4 ms·
I am excited to see the next 20 years :)
by bwb 2y ago
I am excited to see the next 20 years :)
- nxm 2y agoChina keeps adding coal power plants like no other and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future
- slaw 2y agoIn 2024, the world added 553 GW of new solar capacity. China added 277.17 GW.
- jasonsb 2y agoThey add coal as peaking power plants. They're not planning to run the grid on coal.
- timeon 2y agoIn context of climate change, absolute values of CO2 are still more relevant than proportion in generated energy.
- itishappy 2y agoSomewhat, but proportional/per-capita becomes more relevant when you allow for changing standards of living. Put differently: Unless you have a plan to change the number of people on Earth (please don't) or the amount of power required per person (potentially viable), then proportional and absolute are essentially equivalent.
- throwawaymaths 2y ago> will continue to do so for the foreseeable future Not really, there is going to be about a 40-year trough in the Chinese economy due to demographics. At some point soon, manufacturing in China won't make sense anymore, (and world wide demand will also decrease due to demographics) so presumably China will be able to decommission a lot of their power generation instead of adding to it. Will they axe their coal? Time will tell, but adding capacity will end, and not too far in the future, either.
- skrebbel 2y agoSure but they're also absolutely plastering entire valleys in solar panels simultaneously.
- itishappy 2y agoOn the other hand, the share of power produced by coal (and other fossil fuels) in China has been decreasing for over 10 years while the US has remained relatively stable. This tend will also continue for the foreseeable future.
- VerminOctopus1 2y agoFunny to read these comments when China is easily dwarfing all other nations in solar capacity and technology. You can make these dismissive comments all you want, but China is going to be at the forefront of “green” energy production this century.
- devmor 2y agoSure, but there's something to be said for continuing to add non-green energy alongside it. From an ecological perspective, it's like going on a diet and smoking an extra cigarette for every 100 calories you cut out.
- hnaccount_rng 2y agoThey are already ramping down new construction and they are starting to replace older (less efficient) plants. It's quite likely that one of these last 3 years will have been peak coal in China. The bad news is: That's a lot of coal that being burned. The good news is: They are less reliant on "recouping costs", which means _those_ plants will be shut down as soon as that's feasible
- bryanlarsen 2y agoAlso, they are steadily reducing the capacity factor of their coal plants. All of their recent coal plants are dispatchable plants, designed to run only when the sun isn't shining. So even though they are increasing capacity quickly, their actual usage of coal is relatively flat in comparison. And they've started building massive battery storage plants, which will likely substantially replace their coal plants over the next decade.
- tim333 2y agoRunning them less though: >In the first decade of the 2000s, plants were running around 70% of the time. They’re now running around 50% (https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants)
- toomuchtodo 1y agoChina’s Coal Generation Dropped 5% YOY In Q1 As Electricity Demand Increased - https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/20/chinas-coal-generation-dropped-5-yoy-in-q1-as-electricity-demand-increased/ https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/20/chinas-coal-generation-... - April 20th, 2025
- passwordoops 2y agoFor more breathless headlines touting a green transition as emissions continue to mysteriously increase at a record pace?
- throwawaymaths 2y agoIt's not a mystery. The US and EU have year on year been decreasing emissions for fifteen ish years now (yes, including during trump I, even if you account for the COVID drop).
- lm28469 2y agoThat's a cool story you can tell your kids before bed but the reality is that when you include imports the US/EU emissions are stagnating or going up. It's easy not to pollute when you import most of your things from abroad. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/imported-or-exported-co-emissions-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/imported-or-exported-co-e...
- ZeroGravitas 2y agoThat graph measures whether they are importing or not. So it's not the emissions that are stagnant, it's the per capita imports of emissions which are roughly flat. They have a separate graph which reflects "consumption" based emissions: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita?tab=chart https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit...
- zahlman 2y agoBy "imports of emissions" here, are we referring to the emissions involved in the creation of the imported goods? Or just what exactly?
- throwawaymaths 2y agoIt's an estimate, but AIUI yes.