system-survey https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo... https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly
  - AnthonyMouse 2y ago
    It's still not clear how this is supposed to work for heating load. Covering the incremental evening demand peak is one thing. Converting fuel oil and natural gas-based heating to electric and then covering the nighttime winter heating load in northern latitudes is something else entirely.
    - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
      Just repurposing that gas used for heating to generating electricity for heat pumps is a big step forward, delivering more heat for less gas and synergises well with wind and batteries which further reduce gas usage. Gas boilers are now the leading source of NOx pollution in London since they've made so much progress on traffic sources.
      - AnthonyMouse 2y ago
        Well sure, but if the premise is that we're going to replace everything with solar and batteries, that one's the hard one. Whereas heat pumps powered by nuclear reactors work pretty well, if you could get the cost of nuclear reactors under control by getting mass production going.
    - ben_w 2y ago
      Between better insulation[0], and north-south grid connections[1], I'm not sure this is a huge issue. Yes, there are going to be places like Nuorgam in Finland where a population of 200 may turn out to be non-economical to put on the same suitably upgraded HVDC grid as everyone else, but they're also not getting e.g. a dedicated nuclear reactor any time soon. Yes, that does still leave oil and gas in such places. Or would, if the oil and gas remained economical to supply internationally when the majority of users worldwide stop using it. Biofuels (e.g. wood in a fireplace) is still a thing, even if not fantastic for either health or environment. I have no idea if we're going to see other long-term chemistry-based solutions, people keep talking about ammonia but it's too far out of my knowledge to argue for or against. [0] I'm 52° north and for the last 6 months was wearing T-shirts indoors for an average of 17 kWh per day (for everything: heating, hot water, appliances, tech) even though there were a few times I accidentally left a huge window open for hours. It's very well insulated and has a heat pump. [1] Longer days closer to the equator. North tip of Lapland has 52 days without sunrise in winter[2], but it's just a question of "how much money and what's the cheaper alternative" for a grid connection that ultimately ends up in the Sahara where the winter solstice day length is 10 hours[3]. [2] https://www.finavia.fi/en/newsroom/2023/what-polar-night-experience-unique-darkness-finnish-lapland https://www.finavia.fi/en/newsroom/2023/what-polar-night-exp... [3] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=Tataouine+sunrise+21+Dec+to+Tataouine+sunset+21+Dec https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=Tataouine+sunrise+21+De...
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  https://thedriven.io/2025/03/25/byd-leads-unstoppable-charge-to-electric-vehicles-as-tesla-leaves-the-race/ https://thedriven.io/2025/03/25/byd-leads-unstoppable-charge... ("In 2024, 3,100 GWh of fully commissioned battery-cell manufacturing capacity was online, more than 2.5x that of annual demand. This has driven massive demand growth for EVs and stationary energy storage (BESS) systems globally, with China continuing to dominate.") Global BESS deployments soared 53% in 2024 - https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soared-53-in-2024/ https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soar... - January 14, 2025 ("Storage installations in 2024 beat expectations with 205GWh installed globally, a staggering y-o-y increase of 53%. The grid market has once again been the driver of growth, with more than 160GWh deployed globally, of which 98% was lithium-ion.") China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-09/china-s-batteries-are-now-cheap-enough-to-power-huge-shifts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-09/china-... | https://archive.today/DklaA https://archive.today/DklaA - July 9, 2024 China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-... | https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://archive.today/8Dy4D - April 12, 2024 Global BESS deployments to exceed 400GWh annually by 2030, says Rystad Energy - https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-to-exceed-400gw-annually-by-2030-says-rystad-energy/ https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-to-e... - June 15, 2023
  - hnaccount_rng 2y ago
    To put that number into perspective: That's about three days of Germany's electricity usage. And we can easily absorb 2-3 days in the electric grid alone.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Every 30 minutes, enough sunlight falls on Earth to power humanity for a year. It is simply a matter of scaling up fusion energy at a distance.
      - 2y ago
liveafterlove 2y ago
[dead]

zozbot234 2y ago

The bulk of storage on the grid is just pumped hydro, everything else is literally a drop in the bucket. Some people like to make the argument that battery storage can grow enough to become relevant but that's just speculation, it hasn't happened so far.

ZeroGravitas 2y ago
Global grid BESS has caught up on Hydro capacity (which is an ambiguous word in this domain i.e. the amount that can be delivered at any one instant). It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. The future is here, just not everywhere yet.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  > It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. Citations: https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-eureka-moment https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-e... https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/batteries-start-to-rival-gas-on-californias-electricity-grid.html https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/b... https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-energy-storage-system-survey https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo... https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly
- AnthonyMouse 2y ago
  It's still not clear how this is supposed to work for heating load. Covering the incremental evening demand peak is one thing. Converting fuel oil and natural gas-based heating to electric and then covering the nighttime winter heating load in northern latitudes is something else entirely.
  - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
    Just repurposing that gas used for heating to generating electricity for heat pumps is a big step forward, delivering more heat for less gas and synergises well with wind and batteries which further reduce gas usage. Gas boilers are now the leading source of NOx pollution in London since they've made so much progress on traffic sources.
    - AnthonyMouse 2y ago
      Well sure, but if the premise is that we're going to replace everything with solar and batteries, that one's the hard one. Whereas heat pumps powered by nuclear reactors work pretty well, if you could get the cost of nuclear reactors under control by getting mass production going.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Between better insulation[0], and north-south grid connections[1], I'm not sure this is a huge issue. Yes, there are going to be places like Nuorgam in Finland where a population of 200 may turn out to be non-economical to put on the same suitably upgraded HVDC grid as everyone else, but they're also not getting e.g. a dedicated nuclear reactor any time soon. Yes, that does still leave oil and gas in such places. Or would, if the oil and gas remained economical to supply internationally when the majority of users worldwide stop using it. Biofuels (e.g. wood in a fireplace) is still a thing, even if not fantastic for either health or environment. I have no idea if we're going to see other long-term chemistry-based solutions, people keep talking about ammonia but it's too far out of my knowledge to argue for or against. [0] I'm 52° north and for the last 6 months was wearing T-shirts indoors for an average of 17 kWh per day (for everything: heating, hot water, appliances, tech) even though there were a few times I accidentally left a huge window open for hours. It's very well insulated and has a heat pump. [1] Longer days closer to the equator. North tip of Lapland has 52 days without sunrise in winter[2], but it's just a question of "how much money and what's the cheaper alternative" for a grid connection that ultimately ends up in the Sahara where the winter solstice day length is 10 hours[3]. [2] https://www.finavia.fi/en/newsroom/2023/what-polar-night-experience-unique-darkness-finnish-lapland https://www.finavia.fi/en/newsroom/2023/what-polar-night-exp... [3] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=Tataouine+sunrise+21+Dec+to+Tataouine+sunset+21+Dec https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=Tataouine+sunrise+21+De...
toomuchtodo 2y ago
https://thedriven.io/2025/03/25/byd-leads-unstoppable-charge-to-electric-vehicles-as-tesla-leaves-the-race/ https://thedriven.io/2025/03/25/byd-leads-unstoppable-charge... ("In 2024, 3,100 GWh of fully commissioned battery-cell manufacturing capacity was online, more than 2.5x that of annual demand. This has driven massive demand growth for EVs and stationary energy storage (BESS) systems globally, with China continuing to dominate.") Global BESS deployments soared 53% in 2024 - https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soared-53-in-2024/ https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soar... - January 14, 2025 ("Storage installations in 2024 beat expectations with 205GWh installed globally, a staggering y-o-y increase of 53%. The grid market has once again been the driver of growth, with more than 160GWh deployed globally, of which 98% was lithium-ion.") China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-09/china-s-batteries-are-now-cheap-enough-to-power-huge-shifts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-09/china-... | https://archive.today/DklaA https://archive.today/DklaA - July 9, 2024 China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-... | https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://archive.today/8Dy4D - April 12, 2024 Global BESS deployments to exceed 400GWh annually by 2030, says Rystad Energy - https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-to-exceed-400gw-annually-by-2030-says-rystad-energy/ https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-to-e... - June 15, 2023
- hnaccount_rng 2y ago
  To put that number into perspective: That's about three days of Germany's electricity usage. And we can easily absorb 2-3 days in the electric grid alone.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Every 30 minutes, enough sunlight falls on Earth to power humanity for a year. It is simply a matter of scaling up fusion energy at a distance.
    - 2y ago

liveafterlove 2y ago

[dead]