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> Just don't see how this materializes in any meaningful timeframe in the United States — if it's even doable at all. Many people, especially successful busine
by hintymad 2y ago
> Just don't see how this materializes in any meaningful timeframe in the United States — if it's even doable at all.
Many people, especially successful business people, believe this. And this both saddens me and puzzles me. I'm not sure if people still remember, China was dirt poor even in the 1990s. America's manufacturing prowess was the envy of the entire nation. They produced mostly low-end crappy stuff even in the early 2000s. They didn't have "talent density". Instead, their media kept telling people how professional and efficient the American workers were and how efficient the American systems were. I still remember people widely criticized the Chinese government for imposing too many regulations (too many stamps in local terms). By the way, I think that's the right attitude: acknowledge the problems and seek solutions, but that's a different topic. It was Japanese, Taiwanese, Hongkong people, and westerners who brought in investment, talent, and know-hows to China to bootstrap their now-great manufacturing industry. That took only 20 years or less. And now we as Americans have to accept that we can never bring out manufacturing back? What kind of defeatism is that?
Now let's say that Americans and systems are indeed inferior to China's (I really don't believe that), what would happen? We keep deindustrializing the nation? Then what if a war breaks out? Who's going to produce all the weapons and cars and battleships and what not? China? And if we don't produce anything, why in the world would other countries use our services? Are they that stupid that they don't want to climb up the value chain? Case in point, we had this $20K toilet for our air force not because of corruption but because we had to manufacture them in the US! Our cost of manufacturing artillery shell is 10X of that by Russia. Russia! One of the most corrupted countries in the world, yet we still can't be cheaper than them?? It would cost us billions to make a battleship when it would cost China at most hundreds of millions because even a customized screw can be 10X or 100X more expensive if we don't use China's output. Oh, did I mention that our killer drones cost $90K a piece while Chinese drone of better spec would cost only a few thousands?
So, what I really don't get is, how can we believe that we can be prosperous and secure without a robust manufacturing sector. Note I'm not saying that the US must have everything. We can certainly share the supply chains with our allies, but Europe has even worse deindustrialization than us.
- zozbot234 2y agoThe U.S. (indeed to some extent, the West more generally) still has a robust manufacturing sector where it matters, such as military. The stuff is expensive because the jobs involved pay so well, which also creates a further incentive to push for quality over quantity. This is a success story, at least if seen from the POV of manufacturing workers. It's not clear that artificially expanding this beyond military to other stuff would have much effect. The fact is there's plenty of other high-paying jobs around e.g. in services, and it's not possible to just put this cat back in the bag.
- hintymad 2y agoWouldn't the labor cost be amortized over millions and millions of units of production? Yeah, I'd be happy if the cost comes from labor. I worry instead that that cost comes from the fact that we can't mass produce any more and we don't have robust supply chains, especially in the light industry. China's strategy is much more clever than that of the Soviet Unions because China has built a massive light industry, which produces all kinds of components for the heavy industry if needed. And the booming light industry also becomes the source of innovations.
- Ekaros 2y agoAlso what makes China so special is ability to iterate on new complex products. Say small drones. Everyone involved is in close proximity and you can prototype in rapid cycle due to low lead times. If you can get various parts in hours or days instead of weeks, well you can do lot more.