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Sane-washing like this is already dangerous even before you figure in that a surprising amount of it seems to be predicated on starting a war with China in the

Sane-washing like this is already dangerous even before you figure in that a surprising amount of it seems to be predicated on starting a war with China in the near future. I guess that's the only plausible scenario they can think of that somewhat eclipses this self-inflicted disaster and makes it seem like a mere bump in the road by rhetorical comparison.

palmotea 2y ago
> a surprising amount of it seems to be predicated on starting a war with China in the near future. Or more likely China starting a war, which is periodically threatens to do eventually over Taiwan. And China will win, because it's successfully hollowing out the West, more and more every day: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/business/china-manufacturing-exports-trump-tariffs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/business/china-manufactur...: > Recent data from China’s central bank shows that state-controlled banks lent an extra $1.9 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years. On the fringes of cities all over China, new factories are being built day and night, and existing factories are being upgraded with robots and automation. > China’s investments and advances in manufacturing are producing a wave of exports that threatens to cause factory closings and layoffs not just in the United States but also around the globe.
- margalabargala 2y ago
  Eh. If they win, it'll be because primarily Russia was successful in dividingWestern countries internally so that they are unable to properly commit to anything. If the US decided unequivocably that it would militarily prevent China from taking Taiwan, it would succeed.
  - palmotea 2y ago
    I don't think so. I think the US is seeming more and more like a paper tiger. It still has a bit of a technology advantage, but China has such an overwhelming advantage in manufacturing capacity, that I think a conflict may will end up being like WWII in reverse: the US with V-2s and jet fighters (but too few) overwhelmed by waves and waves of Chinese B-17s and P-51 Mustangs. Also China's cornered the market on the latest military tech advancement: small drones. They've completely changed the battlefield in Ukraine, and my understanding both the Russian and Ukrainian drones are made from kits of Chinese building blocks (motors, frames, control boards, etc) sources from places like AliExpress. In a conflict with China, the US is going to get its AliExpress accounts closed, and probably lacks the manufacturing base to replace it at the necessary scale.
    - tim333 2y ago
      To invade Taiwan though they need to get near to by air or sea. In Ukraine any Russian ships or planes that get to Ukrainian areas are shot down. They have been able to launch glide bombs from ~30km away but China is 100 km from Taiwan and any planes are going to be seen coming.
      - palmotea 2y ago
        To supply Taiwan though they need to get near to by air or sea, and any planes and ships are going to be seen coming.
        margalabargala 2y ago
        Well, sure, it's hard to hide a half dozen carrier groups. China does not have what would be necessary to deny air and sea access to a hostile island 80 miles off its coast.
    - margalabargala 2y ago
      This take is not compatible with reality. China is nowhere near peer with the US militarily. Small drones are irrelevant for a Taiwan invasion. They don't have the range to get to Taiwan, and anything large enough to carry them will get poked full of holes on its way across the strait. The US meanwhile can bomb all of those manufacturing sites, while China is unable to bomb the US mainland. The best China could do in this situation would be to nuke Taiwan and make the whole thing irrelevant, but why bother at that point. It's much easier to attack the will of the US to defend Taiwan ahead of time. A US committed to military defense of Taiwan would not be defeated.
      - _t9ow 2y ago
        > China is nowhere near peer with the US militarily. Neither was Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Military prowess doesn't paint the whole picture.
        2y ago

palmotea 2y ago

> a surprising amount of it seems to be predicated on starting a war with China in the near future. Or more likely China starting a war, which is periodically threatens to do eventually over Taiwan. And China will win, because it's successfully hollowing out the West, more and more every day: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/business/china-manufacturing-exports-trump-tariffs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/business/china-manufactur...: > Recent data from China’s central bank shows that state-controlled banks lent an extra $1.9 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years. On the fringes of cities all over China, new factories are being built day and night, and existing factories are being upgraded with robots and automation. > China’s investments and advances in manufacturing are producing a wave of exports that threatens to cause factory closings and layoffs not just in the United States but also around the globe.

margalabargala 2y ago
Eh. If they win, it'll be because primarily Russia was successful in dividingWestern countries internally so that they are unable to properly commit to anything. If the US decided unequivocably that it would militarily prevent China from taking Taiwan, it would succeed.
- palmotea 2y ago
  I don't think so. I think the US is seeming more and more like a paper tiger. It still has a bit of a technology advantage, but China has such an overwhelming advantage in manufacturing capacity, that I think a conflict may will end up being like WWII in reverse: the US with V-2s and jet fighters (but too few) overwhelmed by waves and waves of Chinese B-17s and P-51 Mustangs. Also China's cornered the market on the latest military tech advancement: small drones. They've completely changed the battlefield in Ukraine, and my understanding both the Russian and Ukrainian drones are made from kits of Chinese building blocks (motors, frames, control boards, etc) sources from places like AliExpress. In a conflict with China, the US is going to get its AliExpress accounts closed, and probably lacks the manufacturing base to replace it at the necessary scale.
  - tim333 2y ago
    To invade Taiwan though they need to get near to by air or sea. In Ukraine any Russian ships or planes that get to Ukrainian areas are shot down. They have been able to launch glide bombs from ~30km away but China is 100 km from Taiwan and any planes are going to be seen coming.
    - palmotea 2y ago
      To supply Taiwan though they need to get near to by air or sea, and any planes and ships are going to be seen coming.
      - margalabargala 2y ago
        Well, sure, it's hard to hide a half dozen carrier groups. China does not have what would be necessary to deny air and sea access to a hostile island 80 miles off its coast.
  - margalabargala 2y ago
    This take is not compatible with reality. China is nowhere near peer with the US militarily. Small drones are irrelevant for a Taiwan invasion. They don't have the range to get to Taiwan, and anything large enough to carry them will get poked full of holes on its way across the strait. The US meanwhile can bomb all of those manufacturing sites, while China is unable to bomb the US mainland. The best China could do in this situation would be to nuke Taiwan and make the whole thing irrelevant, but why bother at that point. It's much easier to attack the will of the US to defend Taiwan ahead of time. A US committed to military defense of Taiwan would not be defeated.
    - _t9ow 2y ago
      > China is nowhere near peer with the US militarily. Neither was Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Military prowess doesn't paint the whole picture.
      - 2y ago