4 ms·

They are determined to bring back some of the supply chain back to USA I don't know much, but this is the messaging

piva00 1y ago
It's the messaging which you need to apply a reality check: how is it going to happen? Let's say I'm an industrialist, I have an HQ in the USA while my products are made in factories around Asia (China, Vietnam, Taiwan), I invested some US$ dozens of millions to setup production where labour costs are lower, my whole pricing depends on comparative advantages: my USA HQ does R&D by well-paid workers, the designs are then dispatched to be produced at lower cost factories. Now my products will be taxed some 30-50% more, I will have a big drop in sales so the forecast for the foreseeable future is looking like a loss for many quarters, I'd need to invest some US$ dozens of millions to setup factories in the USA, hire people to do the work that Vietnamese workers do but paying US salaries, or invest a ton more in automation and robots to run these factories as cheap as I currently can in Asia. But my financial outlook is pretty bad, I won't be able to sell my products, there's a major risk there so I can't get very low interest loans since no bank can know if I'll be able to pay it. Also, should I invest this in case it will take some 5-10 years to recoup the investment? How will tariffs look like in that time frame? If I invest and competitors don't and tariffs get struck down/removed I will have just burnt money, evaporated it, while my competitors get an advantage by saving it. Repeat this across thousands of companies to get the scale of the dilemma. I will need to put more collateral to get cheaper rates, while it's looking like I will be potentially losing money until I manage to setup these factories. I also need suppliers, and they need to setup shop in the USA as well because if not my inputs will all be more expensive anyway from the tariff tax, so I'm being squeezed in that direction as well. Multiply this by thousands and thousands of companies, all depending on a global supply chain, how the actual fuck will this work out in reality to onshore production when these companies all got squeezed all at the same time? There is no basis in reality for the messaging, it's devoid of any actual plan, any regards for the potential impact not to the "economy™" but to all the people employed by all the affected companies who will see a massive drop in sales, the workers are the consumers and when they get laid off because the companies can't keep paying salaries it will further depress outlooks on sales, turning into even riskier deals for financiers to take to support the necessary investments to onshore production of entire supply chains. To top it all off there will be massive inflation since all prices went up overnight by being taxed through tariffs, less consumer spending, fewer products being purchased, companies earning less, firing people, less consumer spending, fewer purchases, so on and so forth. It's a death spiral completely triggered by maniacs, no confidence crisis, no major shock from a natural disaster (i.e.: a pandemic), just a bunch of lunatics trying to impose a new world order through decree. And stupid people eat this messaging up, they want to believe it will be all fine and dandy even if it's one of the stupidest acts ever taken by a major government... It's all just so fucking stupid, I still can't believe how it is all just plainly so stupid.
- returnInfinity 1y ago
  That's a good analysis, better than what I could come up at least. Trump like tariffs, you can see his old videos about that. There is one offramp, which is that all tariffs come down and trump accepts that as a win. Also Bessent's friend Druckenmiller likes a consumption tax, and they think tariffs are a good consumption tax.
  - piva00 1y ago
    Thank you but I really don't think it should be considered "good analysis". It's an extremely basic analysis made by a layman (me) with just a cursory knowledge of macroeconomics, and average reasoning skills. The case that I could come up with it in 5 minutes while writing a comment on a forum just showcases how braindead this policy is, more than braindead, how one needs to be ideologically compromised to even float this idea as something that could work in reality. Whatever "model" the dumbfucks in the USA administration came up with to justify to themselves any support for this will meet with reality very, very fast, and the major problem here is that they are stubbornly ideological, Trump won't change his fucking demented mind when reality hits, he will double down like he usually does, and all of us will feel the pain, a large majority of the world's population will feel the impacts of this, layoffs are coming if this policy continues even for just a few months, businesses closing (big and small), lots and lots of suffering will be inflicted because Americans decided to elect a stupid man, surrounded by stupid sycophants. Just compare the current administration's background with any other serious nation on Earth, it's bonkers that the Americans are accepting being led by absolutely incompetent people: Education being led by an entertainment business person, Defence being led by a TV host, Health being led by an anti-science person whose claim to fame is being a relative of assassinated politicians, the list goes on and on. It's so absurd that I lost any respect I had left for the USA as a society, it's deathly sick and already rotting... Maybe this is the time it will be put in the coffin, just fucking sucks to feel that my loved ones will all feel the pain of this rotting. Edit: Just as an example of the idiocy, this is a comment from Bessent, probably the person in this administration who is the closest to being more technical: > Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted there didn’t need to be a recession and dismissed the long-term impact of stock market losses, using words like “choppiness” and “adjustment process” to explain the panic. And speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent rejected the idea that people who want to retire soon had taken a serious blow. “Americans who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening,” Bessent said. He added: “The reason the stock market is considered a good investment is because it’s a long-term investment. If you look day-to-day, week-to-week, it’s very risky. Over the long term, it’s a good investment.” The absolute denial of reality, coming from what most would consider the "competent grown up" in the whole administration. Absolute shambles...
lawn 1y ago
"The Jews are responsible for everything bad in the world". I don't know much, but this is the messaging (that I'm going to repeat ad nauseam so that more people will believe it). Don't be a part of the problem.

It's the messaging which you need to apply a reality check: how is it going to happen? Let's say I'm an industrialist, I have an HQ in the USA while my products are made in factories around Asia (China, Vietnam, Taiwan), I invested some US$ dozens of millions to setup production where labour costs are lower, my whole pricing depends on comparative advantages: my USA HQ does R&D by well-paid workers, the designs are then dispatched to be produced at lower cost factories. Now my products will be taxed some 30-50% more, I will have a big drop in sales so the forecast for the foreseeable future is looking like a loss for many quarters, I'd need to invest some US$ dozens of millions to setup factories in the USA, hire people to do the work that Vietnamese workers do but paying US salaries, or invest a ton more in automation and robots to run these factories as cheap as I currently can in Asia. But my financial outlook is pretty bad, I won't be able to sell my products, there's a major risk there so I can't get very low interest loans since no bank can know if I'll be able to pay it. Also, should I invest this in case it will take some 5-10 years to recoup the investment? How will tariffs look like in that time frame? If I invest and competitors don't and tariffs get struck down/removed I will have just burnt money, evaporated it, while my competitors get an advantage by saving it. Repeat this across thousands of companies to get the scale of the dilemma. I will need to put more collateral to get cheaper rates, while it's looking like I will be potentially losing money until I manage to setup these factories. I also need suppliers, and they need to setup shop in the USA as well because if not my inputs will all be more expensive anyway from the tariff tax, so I'm being squeezed in that direction as well. Multiply this by thousands and thousands of companies, all depending on a global supply chain, how the actual fuck will this work out in reality to onshore production when these companies all got squeezed all at the same time? There is no basis in reality for the messaging, it's devoid of any actual plan, any regards for the potential impact not to the "economy™" but to all the people employed by all the affected companies who will see a massive drop in sales, the workers are the consumers and when they get laid off because the companies can't keep paying salaries it will further depress outlooks on sales, turning into even riskier deals for financiers to take to support the necessary investments to onshore production of entire supply chains. To top it all off there will be massive inflation since all prices went up overnight by being taxed through tariffs, less consumer spending, fewer products being purchased, companies earning less, firing people, less consumer spending, fewer purchases, so on and so forth. It's a death spiral completely triggered by maniacs, no confidence crisis, no major shock from a natural disaster (i.e.: a pandemic), just a bunch of lunatics trying to impose a new world order through decree. And stupid people eat this messaging up, they want to believe it will be all fine and dandy even if it's one of the stupidest acts ever taken by a major government... It's all just so fucking stupid, I still can't believe how it is all just plainly so stupid.

returnInfinity 1y ago
That's a good analysis, better than what I could come up at least. Trump like tariffs, you can see his old videos about that. There is one offramp, which is that all tariffs come down and trump accepts that as a win. Also Bessent's friend Druckenmiller likes a consumption tax, and they think tariffs are a good consumption tax.
- piva00 1y ago
  Thank you but I really don't think it should be considered "good analysis". It's an extremely basic analysis made by a layman (me) with just a cursory knowledge of macroeconomics, and average reasoning skills. The case that I could come up with it in 5 minutes while writing a comment on a forum just showcases how braindead this policy is, more than braindead, how one needs to be ideologically compromised to even float this idea as something that could work in reality. Whatever "model" the dumbfucks in the USA administration came up with to justify to themselves any support for this will meet with reality very, very fast, and the major problem here is that they are stubbornly ideological, Trump won't change his fucking demented mind when reality hits, he will double down like he usually does, and all of us will feel the pain, a large majority of the world's population will feel the impacts of this, layoffs are coming if this policy continues even for just a few months, businesses closing (big and small), lots and lots of suffering will be inflicted because Americans decided to elect a stupid man, surrounded by stupid sycophants. Just compare the current administration's background with any other serious nation on Earth, it's bonkers that the Americans are accepting being led by absolutely incompetent people: Education being led by an entertainment business person, Defence being led by a TV host, Health being led by an anti-science person whose claim to fame is being a relative of assassinated politicians, the list goes on and on. It's so absurd that I lost any respect I had left for the USA as a society, it's deathly sick and already rotting... Maybe this is the time it will be put in the coffin, just fucking sucks to feel that my loved ones will all feel the pain of this rotting. Edit: Just as an example of the idiocy, this is a comment from Bessent, probably the person in this administration who is the closest to being more technical: > Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted there didn’t need to be a recession and dismissed the long-term impact of stock market losses, using words like “choppiness” and “adjustment process” to explain the panic. And speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent rejected the idea that people who want to retire soon had taken a serious blow. “Americans who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening,” Bessent said. He added: “The reason the stock market is considered a good investment is because it’s a long-term investment. If you look day-to-day, week-to-week, it’s very risky. Over the long term, it’s a good investment.” The absolute denial of reality, coming from what most would consider the "competent grown up" in the whole administration. Absolute shambles...

lawn 1y ago

"The Jews are responsible for everything bad in the world". I don't know much, but this is the messaging (that I'm going to repeat ad nauseam so that more people will believe it). Don't be a part of the problem.