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Isn't his argument contradicted by cheap natural gas? I would think energy is energy, why is the oil form of energy so important? I do wonder why we're not sw

Isn't his argument contradicted by cheap natural gas? I would think energy is energy, why is the oil form of energy so important? I do wonder why we're not switching from oil to natural gas a lot faster though.

VMG 14y ago
That's what this article says: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/90818--jeff-rubin-gets-peak-oil-wrong http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/90818--jeff-rubin-ge... It also says: > Two hundred and twenty five bucks. In April 2008, Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, predicted a barrel of oil would cost $225 by 2012. With oil at $118, it was a controversial call.
- pingswept 14y ago
  For reference, oil is at $113 per barrel today (August 9, 2012).
blindhippo 14y ago
Trouble with natural gas... people are almost as terrified of frac'ing, and shale gas as they are of the evil "tar sands". That said, the rest of the world is investing heavily in Canadian natural gas - it's one of the primary motivators behind the current national debate (in Canada) over pipelines out of Alberta. Can a large cargo ship be run using only liquid natural gas? Can we power generators using just natural gas? I'm very curious about the limits of natural gas as a power source.
- debacle 14y ago
  The only real limit is compression. Many public service vehicles locally are switching over to natural gas.
  - calgaryeng 14y ago
    Not just compression. NG also has a much lower energy density than oil/gasoline. Not as compact
    - blindhippo 14y ago
      Does a natural gas engine work similar to a gasoline engine?
      - maxerickson 14y ago
        The internals are essentially identical. The fuel system needs to be adapted to handle the natural gas though. Looking around, it appears that there are vehicles on the road that can switch at pretty much the push of a button.
        noblethrasher 14y ago
        Yep. Where I work we have a fleet of cars that do just that.
      - tocomment 14y ago
        I just found this article: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4360904 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4360904 It explains the process pretty well. It's really a shame it's so expensive when you really don't need that many parts or modifications.
      - noonespecial 14y ago
        I converted a car I found in a junkyard to work off propane when I was a student in the 90's with nothing but hand tools.
- grammaton 14y ago
  One limit as far as production is concerned is the availability of water. Natural gas production in the United States has declined over the last several months due to drought triggered water shortages. As it turns out showing up and proposing to dump a large amount of the local water supply down a hole in the ground in the middle of the drought is not finding many takers.
patio11 14y ago
I do wonder why we're not switching from oil to natural gas a lot faster though. Short version: The market works. Slightly less short version: You would switch to natural gas if natural gas achieved the same goals at oil at enough of a lower cost to make it worth the switching costs. Part of the cost of oil is based on people's projections of the price of oil in the future; if one expects oil to be much more dear in the future than it is now, one should either buy oil and consume it now or buy oil and sell it later. Buying oil today drives up the price of oiil. One plausible reason one could think that oil would be more expensive in the future is if one thinks demand will outstrip supply. If one believes the future will hold an acceptable substitute for oil, one will be less likely to believe that future demand will exceed supply, and as a result one will believe the future price for oil will decline relative to today. This causes one to sell oil, propagating the price fall in the oil-demand-has-fallen future into the oil-demand-has-not-fallen-yet today. Which, at the margin, slightly delays "the future." Or, to put it another way: the credible announcement that we're ten years away from totally solving fossil fuels would cause the present price of all of them to crater.
grammaton 14y ago
"why is the oil form of energy so important" Because it meets several requirements for an economy of global scale, not the least of which are extremely high energy density and ease of transport. "I do wonder why we're not switching from oil to natural gas a lot faster though." A combination of market forces and the fact that our entire infrastructure is geared towards petroleum - not the sort of thing you can replace with any ease or quickness.

VMG 14y ago

That's what this article says: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/90818--jeff-rubin-gets-peak-oil-wrong http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/90818--jeff-rubin-ge... It also says: > Two hundred and twenty five bucks. In April 2008, Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, predicted a barrel of oil would cost $225 by 2012. With oil at $118, it was a controversial call.

pingswept 14y ago
For reference, oil is at $113 per barrel today (August 9, 2012).

blindhippo 14y ago

Trouble with natural gas... people are almost as terrified of frac'ing, and shale gas as they are of the evil "tar sands". That said, the rest of the world is investing heavily in Canadian natural gas - it's one of the primary motivators behind the current national debate (in Canada) over pipelines out of Alberta. Can a large cargo ship be run using only liquid natural gas? Can we power generators using just natural gas? I'm very curious about the limits of natural gas as a power source.

debacle 14y ago
The only real limit is compression. Many public service vehicles locally are switching over to natural gas.
- calgaryeng 14y ago
  Not just compression. NG also has a much lower energy density than oil/gasoline. Not as compact
  - blindhippo 14y ago
    Does a natural gas engine work similar to a gasoline engine?
    - maxerickson 14y ago
      The internals are essentially identical. The fuel system needs to be adapted to handle the natural gas though. Looking around, it appears that there are vehicles on the road that can switch at pretty much the push of a button.
      - noblethrasher 14y ago
        Yep. Where I work we have a fleet of cars that do just that.
    - tocomment 14y ago
      I just found this article: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4360904 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4360904 It explains the process pretty well. It's really a shame it's so expensive when you really don't need that many parts or modifications.
    - noonespecial 14y ago
      I converted a car I found in a junkyard to work off propane when I was a student in the 90's with nothing but hand tools.
grammaton 14y ago
One limit as far as production is concerned is the availability of water. Natural gas production in the United States has declined over the last several months due to drought triggered water shortages. As it turns out showing up and proposing to dump a large amount of the local water supply down a hole in the ground in the middle of the drought is not finding many takers.

patio11 14y ago

I do wonder why we're not switching from oil to natural gas a lot faster though. Short version: The market works. Slightly less short version: You would switch to natural gas if natural gas achieved the same goals at oil at enough of a lower cost to make it worth the switching costs. Part of the cost of oil is based on people's projections of the price of oil in the future; if one expects oil to be much more dear in the future than it is now, one should either buy oil and consume it now or buy oil and sell it later. Buying oil today drives up the price of oiil. One plausible reason one could think that oil would be more expensive in the future is if one thinks demand will outstrip supply. If one believes the future will hold an acceptable substitute for oil, one will be less likely to believe that future demand will exceed supply, and as a result one will believe the future price for oil will decline relative to today. This causes one to sell oil, propagating the price fall in the oil-demand-has-fallen future into the oil-demand-has-not-fallen-yet today. Which, at the margin, slightly delays "the future." Or, to put it another way: the credible announcement that we're ten years away from totally solving fossil fuels would cause the present price of all of them to crater.

grammaton 14y ago

"why is the oil form of energy so important" Because it meets several requirements for an economy of global scale, not the least of which are extremely high energy density and ease of transport. "I do wonder why we're not switching from oil to natural gas a lot faster though." A combination of market forces and the fact that our entire infrastructure is geared towards petroleum - not the sort of thing you can replace with any ease or quickness.