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Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?
- espadagroup 14y agoInteresting how the author choose to profile only fellows whose ventures had no revenue. Kind of like a indirect finger poking.
- brianlovin 14y agoYeah, that was the first thing I noticed. This article seems to paint the picture that ALL fellows are not generating revenue.
- trimbo 14y agoAre you aware of any that have revenue? If so, please reference it.
- espadagroup 14y agoThe author earlier in the article referenced the fact that a handful had revenue.
- confluence 14y agoThree opposing view points concerning the same subject on Quora: Positive: http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-the-first-Thiel-Fellowship-Class/answer/Danielle-Fong http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-th... Negative: http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-the-first-Thiel-Fellowship-Class/answers/1293281 http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-th... Off topic: http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-the-first-Thiel-Fellowship-Class/answer/Chris-McCann http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-th... Full Question/Answers can be found here: http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-the-first-Thiel-Fellowship-Class http://www.quora.com/Peter-Thiel/What-were-the-results-of-th...
- Jd 14y agotl;dr: Neg: Exhaustive review of individuals showing that nothing of value (except riding on existing trends) can be shown from any applicant, except potentially in the case of the Solar Energy startup, in which money was used to hire PhDs with actual domain knowledge. Pos: Saying that everything great is under NDA and that the solar energy stuff is cool, that the youngin' in question has impressed PhDs enough that they want to work for him. No real info, expecting you to trust that good stuff is in the works.
- confluence 14y agoVery nice. I only have one question for you - what do you think is more reasonable - or are you reserving your judgement? Pos/Neg/Neutral?
- Jd 14y agoI think the "Pos" side should be discounted as it is obviously Thiel centered PR from an employee. I think the "Neg" side should be the default, since one should not presume value until value is demonstrated. That we are still in a sense "early stage" indicates that we don't have a full picture yet and so shouldn't presume that we do. I have mixed feelings about the program in general. Entrepreneurship programs maybe useful for promoting excited entrepreneurs, but by no means are an adequate replacement for researchers or higher ed in general. In many of these cases, the entire premise is hogwash. Technical innovation comes from depth in a subject area, and you actually have to study something before you can innovate in the context of it. This is most obvious in the case of the Uncollege movement -- the person and movement are exceedingly shallow and provide nothing of value except as a publicist for other trends in online education. I'd hate to think that his applies across the board, but suspect that it is more true than not.
- confluence 14y ago> since one should not presume value until value is demonstrated. That we are still in a sense "early stage" indicates that we don't have a full picture yet and so shouldn't presume that we do. Couldn't agree more. Until evidence is confirmed by multiple neutral third parties the negative (random) hypothesis holds precedence until such a time as evidence falsifies it. No presumption - merely rational scepticism there. > I have mixed feelings about the program in general. Entrepreneurship programs maybe useful for promoting excited entrepreneurs, but by no means are an adequate replacement for researchers or higher ed in general. In many of these cases, the entire premise is hogwash. Technical innovation comes from depth in a subject area, and you actually have to study something before you can innovate in the context of it. You perfectly illustrate the problem with one minded thought (as in capitalism > socialism || libertarianism > socialism). As usual a rationally weighted mix is usually best under complex situations.
- Jd 14y agoI believe the title is wrong. Virtually none of the applicants were "dropouts," although some were accepted to prestigious colleges and decided not to go. The program was envisioned as an alternative to college, and most applicants were pre-entry.
- jere 14y agoIf that's true, the "College thing he doesn't miss:" detail is also highly misleading, since it too implies they used to be in college.
- PakG1 14y agoIf you look at the bios of the kids, a bunch of them already had degrees and were in higher level university programs before they entered Thiel's program.
- Jd 14y agoWhat is "a bunch" ? 30% ? I still don't think it makes sense to refer to them as dropouts unless over 50% were enrolled in a college at the time of application and left a higher-degree program in order to do the program.
- PakG1 14y agoSorry if I wasn't clear. I wasn't saying this is why we can call them dropouts. I was trying to say here's more reason why they shouldn't be considered dropouts. And specifically, I was adding to the refutation for the "college he didn't miss thing".
- milesskorpen 14y agoIt was a bit amusing to read that section, since I think a lot of the comments were highly off-base about a college experience (at least my college experience).
- paulhauggis 14y agoThe type of person that will succeed without college won't really need it because they have the drive to succeed. Most people aren't like this.
- roc 14y agoThe whole endeavor is lousy. With regards to 'success', for most people the education you get in college is secondary. What's of primary importance is networking and having that degree on your resume to get you in the door. [1] But networking and having something on your resume that gets you in the door is provided automatically (and arguably in more effective doses) by rubbing elbows with Thiel and likeminded millionaires and billionaires and being featured in news articles. So the 'success' of the participants should be expected to be equivalent-to-better than if they went to college just due the design of this stunt. And it will prove nothing about whether college is useful or not in the general case. Because you can't scale "hang out with Peter Thiel and likeminded movers-and-shakers" beyond a tiny class each year. [1] Which isn't to say that what you learn isn't important. It absolutely is. It just doesn't have much bearing on your business/monetary-axis 'success'.
- randomdata 14y agoTo be fair, it is not exactly clear if college scales either. Around 25% of the working population have a college degree and about 50% have post-secondary training of some kind. Only 5% of the working population earn more than $90,000 per year and the top 25% start earning at only $45,000 per year or so. It's a livable income in many places, but that is not what we generally consider successful in business.
- potatolicious 14y agoThis disappointment is based on an ancient view of the world - that those with post-secondary educations are abnormally high achievers, and thus one would expect greater than average compensation. This hasn't been true for at least 3 decades. Post-secondary training of some sort, whether in a skilled trade or a degree program, is critical even if your ambitions do not stray further than "strictly middle class". Instead of wondering why those with post secondary education aren't rich off their asses, I'm much more concerned about why 50% of the population doesn't have any post-secondary education whatsoever, and how in the hell we expect to keep this population employed and competitive with that foundation.
- wtvanhest 14y agoI wish the question was: Any traction yet? rather than: Any revenue yet?
- trimbo 14y agoHow is traction measurable? [edit] What I mean is, we've witnessed startup after startup with millions of users that go bust. The only way I know of to measure "traction" of a _business_ is revenue.
- acgourley 14y agoBut there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life. For the first few years, traction besides revenue is certainly acceptable evidence of progress.
- potatolicious 14y ago> "But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life." No. No. NO. This is one of the most common stories told in the Valley, but it's also an immense case of confirmation bias. How many companies with millions users had no revenue for a long time and then became immensely successful later on with a viable monetization strategy? Google. Maaaaaybe Facebook, the jury is still out on that... aaaaaand that's about it. The overwhelming, typical case for the "no revenue, all traction" business is death, an acquihire if you're lucky. The fact that there exist a few (by a few I mean one or two) huge outliers does not represent 'plenty of businesses', nor does it represent some kind of trend. Traction-first business with no revenue model baked in have always been the longest throws in software business. So no, traction is absolutely not an acceptable replacement for revenue when representing a business' viability.
- wtvanhest 14y agoI think you are right. A year after getting $100,000 in seed money, they should have some revenue. Maybe not a lot, probably not profitable, but they should have some sales. Worst case, they should be right on the edge of releasing their product. By year 2, no revenue would be a complete disaster for this program. Having 1 in 6 or 1 in 10 make it would also be a disaster.
- dave_sullivan 14y agoI kind of crashed the awards ceremony where they introduced all the fellows and I ended up meeting a bunch of them. I was surprised how many were straight out of high school (no college). They generally struck me as bright but immature (not in an obnoxious way--more in a "what do you expect, they're 17!" kind of way.) Most of the businesses didn't strike me as businesses so much as super ambitious senior projects. I really do agree with the general idea behind the program--college is a ripoff because you can learn the same stuff and build a strong network without going. I think the program's aims might have been better served by having these kids work for a startup (maybe one of thiels?) with an investment guarantee after 3-5 years or something.
- mmaunder 14y agoIt'd be interesting to consider the whole income statement of each individual, rather than just the annual revenue, which no longer has the $35K per year expense of college, while still gaining a significant education.
- TimGebhardt 14y agoAnyone else find it funny that 2 of the 5 are working on education related projects?
- vph 14y agoThis model does not scale! Few college dropouts are bright up to be selected carefully to go through this process. To do this en mass would be a disaster.
- johnnyjustice 14y agoIncorrect, a bunch of students with failed/successful experience is better than a bunch of students who go to college, because they were "suppose" to. I think its best to opt for more freedom, when it comes to picking who they want to spend their adulthood. These new paths aren't for everyone but that's why we should consider this an alternate solution, not a one size fits all one.
- vph 14y ago>Incorrect, a bunch of students with failed/successful experience is better than a bunch of students who go to college, because they were "suppose" to. Not all college students attended college because they are "supposed to". Even for those who attend college because they are "supposed to", it is arguable that they will end up being better than choosing not to go to college. If someone has no idea what he wants to do in life, it's arguable that going to college is better than not going to. The truth is that people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg are rare. Most people need a formal education. It's arrogant to think that you can design better alternative than an educational framework that has existed for years to educate the mass. The Thiel's model works well for a small number of bright youngsters, who might exceed their potentials through a customized training program, instead of going to college to have an off-the-shelf training program. If more and more people drop out of college, or even skip college to do this, it's going to blow up in his face.
- gersh 14y agoBill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs all attended college. They just didn't finish. Yet, I think they all derived some value from the time they spent in college.
- randomdata 14y ago
- dinkumthinkum 14y agoI thought these wunderkinds were supposed to change the world. :) No one argues that these are bright people, the problem is I think this "fellowship" was a lot of hype to promote an idea that ... I don't know, where's the fruit? Sure, there are autodidacts, but as I always say, they are outliers. I do find the education focused ones interesting, in "oh boy" sort of way. We're just taking something as dogma (anti-college) and just running with it, where we're going I don't know. There's no "there" there. I feel like this view is so prevalent in our world of computing because there are really 1) many outliers that are great autodidacts and brilliant programmers (but not as many as is claimed) and 2) there are also many that believe they don't need any kind of education because they saw a YouTube on making RoR apps and follow JS blogs but I don't think the rest of the world is really like this.
- randomdata 14y agoIt has only been one year. College graduate-bound students still have at least three more years to go until they can even consider changing the world. Years five and six will be much more interesting. The way I see it, these people are not foregoing education. They are just receiving it through other, non-traditional, avenues. That does not mean they can learn faster than anyone else though, so it is no surprise that they are going to take a few years to learn before they can start seeing accomplishments.
- jeffdavis 14y ago"We're just taking something as dogma (anti-college) and just running with it, where we're going I don't know. There's no "there" there." You could say the same thing in reverse: it's just opting out of the pro-college dogma. Colleges have a huge amount of overhead like land, buildings, bureaucracy and enticements like fancy campuses and perks; much of it for students studying soft subjects with a lot of grade inflation. It's all paid for by government incentives and a trillion dollars in student loan debt. A lot of studies say that college degrees are still worth the cost, but I'd like to know if such studies control for the self-selection of college students. Is it that college puts people on the path toward success or that people on the path toward success tend to choose college? Also, do the various majors independently justify their costs, or are political science majors lumped with engineers? Today, I'd still probably choose college if I were 18 again (in engineering or one of a few other subjects). But ten years from now, I hope there are better alternatives available (which will make the colleges better, too), and college will just be one option that can survive without government subsidy. Such a change will also improve the liberal arts and soft subjects at colleges. Right now, such subjects are diluted by a lot of people that just don't know what to do, and think that those subjects are easier and leave more time to party. When those people are no longer encouraged by easy money and enticed by fancy campuses, or fear the stigma of not going to college, then the softer subject classes will be left with serious thinkers.
- ruggeri 14y agoI met one the Thiel fellows. His employ? He gives talks about skipping college. It was inane; I don't think I've ever met a more transparent circular argument. I've also met people who dropped out or never went to school, and did amazing stuff during that time. Nobody paid them to do it, though. The problem with children is that they haven't been around the block. Giving them money just for being young and eager only further distorts their warped, child's view of reality. Put me down as not a believer.
- shantanubala 14y agoNot to mention, college is one of the easiest ways for a person to meet other smart people. Not everyone can afford to be in the Bay Area. A smart student can get a full-tuition (and often more!) scholarship at a solid state university with a little bit of effort. Join a few interesting clubs, hang around the dining halls, and pretty soon you can find other hackers, or even just awesome people to talk to. If we're truly going to be investing in teams rather than just investing in ideas, I would place at least some additional value to people who met and worked together in college. It's an experience that's hard to replicate in most places in the US, and seems to allow for strong teams to pop up.
- 10char 14y agoVery interesting that they didn't mention James Proud's Giglocator exit. Maybe they didn't reach out/he decided not to participate in this article, but if you're going for the revenue angle then it should be noted[1] There are also two fellows in YC right now and are literally days from launching their startups. (disclosure: I'm a Thiel Fellow) [1]: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2012/06/20/skip-school-sell-company-meet-the-thiel-fellow-who-just-turned-a-profit/2/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2012/06/20/skip-school-s...
- bentlegen 14y agoThis reads like Giglocator existed before Proud was selected as a Thiel Fellow. > Proud’s early attachment to GigLocator led to his decision to forego a university education long before the Thiel’s 20 Under 20 program had even been thought up.
- Aloisius 14y agoThe vast majority of startups fail and it wouldn't surprise if the vast majority of these kids failed. As long as their lives haven't been ruined by the experience and they come out as well adjusted people, I say more power to them. Disclaimer: I dropped out of high school to start a company almost 20 years ago.
- witoldc 14y agoIf this is the best that the top 24 pics from universities can do, I most certainly wouldn't call this a good criticism of traditional education.