4 ms·

This is the week when "Tech and Finance bro" start turning against Trump, unless he does something quickly. Bessent, the only sane member of Trump's cabinet, s

This is the week when "Tech and Finance bro" start turning against Trump, unless he does something quickly. Bessent, the only sane member of Trump's cabinet, sounded really worried and stressed last days. This kind of damage, cannot be undone just by saying 'Hey, it was art of the deal'. Confidence in US government is destroyed. Sure there will announcements about 100s or 1000s of Billions that will be invested, but it's just words. Just like DOGE saved how much already ? 1 Trillion $ ? And still not a single person was charged with fraud... S&P is down 2.5% on 1Y, and up 80% on 5Y, and valuations are at insane, Dot-com bubble levels. If he keeps the tariffs though, the damage can become much much more substantial that this relatively small decline in the markets. "When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king, the palace becomes a circus" Turkish Proverb.

thfuran 2y ago
>Confidence in US government is destroyed. That has long been a Republican goal. They want to tear it apart and sell the pieces.
- bamboozled 2y ago
  For what gain ?
  - pseudalopex 2y ago
    Profit opportunities for them and their supporters. Buying the pieces at discounted prices. Selling the public the services the government used to provide. Converting costs to externalities. And some believe axiomatically governments are inefficient and businesses are efficient.
    - bamboozled 2y ago
      Well then they will live in a shittier place with (maybe) a little more money in the bank, which will likely be worth less than it was before the dismantling.
- fzeroracer 2y ago
  It's their goal, but rather than the typical approach of 'starving the beast' they're just shooting the beast in broad daylight on 5th street. Which I think makes it much harder to ignore the person holding the gun. Outside of the full cult sycophants.
TeaBrain 2y ago
Bessent had repeatedly been saying that he wanted to drive down the yield on the 10 year treasury. The stock market sell-off has been somewhat effective in doing this, with the 10 year's yield having been driven down over 50 basis points in the last two months, although I doubt this precipitous selloff is really what he had in mind.
- shuckles 2y ago
  The 10Y is well above its September lows, even before accounting for whatever deficit increasing tax cuts the Republicans will come up with.
  - TeaBrain 2y ago
    Yeah, I saw that. I was just looking at a chart of the yield over the last year. The yield has dropped below where it was for most of the last 12 months, besides a less than three month period from late July to early October last year. If Bessent is listening to people like Dalio though, he may be wanting the yield to go down below 3%, which is what I think Dalio said was necessary to avoid a debt spiral.
    - shuckles 2y ago
      I’m sure Trump announcing that he’s considering defaulting on the debt and the 10Y up to its yield from last Monday is all part of the plan too. Acting like investors won’t reprice treasures as “not the risk free rate” if it’s being transparently manipulated by the government is bad analysis.
      - TeaBrain 2y ago
        I'm not making any attempt at analysis, just casual speculation as to the reasoning behind other peoples' actions. You're mistaking my guess-work of others' analysis for my own.
        shuckles 2y ago
KoolKat23 2y ago
I thought Bessent was one of the architects of this tariff plan?
- TheAlchemist 2y ago
  He was supposed to be. But he was clearly left out of the loop - look for interviews with him from the Liberation Day. He cleary had no clue what just happend and was very nervous.
- llm_nerd 2y ago
  He clearly is an outsider. He seldom has any idea what is going on and seems panicked. Even Lutnick, despite being used in an unending series of cable news soundbites saying incredibly out of touch, stupid thing, clearly is just a bystander. Trade policy is being set by Trump, Navarro (you know, the guy who made up a trade expert to launder his own idiotic ideas) and that vile goblin Stephen Miller. An idiot council.

thfuran 2y ago

>Confidence in US government is destroyed. That has long been a Republican goal. They want to tear it apart and sell the pieces.

bamboozled 2y ago
For what gain ?
- pseudalopex 2y ago
  Profit opportunities for them and their supporters. Buying the pieces at discounted prices. Selling the public the services the government used to provide. Converting costs to externalities. And some believe axiomatically governments are inefficient and businesses are efficient.
  - bamboozled 2y ago
    Well then they will live in a shittier place with (maybe) a little more money in the bank, which will likely be worth less than it was before the dismantling.
fzeroracer 2y ago
It's their goal, but rather than the typical approach of 'starving the beast' they're just shooting the beast in broad daylight on 5th street. Which I think makes it much harder to ignore the person holding the gun. Outside of the full cult sycophants.

TeaBrain 2y ago

Bessent had repeatedly been saying that he wanted to drive down the yield on the 10 year treasury. The stock market sell-off has been somewhat effective in doing this, with the 10 year's yield having been driven down over 50 basis points in the last two months, although I doubt this precipitous selloff is really what he had in mind.

shuckles 2y ago
The 10Y is well above its September lows, even before accounting for whatever deficit increasing tax cuts the Republicans will come up with.
- TeaBrain 2y ago
  Yeah, I saw that. I was just looking at a chart of the yield over the last year. The yield has dropped below where it was for most of the last 12 months, besides a less than three month period from late July to early October last year. If Bessent is listening to people like Dalio though, he may be wanting the yield to go down below 3%, which is what I think Dalio said was necessary to avoid a debt spiral.
  - shuckles 2y ago
    I’m sure Trump announcing that he’s considering defaulting on the debt and the 10Y up to its yield from last Monday is all part of the plan too. Acting like investors won’t reprice treasures as “not the risk free rate” if it’s being transparently manipulated by the government is bad analysis.
    - TeaBrain 2y ago
      I'm not making any attempt at analysis, just casual speculation as to the reasoning behind other peoples' actions. You're mistaking my guess-work of others' analysis for my own.
      - shuckles 2y ago

KoolKat23 2y ago

I thought Bessent was one of the architects of this tariff plan?

TheAlchemist 2y ago
He was supposed to be. But he was clearly left out of the loop - look for interviews with him from the Liberation Day. He cleary had no clue what just happend and was very nervous.
llm_nerd 2y ago
He clearly is an outsider. He seldom has any idea what is going on and seems panicked. Even Lutnick, despite being used in an unending series of cable news soundbites saying incredibly out of touch, stupid thing, clearly is just a bystander. Trade policy is being set by Trump, Navarro (you know, the guy who made up a trade expert to launder his own idiotic ideas) and that vile goblin Stephen Miller. An idiot council.