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If Tesla is Level 2, that link doesn’t support the OPs point about “all” incidents, but rather only those involved in a fatality, hospital treatment, airbag dep

by bumby 2y ago

If Tesla is Level 2, that link doesn’t support the OPs point about “all” incidents, but rather only those involved in a fatality, hospital treatment, airbag deployment, or towed vehicle. Am I reading that link correctly?

smallmancontrov 2y ago
The problem with "all" incidents is that reporting bias drowns the whole thing in noise. I clipped a curb the other year and didn't report it to anyone -- am I messing up the statistics? In contrast, hospitalizations and bodies are concrete enough to all but eliminate reporting bias. Of course, at first this just substitutes one type of problem for another because even shitty drivers have to drive many lifetimes of distance before killing anyone so you wind up with the unfortunately named "shot noise" from small-N. But Tesla FSD drives so many miles that the statistics are no longer small-N. If supervised FSD was worse than human, we should be seeing many more bodies than we do, so supervised FSD is clearly better than human. Of course, that number needs to be adjusted for critical interventions before we can say anything about unsupervised FSD, and in an ideal universe I wish Tesla was forced to disclose those figures. Unfortunately, we live in a universe where luddites are firmly in control of this conversation and I cannot deny that a forced disclosure would be heavily abused in a way that costs lives. Still, regulators get to see the numbers before approving unsupervised rollouts, and as a compromise this makes neither myself nor the luddites happy but I suppose it will do.
- bumby 2y ago
  It almost belies a need for some sort of standardized testing as well. Self-reporting seems like a weak point that can be gamed. To your point about luddites, that’s why I think it’s erroneous to use “as good as a human” as the metric. It will need to be much better than a human but those people reluctantly trust it enough to hand over control.

by bumby 2y ago

smallmancontrov 2y ago

The problem with "all" incidents is that reporting bias drowns the whole thing in noise. I clipped a curb the other year and didn't report it to anyone -- am I messing up the statistics? In contrast, hospitalizations and bodies are concrete enough to all but eliminate reporting bias. Of course, at first this just substitutes one type of problem for another because even shitty drivers have to drive many lifetimes of distance before killing anyone so you wind up with the unfortunately named "shot noise" from small-N. But Tesla FSD drives so many miles that the statistics are no longer small-N. If supervised FSD was worse than human, we should be seeing many more bodies than we do, so supervised FSD is clearly better than human. Of course, that number needs to be adjusted for critical interventions before we can say anything about unsupervised FSD, and in an ideal universe I wish Tesla was forced to disclose those figures. Unfortunately, we live in a universe where luddites are firmly in control of this conversation and I cannot deny that a forced disclosure would be heavily abused in a way that costs lives. Still, regulators get to see the numbers before approving unsupervised rollouts, and as a compromise this makes neither myself nor the luddites happy but I suppose it will do.

bumby 2y ago
It almost belies a need for some sort of standardized testing as well. Self-reporting seems like a weak point that can be gamed. To your point about luddites, that’s why I think it’s erroneous to use “as good as a human” as the metric. It will need to be much better than a human but those people reluctantly trust it enough to hand over control.