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Bessent had repeatedly been saying that he wanted to drive down the yield on the 10 year treasury. The stock market sell-off has been somewhat effective in doin
by TeaBrain 1y ago
Bessent had repeatedly been saying that he wanted to drive down the yield on the 10 year treasury. The stock market sell-off has been somewhat effective in doing this, with the 10 year's yield having been driven down over 50 basis points in the last two months, although I doubt this precipitous selloff is really what he had in mind.
- shuckles 1y agoThe 10Y is well above its September lows, even before accounting for whatever deficit increasing tax cuts the Republicans will come up with.
- TeaBrain 1y agoYeah, I saw that. I was just looking at a chart of the yield over the last year. The yield has dropped below where it was for most of the last 12 months, besides a less than three month period from late July to early October last year. If Bessent is listening to people like Dalio though, he may be wanting the yield to go down below 3%, which is what I think Dalio said was necessary to avoid a debt spiral.
- shuckles 1y agoI’m sure Trump announcing that he’s considering defaulting on the debt and the 10Y up to its yield from last Monday is all part of the plan too. Acting like investors won’t reprice treasures as “not the risk free rate” if it’s being transparently manipulated by the government is bad analysis.
- TeaBrain 1y agoI'm not making any attempt at analysis, just casual speculation as to the reasoning behind other peoples' actions. You're mistaking my guess-work of others' analysis for my own.
- shuckles 1y agoMy key point is the people involved aren’t doing analysis. They are NPCs just like the worst ideologues on the left; it’s just that their brain worms are that goods trade deficits are bad and some sort of theft. You’re coming to wrong theories about what their intent is because you’re assuming they’re reasoning.