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Storage capacity on the grid will need to massively increase as well for solar to go much further.

jillesvangurp 2y ago
It will. And define massively. People overestimate and under-specify these numbers. Mostly this is just economics. The cost of 1kwh of battery is trending towards 50$ for manufacturers and trending down over time. So, installing a few kwh/mwh/gwh of battery is not the end of the world depending on your needs.
wongarsu 2y ago
It is increasing. At the moment it is slowed because for the longest time we were fine with just hydro, pumped hydro, gas peaker plants and the natural inertia of the power plants' turbines and generators. Now demand is big enough that even lithium-ion is deployed for grid storage, despite lithium-ion being optimized for the opposite use case (light portable power storage). Lots of options that are more optimized for grid storage are in various stages of development, but it takes time for them to be brought to maturity and for operators to gain experience and confidence with them.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ZeroGravitas 2y ago
Solar is nowhere near hitting limits that will require storage to continue growth. Like it could double several more times globally and not require storage to still make sense to roll out more. But, storage is already growing at a pace similar to solar because it's cheaper than the alternatives.
- zozbot234 2y ago
  The bulk of storage on the grid is just pumped hydro, everything else is literally a drop in the bucket. Some people like to make the argument that battery storage can grow enough to become relevant but that's just speculation, it hasn't happened so far.
  - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
    Global grid BESS has caught up on Hydro capacity (which is an ambiguous word in this domain i.e. the amount that can be delivered at any one instant). It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. The future is here, just not everywhere yet.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      > It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. Citations: https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-eureka-moment https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-e... https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/batteries-start-to-rival-gas-on-californias-electricity-grid.html https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/b... https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-energy-storage-system-survey https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo... https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly
    - AnthonyMouse 2y ago
      It's still not clear how this is supposed to work for heating load. Covering the incremental evening demand peak is one thing. Converting fuel oil and natural gas-based heating to electric and then covering the nighttime winter heating load in northern latitudes is something else entirely.
      - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
        Just repurposing that gas used for heating to generating electricity for heat pumps is a big step forward, delivering more heat for less gas and synergises well with wind and batteries which further reduce gas usage. Gas boilers are now the leading source of NOx pollution in London since they've made so much progress on traffic sources.
        2y ago
- liveafterlove 2y ago
  [dead]
aianus 2y ago
Can’t we just leave our EVs plugged in and use those?
- itishappy 2y ago
  Maybe, but significant technological development will still be needed, and it will depend a lot on the number of folks who are comfortable with their car losing range overnight (or policy).
rstuart4133 2y ago
> Storage capacity on the grid will need to massively increase as well for solar to go much further. Probably not, if your definition of "much further" is an increase from 30% or something. As a data point, one Australia State uses 70% renewables, average, over a year: https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/industry/hydrogen-and-renewable-energy/leading-the-green-economy https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/industry/hydrogen-and-ren... It's a mixture of wind and solar. Unlike other places that have a high percentage of renewable generation they do not have hydro of any sort. The renewables have replaced coal and gas generation. They are at 70% because renewables were cheaper than fossil 20 years ago, because they have no coal or gas - it's all imported. The transition was purely driven by cost. The costs were higher than any other state in Australia, so they started earlier. The most costly part right now is the remaining 30%, which is supplied by gas peakers. You can guess what might happen in the future from this: https://reneweconomy.com.au/i-could-never-find-a-business-case-renewable-bosses-say-gas-power-will-require-its-own-underwriting-scheme/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/i-could-never-find-a-business-ca... Some quotes to save you reading that link: - “The reality is that you can’t buy a gas turbine for the next four to five years,” David Scaysbrook, the founder and co-head of Quinbrook Infrastructure Investors, one of the world’s biggest energy investors ... “They’re all sold out,” he says. And the price has also soared. “They are nearly four times the cost of what it was two years ago.” - the rising cost of gas – it is about three times higher than it was a decade ago – has made the business case even more complicated (FYI: Australia is the worlds largest gas exporter - the problem isn't availability).

It will. And define massively. People overestimate and under-specify these numbers. Mostly this is just economics. The cost of 1kwh of battery is trending towards 50$ for manufacturers and trending down over time. So, installing a few kwh/mwh/gwh of battery is not the end of the world depending on your needs.

wongarsu 2y ago

It is increasing. At the moment it is slowed because for the longest time we were fine with just hydro, pumped hydro, gas peaker plants and the natural inertia of the power plants' turbines and generators. Now demand is big enough that even lithium-ion is deployed for grid storage, despite lithium-ion being optimized for the opposite use case (light portable power storage). Lots of options that are more optimized for grid storage are in various stages of development, but it takes time for them to be brought to maturity and for operators to gain experience and confidence with them.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

ZeroGravitas 2y ago

Solar is nowhere near hitting limits that will require storage to continue growth. Like it could double several more times globally and not require storage to still make sense to roll out more. But, storage is already growing at a pace similar to solar because it's cheaper than the alternatives.

zozbot234 2y ago
The bulk of storage on the grid is just pumped hydro, everything else is literally a drop in the bucket. Some people like to make the argument that battery storage can grow enough to become relevant but that's just speculation, it hasn't happened so far.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  Global grid BESS has caught up on Hydro capacity (which is an ambiguous word in this domain i.e. the amount that can be delivered at any one instant). It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. The future is here, just not everywhere yet.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    > It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening. Citations: https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-eureka-moment https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-beats-the-heat/#batteries-e... https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/batteries-start-to-rival-gas-on-californias-electricity-grid.html https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-08-25/b... https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-energy-storage-system-survey https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo... https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-CAL-CISO/72h/hourly
  - AnthonyMouse 2y ago
    It's still not clear how this is supposed to work for heating load. Covering the incremental evening demand peak is one thing. Converting fuel oil and natural gas-based heating to electric and then covering the nighttime winter heating load in northern latitudes is something else entirely.
    - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
      Just repurposing that gas used for heating to generating electricity for heat pumps is a big step forward, delivering more heat for less gas and synergises well with wind and batteries which further reduce gas usage. Gas boilers are now the leading source of NOx pollution in London since they've made so much progress on traffic sources.
      - 2y ago
liveafterlove 2y ago
[dead]

aianus 2y ago

Can’t we just leave our EVs plugged in and use those?

itishappy 2y ago
Maybe, but significant technological development will still be needed, and it will depend a lot on the number of folks who are comfortable with their car losing range overnight (or policy).

rstuart4133 2y ago

> Storage capacity on the grid will need to massively increase as well for solar to go much further. Probably not, if your definition of "much further" is an increase from 30% or something. As a data point, one Australia State uses 70% renewables, average, over a year: https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/industry/hydrogen-and-renewable-energy/leading-the-green-economy https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/industry/hydrogen-and-ren... It's a mixture of wind and solar. Unlike other places that have a high percentage of renewable generation they do not have hydro of any sort. The renewables have replaced coal and gas generation. They are at 70% because renewables were cheaper than fossil 20 years ago, because they have no coal or gas - it's all imported. The transition was purely driven by cost. The costs were higher than any other state in Australia, so they started earlier. The most costly part right now is the remaining 30%, which is supplied by gas peakers. You can guess what might happen in the future from this: https://reneweconomy.com.au/i-could-never-find-a-business-case-renewable-bosses-say-gas-power-will-require-its-own-underwriting-scheme/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/i-could-never-find-a-business-ca... Some quotes to save you reading that link: - “The reality is that you can’t buy a gas turbine for the next four to five years,” David Scaysbrook, the founder and co-head of Quinbrook Infrastructure Investors, one of the world’s biggest energy investors ... “They’re all sold out,” he says. And the price has also soared. “They are nearly four times the cost of what it was two years ago.” - the rising cost of gas – it is about three times higher than it was a decade ago – has made the business case even more complicated (FYI: Australia is the worlds largest gas exporter - the problem isn't availability).