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The 10Y is well above its September lows, even before accounting for whatever deficit increasing tax cuts the Republicans will come up with.
by shuckles 2y ago
The 10Y is well above its September lows, even before accounting for whatever deficit increasing tax cuts the Republicans will come up with.
- TeaBrain 2y agoYeah, I saw that. I was just looking at a chart of the yield over the last year. The yield has dropped below where it was for most of the last 12 months, besides a less than three month period from late July to early October last year. If Bessent is listening to people like Dalio though, he may be wanting the yield to go down below 3%, which is what I think Dalio said was necessary to avoid a debt spiral.
- shuckles 2y agoI’m sure Trump announcing that he’s considering defaulting on the debt and the 10Y up to its yield from last Monday is all part of the plan too. Acting like investors won’t reprice treasures as “not the risk free rate” if it’s being transparently manipulated by the government is bad analysis.
- TeaBrain 2y agoI'm not making any attempt at analysis, just casual speculation as to the reasoning behind other peoples' actions. You're mistaking my guess-work of others' analysis for my own.
- shuckles 2y agoMy key point is the people involved aren’t doing analysis. They are NPCs just like the worst ideologues on the left; it’s just that their brain worms are that goods trade deficits are bad and some sort of theft. You’re coming to wrong theories about what their intent is because you’re assuming they’re reasoning.