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This sounds like a good explanation, but it's equally ridiculous. Why not just source batteries anywhere you have to, then start launching EV models just to get

This sounds like a good explanation, but it's equally ridiculous. Why not just source batteries anywhere you have to, then start launching EV models just to get the production improvement curves started on the new tech? Japan cannot afford to begin this process in 2028. Honda is currently selling EVs made by GM, it's embarrassing.

alephnerd 2y ago
> Why not just source batteries anywhere you have to, then start launching EV models just to get the production improvement curves started on the new tech Why give money to direct competitors like BYD or CATL? The whole reason Japan has been hesitant on traditional li-ion batteries has been because they do not own the IP, and do not want to become dependent on a competitor - Japan and China have been in a trade war since 2011-2012 when the naval showdown happened, and Japan and South Korea were in a trade war from 2019 to 2022. METI has spent tens of billions and decades working on and subsidizing research in domestic li-s battery tech, and Japanese companies have been waiting it out as a result. > Japan cannot afford to begin this process in 2028 They can. EV sales remain a minor fraction of the overwhelming majority of automotive sales globally. And because the entire supply chain and IP for li-s batteries is being built out in Japan and the US, it means that Japanese battery firms like Idemetsu Kosan and Japanese automotive firms are in a unique position to become the dominant supplier. Much of the capex for re-tooling for this already happened in the 2021-2023 period - Honda, Toyota, and Nissan's IRA benefits were directly tied to this expansion, and all these firms spent billions of their own capital expanding capacity on the assumption that they can begin production by 2028.
- matthewdgreen 2y ago
  There’s a big difference between “becoming dependent on a competitor” and “using a competitor’s products for two to three years so you can shake the bugs out of your EV production process and get a product to market ASAP, then switch to domestic batteries that will soon be available.” This 2/3 year delay in the early part of the adoption curve matters a huge amount for the future of Japan’s EV business, particularly given that China is aggressively working to enter some important markets where Japanese companies have no competing EV product. Buying BYD batteries for two years matters only marginally to the long-term success of BYD.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > This 2/3 year delay in the early part of the adoption curve matters a huge amount for the future of Japan’s EV business > particularly given that China is aggressively working to enter some important markets where Japanese companies have no competing EV product Japan's largest automotive markets other than China (which is basically a lost cause for any non-Chinese player now) are the US, Japan, India, and the EU. All of them have market barriers against Chinese players so 2-3 years is not a major difference, as Japanese players have been tooling for the li-s EV shift for 4 years now already. Also, in Japan and India, you can already buy Japanese branded EVs. And the EU still has the China specific EV tariffs, and is not budging on that. And even large secondary markets like Mexico, Canada, and Brazil continue to retain tariffs against Chinese automotive exports, because they do not wish to lose their own manufacturing capacity. > and “using a competitor’s products for two to three years so you can shake the bugs out of your EV production process and get a product to market ASAP, then switch to domestic batteries that will soon be available.” They are doing this in a limited manner with the bZ3x and bZ4x. --------- I'm not denying EVs are becoming prominent, but EVs are still a minority of overall vehicle sales. They are becoming more prominent, but 2-3 years is not going to change anything given that trade barriers against Chinese automotive players exist in every major market.
    - matthewdgreen 2y ago
      I took these numbers for 2023 and subtracted the US, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. Maybe I did the calculation wrong but I came up with 4,780,248 vehicles sold in the rest of the world, out of a total of 10,307,395. So nearly half of the company’s global sales (by unit) are in markets that are not the major ones you mentioned. Obviously these numbers are going to be smaller by dollar value, but a lot of them are growing markets as well. Can most global car companies stand to risk up to half their global sales? I genuinely don’t know. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2023-full-year-global-toyota-worldwide-car-sales-by-country/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2023-full-year-glob...
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        > 4,780,248 vehicles sold in the rest of the world, out of a total of 10,307,395. > Can most global car companies stand to risk up to half their global sales Overwhelmingly yes, as Japanese players (and their subsidiaries) remain the biggest players in a number of those large secondary markets such as ASEAN [0], Canada, and Mexico. The other remaining large markets like Turkiye or Brazil buy European badged brands that manufacture domestically like in Turkiye (Renault, Fiat, Ford Europe) [1] or Brazil (Fiat, Renault, Volkswagen) [2] Even large secondary markets that are closely allied to China like Iran [3] prefer buying domestic (Saipa, Iran Khodro, Zamyad) over Chinese. Russia is probably the biggest brownfield market that has seen significant uptick in Chinese sales, but those tend to overwhelmingly be ICE vehicles - not EVs [4] Just about every country has enacted stiff tariffs against Chinese automotive exports in 2024, and most have remained silent about the current tariff regime in the US for the same reason, as it now puts their domestic suppliers in a more competitive position compared to Chinese manufacturers because the rate at which China has tariffs is massive compared to any other competitor [5]. For all intents and purposes, it's an economic blockade against China [6] that gives plenty of breathing room for manufacturers with a significant NAM presence. [0] - https://www.focus2move.com/asean-best-selling-cars/ https://www.focus2move.com/asean-best-selling-cars/ [1] - https://www.focus2move.com/turkish-autos-market-2023/ https://www.focus2move.com/turkish-autos-market-2023/ [2] - https://www.focus2move.com/brazil-best-selling-cars/ https://www.focus2move.com/brazil-best-selling-cars/ [3] - https://www.focus2move.com/iranian-vehicles-market/ https://www.focus2move.com/iranian-vehicles-market/ [4] - https://www.focus2move.com/russian-autos-market/ https://www.focus2move.com/russian-autos-market/ [5] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/us-tariffs-seen-as-far-worse-shock-to-china-than-first-trade-war https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/us-tariff... [6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-global-tariffs-hurt-china-with-all-round-blockade-2025-04-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-global-tariffs-hu...

alephnerd 2y ago

> Why not just source batteries anywhere you have to, then start launching EV models just to get the production improvement curves started on the new tech Why give money to direct competitors like BYD or CATL? The whole reason Japan has been hesitant on traditional li-ion batteries has been because they do not own the IP, and do not want to become dependent on a competitor - Japan and China have been in a trade war since 2011-2012 when the naval showdown happened, and Japan and South Korea were in a trade war from 2019 to 2022. METI has spent tens of billions and decades working on and subsidizing research in domestic li-s battery tech, and Japanese companies have been waiting it out as a result. > Japan cannot afford to begin this process in 2028 They can. EV sales remain a minor fraction of the overwhelming majority of automotive sales globally. And because the entire supply chain and IP for li-s batteries is being built out in Japan and the US, it means that Japanese battery firms like Idemetsu Kosan and Japanese automotive firms are in a unique position to become the dominant supplier. Much of the capex for re-tooling for this already happened in the 2021-2023 period - Honda, Toyota, and Nissan's IRA benefits were directly tied to this expansion, and all these firms spent billions of their own capital expanding capacity on the assumption that they can begin production by 2028.

matthewdgreen 2y ago
There’s a big difference between “becoming dependent on a competitor” and “using a competitor’s products for two to three years so you can shake the bugs out of your EV production process and get a product to market ASAP, then switch to domestic batteries that will soon be available.” This 2/3 year delay in the early part of the adoption curve matters a huge amount for the future of Japan’s EV business, particularly given that China is aggressively working to enter some important markets where Japanese companies have no competing EV product. Buying BYD batteries for two years matters only marginally to the long-term success of BYD.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > This 2/3 year delay in the early part of the adoption curve matters a huge amount for the future of Japan’s EV business > particularly given that China is aggressively working to enter some important markets where Japanese companies have no competing EV product Japan's largest automotive markets other than China (which is basically a lost cause for any non-Chinese player now) are the US, Japan, India, and the EU. All of them have market barriers against Chinese players so 2-3 years is not a major difference, as Japanese players have been tooling for the li-s EV shift for 4 years now already. Also, in Japan and India, you can already buy Japanese branded EVs. And the EU still has the China specific EV tariffs, and is not budging on that. And even large secondary markets like Mexico, Canada, and Brazil continue to retain tariffs against Chinese automotive exports, because they do not wish to lose their own manufacturing capacity. > and “using a competitor’s products for two to three years so you can shake the bugs out of your EV production process and get a product to market ASAP, then switch to domestic batteries that will soon be available.” They are doing this in a limited manner with the bZ3x and bZ4x. --------- I'm not denying EVs are becoming prominent, but EVs are still a minority of overall vehicle sales. They are becoming more prominent, but 2-3 years is not going to change anything given that trade barriers against Chinese automotive players exist in every major market.
  - matthewdgreen 2y ago
    I took these numbers for 2023 and subtracted the US, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. Maybe I did the calculation wrong but I came up with 4,780,248 vehicles sold in the rest of the world, out of a total of 10,307,395. So nearly half of the company’s global sales (by unit) are in markets that are not the major ones you mentioned. Obviously these numbers are going to be smaller by dollar value, but a lot of them are growing markets as well. Can most global car companies stand to risk up to half their global sales? I genuinely don’t know. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2023-full-year-global-toyota-worldwide-car-sales-by-country/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2023-full-year-glob...
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > 4,780,248 vehicles sold in the rest of the world, out of a total of 10,307,395. > Can most global car companies stand to risk up to half their global sales Overwhelmingly yes, as Japanese players (and their subsidiaries) remain the biggest players in a number of those large secondary markets such as ASEAN [0], Canada, and Mexico. The other remaining large markets like Turkiye or Brazil buy European badged brands that manufacture domestically like in Turkiye (Renault, Fiat, Ford Europe) [1] or Brazil (Fiat, Renault, Volkswagen) [2] Even large secondary markets that are closely allied to China like Iran [3] prefer buying domestic (Saipa, Iran Khodro, Zamyad) over Chinese. Russia is probably the biggest brownfield market that has seen significant uptick in Chinese sales, but those tend to overwhelmingly be ICE vehicles - not EVs [4] Just about every country has enacted stiff tariffs against Chinese automotive exports in 2024, and most have remained silent about the current tariff regime in the US for the same reason, as it now puts their domestic suppliers in a more competitive position compared to Chinese manufacturers because the rate at which China has tariffs is massive compared to any other competitor [5]. For all intents and purposes, it's an economic blockade against China [6] that gives plenty of breathing room for manufacturers with a significant NAM presence. [0] - https://www.focus2move.com/asean-best-selling-cars/ https://www.focus2move.com/asean-best-selling-cars/ [1] - https://www.focus2move.com/turkish-autos-market-2023/ https://www.focus2move.com/turkish-autos-market-2023/ [2] - https://www.focus2move.com/brazil-best-selling-cars/ https://www.focus2move.com/brazil-best-selling-cars/ [3] - https://www.focus2move.com/iranian-vehicles-market/ https://www.focus2move.com/iranian-vehicles-market/ [4] - https://www.focus2move.com/russian-autos-market/ https://www.focus2move.com/russian-autos-market/ [5] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/us-tariffs-seen-as-far-worse-shock-to-china-than-first-trade-war https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/us-tariff... [6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-global-tariffs-hurt-china-with-all-round-blockade-2025-04-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-global-tariffs-hu...